NHC has upped their probability of development from 40 to 50% tonight despite the fact that there is still little indication of any surface low pressure over the western Caribbean. I think they are putting their faith into the Euro model which continues to bring a disturbance right into southeastern Louisiana over the weekend. Here’s my issue. There still is nothing to track. The Gulf is a very hostile environment tonight with lots of wind shear. The GFS model continues to favor a more eastern Gulf scenario which would mean much less impact for us. I must tell you I don’t like the Euro stalling the system over us for late week into early next week. That could mean some very heavy rain totals (5-10”+) over several days. Bottom line, there is still great uncertainty over what may form and where and when it will go. I don’t want to get into scaring folks to cancel trips, or cancel outdoor events since the uncertainty is so high that confidence in the local forecast remains very low. Do I believe we’ll see some rain this weekend? Absolutely! Do I think it’ll be a total wash out? Don’t know. Could it be not bad with most of the storms staying to our east? Sure. Let’s not get over alarmed by something that is not there yet. Stay tuned!