Get Ready For Model Mayhem...

Taking a quote from Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics,  "Model Mayhem" is likely for the next several weeks with changes from run to run that are significant.  For instance, this morning's and afternoon's GFS runs are way warmer for Sunday and Monday and into next week than what I have been talking about in previous posts.   What's up? Why?    The brutal cold (25-35 below) is still there in Canada with sub zero now into northern ND/Minn.  The big change is models now do not dig the east coast trough as deep resulting in a storm track that is no longer along the northern Gulf but farther north in Arkansas & Tennessee.  David mentioned tonight that he's always cautious when models flip-flop and so am I.   If tomorrow's runs confirm this warmer shift, then I can buy into it.   But I really haven't change my thinking that some of the brutal cold will slide in for Sunday & Monday giving the North Shore 24-28 with 29-33 south of Lake P.   Numerical guidance is much higher, but we are still 4-5 days out.  If we dodge a freeze with this cold blast, more are coming for later next week that look colder AT THIS TIME.  

In the short term, we finally enjoyed some sunshine today and that resulted in highs 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Clouds are approaching tonight as a weak upper disturbance is passing far to our north.  We could see some brief light showers towards dawn, but they should be gone by 10-11 AM.  Depending on the cloud cover, highs Thursday will be back into the 60s perhaps 65-70 if we see enough pm sun?  Friday looks to start foggy but highs should top 70 if we can get the sun to break through the low clouds.  An Arctic cold front plows through after noon on Saturday with perhaps some strong storms ahead of the front in the morning.  The real chill sets in after dark with highs early on Saturday 70+ plunging into the upper 30s by daybreak Sunday and staying in the 40s with stiff north winds.  Monday morning will be the coldest with a brief moderation for Tuesday & Wednesday.  Whew!   Model Mayhem!  Stay tuned!