Back before I left for a trip to Charleston & Savannah, I mentioned that the GFS model was daily predicting a tropical disturbance might develop in the Gulf. It’s still doing that again today, but NHC has started to issue probabilities (20%) that something might develop. Why am I to doubt that? Just because the GFS (American) model has “predicted” for over 2 weeks something would form, why should I not believe it? Call me “old school” , but I don’t like to track/get nervous over something that isn’t there yet. Watching TWC (The Weather Channel) this evening and Dr. Knabb showed a glob of tropical moisture is likely to surge over the western Gulf into Texas by this weekend, but even he seemed skeptical that anything might develop. We do have a weak rotation on tonight’s satellite loops, but it appears it’s a mid-level swirl and not at the surface. Regardless, We’ll have days to watch this “thing” IF there is any development, but it appears any concern (heavy rainfall) is focused on the western Gulf and not on us. Meanwhile, out in the eastern Pacific, Cat. 3 Hurricane Bud presents a well-defined eye on tonight’s satellite pictures. He’s forecasted to head northward eventually over the desert Southwest bringing a threat for heavy flooding rainfall there. My experience tells me when the Pacific is active, the Gulf & Atlantic are not. That’s not a hard & fast rule and I’m sure there have been many exceptions. I’d be somewhat nervous if we had something to track in the Atlantic, but so far that is not the case.
I returned to a yard that obvious has seen some rainfall over the past week. My gage showed 1.36” and all my plants & flowers are doing great. The daily rain showers are what keeps us from getting too hot at this time of the year. The rest of this week should see more scattered storms. Some will get drenched, while others nearby could see little or zero. That’s summer in the South. Stay tuned!
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