Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Tropical Hysteria Has Already Begun...

Watching all 3 main channels tonight & they all lead with the POTENTIAL tropical development for the Gulf this weekend.  Just watched David Bernard post some great information on the FOX 8 Facebook page and I’d suggest you go watch him if you want a lengthy discussion as to what might happen.   Here’s what I see.   NHC has designated Invest 90L as an area to watch down in the extreme southern Caribbean and many computer models have SE LA/MS as the bullseye for landfall late Sunday into Monday.   Satellite loops suggest there may be a low level circulation, however, there are no T-Storms around it RIGHT NOW.  Strong upper level wind shear is currently over the Gulf and there is a weak upper low just north of 90L.   The environmental conditions are far different now than when Harvey, Irma, Jose & Maria formed several weeks ago.  IF 90L was to get better organized, and become our next named storm (Nate), he would be limited by some wind shear both surface and aloft.   The MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation) is NOT in the favorable (rising air) phase like it was back in late August & Sept.   There is nothing yet to track so I don’t mind being the bullseye at 5 days out.   Historically, October storms in the Gulf are far weaker than those in August & September and tend to turn to the east before reaching us.  My concerns tonight are 1) the persistent easterly winds for the past 3-4 days have water level very high all around SE LA/MS and into Lake Pontchartrain.  If even a small tropical system were to come close, we could see significant flooding outside the levee protection (risk reduction) system.   2)  The cold front coming for later next week will not get here soon enough to block Nate. 3) the European model, which has been by far the more accurate model this summer, turns out to be wrong.  You see the Euro turns Nate well to our east and takes him into the Florida Panhandle.  That would keep most of his impacts away from us.  But what if the Euro is wrong?   Then we could be dealing with a strong tropical storm or Cat. 1 hurricane for Sunday into Monday.    This would not be an evacuation type storm for most of us inside the levee protection system.  For those outside, yes there could be some major water impacts.   Bottom line…until the center forms, there is huge UNCERTAINTY.   90L could never get started due to interaction with Central America.  I suggest no one needs to change weekend plans YET.  It is not time to hyperventilate and start taking anxiety drugs.  Let’s just wait and see what another day of model runs bring and watch to see if Nate really forms.   And yes, go watch David’s update below.

1 comment:

Jill Billiot said...

Y'all saying like it's nothing to worry about, but from experience with Hurricane Isaac which by the way was a category 1. It had significantly damage my home. So Nate can very well damaged my home again.