Monday, June 18, 2018

Models Struggle With Weaker Systems...

Today was way more rainy than yesterday’s computer models predicted while Sunday was supposed to be wetter, but turned out mostly dry.   We have been following a large disorganized area of clouds & showers from the Yucatan into the western Gulf.    Sure there have been winds 40-50 mph in some squalls over the Gulf, but over all, this system has stayed very weak.   Even though computer technology has improved greatly, models still struggle with weaker systems.   Generally, the stronger the storm, the more reliable is the forecast.    Last night’s swirl over the NW Gulf moved inland this afternoon while tonight’s satellite loop has a weak swirl SW of Houston.  Radar loops have another weak swirl SE of Corpus with a large rain shield remaining to the east.   Most of this rain should stay to our west with the majority shifting farther to the west over the lower Texas coast where 5-10” could fall during the next several days.   Locally we should begin to see a return to “normal” (unlike today) clouds & showers and that should result in highs back to 90+.  Today only reached the upper 70s to low 80s with all the clouds & showers, a welcomed break from our usual brutal heat. 


Long term models continue to show no tropical development (outside the current Texas/SW LA.  system) for the next 7-10 days.  June is typically a quiet month for tropical activity and this year should follow that pattern.  Signs continue to point to a developing El Nino in the Pacific and that could result in stronger wind shear across the Gulf & Caribbean come August into October.  Stronger upper shear usually results in fewer named storms.  We hope so.  Stay tuned!

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