Another Hurricane Season has begun, but as we have already seen with Alberto, those “official” dates mean little. In fact, historically, the hurricanes during June that have affected Louisiana are minor with Audrey (1957) being the exception. Our real “pay attention time” is usually from July 15th thru October 10th. That’s when the really big storms develop as water temperatures are at their highest and cold fronts have yet to arrive. Speaking of water temperatures, the below normal water temps of the tropical Atlantic have caused several of the seasonal companies that predict the # of storms coming to LOWER their earlier predictions. In fact, one company doesn’t even expect double digit numbers of named storms. Since we already have had Alberto, that means only 8 more named storms this season. Who knows? Don’t put too much faith in those forecasts, but that would be nice to see a mainly quiet summer, especially in the Gulf. I’ll have more on hurricane preparedness tomorrow. The GFS is doing its usual long range 10-14 days development in the Gulf. No other model sees that so the GFS is probably out to lunch. Models do hint at development in the Pacific and NHC gives it a 50% chance for later next week.
Watching David show the upper high building over us for Saturday & Sunday and then backing off for next week tells me we’re likely to get under the “ring of fire” pattern that often develops in the summer. Strong clusters of T-Storms will rotate around the upper high dumping heavy rains with gusty winds and some hail. We need the rain, but not the severe parts. The GFS even pushes a weak front offshore Sunday night into Tuesday bringing less humid air to us. That will mean slightly cooler nights (especially on the North Shore), but still very hot days. The “ ring of fire” pattern should develop for later next week. Stay tuned!