Thursday, April 5, 2018

Careful Crying Wolf...

One of the issues I faced during my broadcasting career was scaring people if/when severe weather threatened.  I feared if I kept saying we have the potential for severe weather each time a cold front pushed through & then little or nothing happened, how would my viewers react?   Translation…what if you always cried wolf, but the wolf never comes…will viewers start to tuned you out?  We are in another one of those set ups with SPC (Storm Prediction Center) placing northern LA/MS in a level 3 (enhanced risk) area for late Friday into early Saturday with a lesser risk (level 1 & 2 ) for our viewing area.    If I were still on-air, I’d be pointing out we are in a very fast progressive upper pattern that does NOT favor a widespread tornado outbreak, but more likely a straight line wind damage event caused by a squall line of T-Storms with the greatest danger staying north of Lake Pontchartrain.  The SPC is very good at what they do & I like to watch where they move the “bullseye” risk area showing where the greatest threats are likely.   Much like the last front, any severe threat appears likely to happen at night and that’s why you need the FOX 8 weather app to keep you safe while you sleep.  


Friday should be a warm, muggy Spring day with highs flirting with 80 before our next front cools us for Saturday & Sunday with highs mainly 65-70.  A brief warm up happens Monday into Tuesday before yet another front comes bring more showers followed by cooler air.   That pattern of fronts every 3-4 days likely will continue for the next 10-14 days.  My garden is loving it as each front brings needed rain and the cooler nights allowing my annuals to keep going before the summer heat arrives.  Checked on my satsuma tree to see if any of its blossoms survived the last storm & the answer is no.  So, in its 4th year the tree will produce no fruit.  Decision time is coming…to remove or not remove?  That is the question.


There are now 4 preseason hurricane forecasts out ranging from slightly below average to slightly above average to “we all gonna die! (cry wolf).   I like what Dr. Masters pointed out on his blog.  The early season hurricane forecasts show LITTLE SKILL over climatology.   They make for interesting reading, but they provide little useful information.  Stay tuned!

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