Florence Trending Farther to the east?

What is the difference between the Great Galveston hurricane of 1900, the New Orleans Hurricane of 1915,  the Florida Keys Hurricane of 1935 & Hurricane Florence in 2018?   Lack of communications/technology back then resulted in no one knowing the great danger that was coming.   That is not the case with Florence.

 

I’m writing this while awaiting the latest NHC update on Florence.   As you know, I track the center line NHC forecast to see which way the storm is “trending” or which way the danger is increasing or decreasing.   If you watch any local broadcaster NOT use the center line track, it’s because they have bought into the NHC motto of “don’t focus on the centerline”…”watch the cone”.     Since I’ve educated my viewers for 38 years on how to use the center line, I find that reasoning unacceptable since we know there are storm impacts far from the center.  Tracking the centerline tells us where the danger will be increasing.  With Florence, a very symmetrical storm, there will be impacts on both sides of the track.  Since this morning, NHC has slowly shifted the track from south of Wilmington to north of Wilmington.  That lessens the impacts on the South Carolina Coast and increases the impacts for North Carolina  and Virginia.  Just in is their newest advisory (10 PM) & they continue the trend of shifting the track farther to the east, now well east of Wilmington.  What this confirms is what I just said, that the greatest impacts have shifted away from South Carolina (Savannah, Charleston) to North Carolina & Virginia (Norfolk).   Can the track shift back?  Sure, but for a large storm (140 mph Cat. 4) moving at a fast rate (WNW 13 mph), it becomes difficult to change directions UNLESS the forward speed slows down.  That still could happen, but South Carolina is now out of the cone of error while Virginia (including Washington, D.C.) is now in it.  Still way too soon to declare the “all clear” for the south Carolina Coast, but it’s looking better.   Once Florence hits the coast, she’s expected to come to a halt over North Carolina, Virginia & West Virginia.  These are mountainous states that could see deadly flooding IF the projected 20-40” of rain falls.  RIGHT NOW, this heavy rain threat should not move into the Philly, NYC & Boston corridor unless the storm keeps moving.   That could change. 

 

Closer to home, NHC has increased chances for development over the western Gulf at 3-5 days.  Tonight an upper low remains north of the Yucatan with this afternoon’s mid-level swirl now over Cuba.  T-Storms have decreased with that swirl but have increased farther to the south where a weak surface rotation was noticed this afternoon.   Most computer guidance takes this disturbance across the Yucatan tomorrow & Wednesday with some development before making landfall over south Texas or Mexico.   It should not be our problem.  Way out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac has weakened back down to a Tropical Storm.   NHC believes this storm will struggle as it heads westward into the Caribbean.  IF it heads straight to NOLA, it would be NEXT Friday (not this Friday) before we would need to worry.  That’s how far out in the Atlantic he still is.  Plenty of time to watch.  Our focus will be on the potential system in the western Caribbean.   Lots to watch, little to worry for now.  Stay tuned!