Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Stray Showers Finally Develop...

As the sun angle gets higher creating more intense surface heating, daily  showers usually start showing up when enough low level moisture returns.  Today was one of those days where several isolated storms developed but didn’t last long.   Margaret Orr showed a picture from Perino’s on Vets that had part of their tin roof blown off.  I live less than a mile away & didn’t get any rain.   That’s how summer storms are…more vertical in growth than horizontal in width.     We are headed into the season where the triggers for storms are 1) daytime heating , 2) sea/lake breeze fronts, 3) upper air disturbances and 4) tropical systems.   The GFS continues to try to develop a tropical system in the Gulf in the 10-12 day time frame.  # days ago it had a storm moving west of us, then 2 days ago shifted it more towards Florida while today’s run brings it back into the central Gulf.  I did notice a swirl of low level clouds down in the Caribbean south of the Cayman Islands.  Could this be what the models are picking up on?    It’s far too soon to believe that the models are correct since there is nothing to track yet.  Also, there is fast upper westerly winds over the Gulf which would hinder development.   If nothing forms, this will be a big embarrassment for the GFS model which has hinted for 3 days that something would form.  The European shows nothing forming like the GFS model.  We shall see .


Locally, aside from a stray PM shower, I see no major weather changes for the next 2 days.  Stay tuned!

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