Friday, May 25, 2018

Alberto Struggling to Survive

As I mentioned in my afternoon blog, it appeared the center of Alberto was moving to the east and not to the north.  NHC picked up on that and based on data from the hurricane hunters, shifted the movement eastward.  Because of that and new model runs shifting farther to the east, they shifted their center line track from the west side of Mobile Bay to the east side.   If this trend continues, and I think it will, the bulk of the impacts will be from the MS/AL border eastward into Florida beaches.   It also would mean for us very little impacts.   So what should we watch for?   Let's see if this eastward trend continues.  We are still in the westward part of the cone of error, but any farther eastward shift will remove the cone from us. Of some concern is some of the intensity forecasts bring Alberto to minimal hurricane strength before landfall.  Remember the models have not been very accurate with intensity forecasts in the past and they may be wrong again.  Is it time to say we're home free?  Nope, but I'm feeling better seeing this eastward shift.  If it continues, it would verify the VIPIR forecast from yesterday.  Bottom line, NOLA looks less likely to see flooding rains with the bullseye now from Mobile Bay eastward to the Florida Beaches.  If I'm at the beach, I think you could still enjoy some early sun on Sat-Sunday before the real wet stuff arrives for Monday.  I would leave late Sunday PM to beat the really bad stuff, and it will be bad, Sunday night into early Tuesday.  Could some wide card show up and steer Alberto back closer to us?  Absolutely!  Remember, Alberto has still not reached the southern Gulf.  Plenty of time for (as the lawyer says) stuff happens.   Stay tuned!

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