Thursday, January 25, 2018

Here Comes Parade Time...

I really hated when parade time rolled around since people wanted to know what the weather would be…waaay in advance.  Ch. 4 started a “countdown to Carnival” years ago that projected the weather out to 14 days.  I always hated to see that since it implied some kind of skill 2 weeks ahead of time.   Carl would always say this is only an outlook and would probably change several times (then why show it?), but I knew the general public  only saw it as a “forecast”.     I gave the Krewe of Endymion forecast on the Tuesday before their parade for 30 years and that was only 4 days in advance.   When I started in TV back in 1971, there was the 5 day Forecast.  Sometime in the 90s, that expanded to the 7 day forecast.   Now some weathercasters want you to believe that they have a clue at day 10+?  C’mon.   The facts are the accuracy of the forecast DRASTICALLY diminishes beyond 2-3 days.   4-5 days offers some skill, but beyond that it’s a wild guess that often is wrong.   Having said that, let me try to give you my feelings for the next 10-14 days.   Overall, the pattern is setting up to be cool to cold.  Alaska remains 40-45 below zero tonight and models continue to show a trough developing over the central plains & east coast.   What we’re not sure about is how deep will the trough dig?   Arctic air will return to the folks up north, but how far south will it plunge?   RIGHT NOW, it appears the real cold will reach us on Endymion Saturday with the rain moving out but temperatures falling during the day.   It could be in the 30s for parade time with brisk north winds making it feel colder.  Bacchus looks cold but dry and I really have no clue beyond that.  If I had to bet the house, (which I wouldn’t) I’d say Mardi Gras will be on the chilly side.


In the short term, we’ll have to deal with a system coming out of the Gulf that could make for a rainy Saturday.   Friday looks dry until after dark with the best chances for rain beginning after 10 AM Saturday until lasting until after dark.  Sunday should be dry turning cooler late with Monday & Tuesday rather chilly again.   I see no freezes coming during the next 5-7 days.  Stay tuned!

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