There are 3 systems in the Eastern Pacific that could all have names by tomorrow while the Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf remain quiet. NHC has lowered their probability for development of that upper low in the central Atlantic down to 20% tonight and none of the models bring it close to land. In fact, they take whatever is there back to the NE later this week. We will get though the 1st half of August with no tropical threats in the Gulf, but that is typically the case. Remember the peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10th with the ramp up starting around August 15th and the ramp down for us ending around the 1st week of October. Oh sure we can get a late October storm (Juan 1985), but not the intensity that would require evacuation. By November, the northern Gulf is fairly safe as water temps cool with the threat shifting to our east. It’s still many, many weeks until I get a call from the “Fat Lady” telling me she’s heading towards the stage to sing “turn out the lights”.
An upper low is moving to our north tonight bringing in some drier air that should limit (below normal)shower coverage (10-20%) for the next 2 days. Later in the week, deeper tropical moisture should return increasing our rain chances to normal (40-50%) or slightly above. Of course we’ll stay hot, but I don’t see those mid to upper 90s like we had back in July. It’s 6-8 weeks before the real cold fronts start coming. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment