Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Bewitched, Bothered & Bewildered...

I remember a song from the musical Pal Joey(1940) that was sung by a woman who thought she had men figured out, but then again she didn’t.  That’s the way I feel about the computer models lately.  I’m bewitched, bothered & bewildered as models seem to be clueless regarding disturbances in the SW upper flow.   For example, today I played golf.  It was a beautiful (75-80) day, however, we had the course almost to ourselves.  Why?  Could be that yesterday the models said we’d have some showers in the morning lingering into the afternoon and perhaps ending by parade time.   Wrong!  This SW upper flow really strains the accuracy of the models since the flow originates over the Pacific in a data sparse region.  Without much data, models can’t figure out the timing of disturbances racing through the flow.   What does it all mean?  Frankly, you cannot rely on a forecast beyond 1-2 days with this pattern.   Sure the models still look wet for Friday PM through Sunday, but I am not comfortable saying when (timing) the rains will be here or not be here.   Obviously that is not the solution folks are looking for, but it’s the truth and I can’t handle the truth RIGHT NOW !  Remember, today was supposed to be ugly & it wasn’t until after 4 PM.     


In the short term, Thursday looks to be the only day where rain won’t be an issue.   Highs will be 20-25 degrees cooler than today’s record tying 80, but there will be no rain.  Friday will be milder (60s), but the shower threat will return perhaps as soon as late afternoon.  The rain chances don’t look great (20-30%) compared to Saturday (70-80%) or Sunday (60-70%), but they will not be zero.   Monday & Tuesday?  Clueless except to say temperatures will be mild to warm (60s-70s).  Stay tuned as the forecast is likely to change day to day.

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