Sunday, June 17, 2018

Gulf Still Churning...

It’s a really interesting satellite & radar views of the Gulf tonight.   Coastal radars are showing a LOW LEVEL spin south of Lake Charles and east of Houston while the water vapor loop hangs on to an UPPER low over the Bay of Campeche.  To me it appears an UPPER ridge is trying to form over the low level spin off the Louisiana coast.   NHC keeps the probability of development at 20% but does not mention any of these systems except to say a “surface trough” is over the Gulf.  With the MJO going into the favorable (rising air) phase, I would not be surprised if something did develop just before it reaches the Texas coast as offshore buoys are already gusting over 40 knots.  RIGHT NOW, there is not a closed surface circulation, but I’ll be watching that low level radar spin for later tonight and Monday.   Whether something forms or not, coastal Texas is in for several days of heavy rainfall.     We are enjoying a refreshing breeze out there tonight while it is quite nasty along the coast and offshore in the Gulf.    Once this Gulf disturbance pushes away, the rest of the week for us should be pretty much basic summertime with our usual 90+ temperatures & humidity with a few storms bubbling up during daytime heating.   None of the models are showing any tropical development during the next 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!

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