Midday Update...

Just got a call to go fishing with Capt. Hylton, so since there is no tropical threat here, off I am.  I’ll next update on Wednesday.  For now, the only difference is location for Florence’s landfall,  The GFS stalls it along the NC Coast while the trend of the European is now back to the south bringing South Carolina back into the danger.  Regardless, impacts will be widespread and the heavy rain threat from a stalling tropical system will become the major concern.   Most people have fled inland and that’s where the flood dangers will occur as extreme rain totals (20-30”+) are likely.  The good news for us is Florence’s track should built in the Atlantic ridge over us blocking any northward movement of the disturbance over the western Caribbean.  NHC still gives it a good (60%) chance to develop Thursday or Friday over the western Gulf.  Isaac still is so far away, but models show it struggling to survive wind shear next week as in moves through the Caribbean.   Off to see if the trout have moved back into the marshes.  Stay tuned!