Thursday, September 13, 2018

Models on Florence Almost Dead On...

Hurricane Florence will be remembered because of her flooding, not because of her winds.   Some gusts to 100 mph are possible on land, but the key feature of this storm is her slow (5 mph) forward motion that will have her rain shield linger for the next 2-3 days.   Rain totals may not reach the extremes of Harvey (60+”) last year, but 40+” is not out of the possibilities.   The difference is Texas was basically flat where NC, SC & GA have hils & mountains.  I’m pretty sure we’ll see videos of cars, trucks & homes swept away by fast moving water rushing down the hilly terrain.  Hopefully the folks living there won’t be stupid and try to drive through moving water?  This is a story that has days to go before ending.


A weak low has formed down over the western Gulf and still could become a TD or named storm before reaching South Texas or the upper Mexican coast by late Friday.  It will not impact us.   Tropical Storm Isaac has shown a burst of T-Storms reform around its center tonight.  NHC says it could weaken to an open wave during the next 2-3 days.  None of the models give it much development.   It appears the tropical Atlantic will settle/quiet down for next week.  That would be nice.


Locally,  as Florence sits along the Carolina coast, her rotation will/should bring drier air wrapping around over most of the Deep South.  I don’t see any signs of a real cold front for the next 10-14 days and it might be early October before we finally get some relief from our heat & humidity.  The focus will remain on Florence for another 2-3 days.  Any travel east of Atlanta should be delayed until Florence leaves.  Stay tuned!

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