A typical summertime pattern for us has morning storms along the coast redeveloping inland during daytime heating and decreasing before dark. You know something is going on when storms keep firing AFTER the sun goes down. Usually you can look at satellite & water vapor loops to find an upper air disturbance triggering the action, but that is not the case tonight. In fact, there is a cyclonic (clockwise) rotation centered over central Mississippi with clusters of storms developing, not around it but underneath it. So let’s check the surface map. No clues help us there as we have no fronts around. So I guess it must be some weak disturbances between the surface & 18-20,000’ (500 mb level). Models are taking the upper high farther to the west leaving a general trough over the eastern states including us. That SHOULD mean higher than normal rain coverage for the next 2-3 days. By the weekend, the upper high will try to build back over us decreasing our rain coverage and increasing temps once again. Computer guidance has highs back into the mid-90s, but I’m not so sure for 2 reasons. 1) I see yet another trough trying to push down over the eastern states keeping the upper ridge farther to our west. 2) If we do get lots of rainfall the next couple of days, that should help keep highs to the lower 90s as the sun will need to evaporate all the surface moisture before we really heat up. Bottom line, expect our daily storms to be more numerous through Friday with less activity for Saturday & Sunday.
All quiet over the Tropics with no signs of development. However, I did mention last night, if anything tries to form during the next week, it will be along an old cold front that will push off the Carolina Coast and stall just to our north. Stay tuned!
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