Sunday, May 27, 2018

Alberto Slows But Still Struggles...

Not much new to report as satellite loops indicate the surface center is right under the Upper low. NHC says the window for strengthening is about closed, but what bothers me is the forward motion has slowed from 15 mph yesterday to 9 mph tonight.  In fact, to me, it looks like there is little motion.   The official NHC track still brings Alberto into the Florida beaches and it's hard to go against model guidance so close to the coast.  Suffice to say, the models have not handled Alberto very well partly because he's been so weak and disorganized and models don't do as well with weak storms.   The Florida beaches look to be ugly this Memorial Day, but LA/MS will be on the drier side with little rain chances.  Even though Alberto will not be a major storm, the dollar loss will be tremendous, not from storm damage, but from lost revenue due to cancellations along the beaches from Mississippi to Tampa.  As this system leaves, the MJO is heading towards the unfavorable (sinking air) mode for the next month meaning there should be little, if any tropical development the next 15-30 days.  Stay tuned!

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