After sitting for 2 days churning (upwelling) cooler water to the surface restricting development, Chris started his move to the NE this morning and buda bing, explosive development over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. This is hurricane # 2 and it’s only July 10th. Tonight’s satellite loop shows a classic hurricane and I’m sure Chris will be upgraded from a Cat. 1 (85 MPH) to a Cat. 2 (100+) on the next advisory. Doesn’t matter since he’s heading to the NE away from the U.S. The remains of Beryl are still churning thru the Turks & Cacaos islands tonight. NHC still thinks he could make a comeback, but again, Who cares since she’ll be well east of the U. S.? With the MJO going into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase, I expect the next 3-4 weeks to stay quiet in our part of the World. That should get us into August when, hopefully, El Nino will strengthen creating more wind shear over the Caribbean & Atlantic basins. Right Now we are running way ahead of normal regarding the “average date” of the 2nd hurricane. Usually that doesn’t happen until early August. A quiet few weeks would get us back to “normal”.
Today’s rain coverage was noticeable less than yesterday’s. I’m glad I’m retired since satellite loops don’t really show why tomorrow will be more active. We remain of the underside of a large upper ridge and storm motion will be from the NNW to the SSE tomorrow. I suspect since today’s coverage was roughly 20%, getting back to our “normal” 30-40% on Wednesday will be a no brainer. Stay tuned!