Major Pattern Shift Coming...

For several weeks we have seen a large upper ridge (high) centered from the central plains through the Ohio Valley to the east coast.   Temperatures have been well above normal summer highs, but that is about to change.  Computer guidance is shifting the upper high back over the Southwestern states with a deepening east coast trough.  That should start a parade of cold fronts coming out of Canada and the worst heat of this summer maybe over for many places from the Great lakes into the Northeast.   Unfortunately it’s way too soon for those fronts to have much effect on us down South except to increase our rain chances as fronts stall over us or nearby.   With the MJO in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase, it’s highly unlikely any tropical development will happen, however, that’s how Hurricane Alicia formed back in 1983.   A frontal boundary pushed off the LA. Coastline down about 100 miles south of Grand Isle.   A swirl developed along this boundary and quickly organized into a Tropical Storm & then a Cat. 3 hurricane.  Fortunately for us, it moved westward and slammed into Houston doing lots of damage to the glass towers of downtown.  Don’t see anything like that happening, but we always watch summer fronts that push down towards us.   With higher rain chances coming, hopefully we’ll seen highs less hot?  Otherwise, it’s July, it’s hot, it’s humid with mainly daytime heating type storms.  One thing that is not “normal” is the position of the surface Bermuda High/Atlantic Ridge.  Usually the axis of the ridge is to our north giving us a SSE wind flow.   Lately, the axis is way down over the central Gulf producing a SW thru NW surface flow.  If you do any fishing, you know a “west wind is not the best”.  In fact, west winds usually mean muddy waters/poor visibilities so it’s really hard to get the fish to bite.  That will be the problem for those who want to fish this week.  The Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is the following weekend ( July 26-28^th) so hopefully the SE flow will be back by then?  Stay tuned!