Hurricane Predictions Have Arrived...

Every April, various forecasters issues what they believe to be their best guess as to how many named storms we'll have for the coming hurricane season.  For years, the late Dr. Bill Gray was the pioneer on issuing these forecasts.  Now there are 8-10 folks/agencies that put out their "outlooks" all claiming some degree of accuracy.  My sticking point is...until you can pinpoint what areas will be hit and when that'll happen, then these numbers really are meaningless.  For you could have 20 named storms and none affecting NOLA while during an inactive season with few named storms, but one hits us...you see what I mean?

Currently we have a strong Nor'Easter that looks a lot like Hurricane Sandy did.  

Obviously, it doesn't have the structure of powerful Hurricane Dorian last year, yet hurricane force winds are around the center.   The new Colorado State forecast for this storm season has 16 named storms, 8 becoming hurricanes with 4 of those reaching major (Cat. 3+) status.   The reasons for such high numbers are 1) no El Nino expected and 2) very warm sea surface temperatures.  My take?  Let's focus on our current virus storm as we'll have time to deal with Hurricanes down the road.  We have enough stress already!

As the eastern storm pulls away, a weak boundary/front will cruise in from the West. Satellite pics show the tail end of the eastern front has pushed well south of Miami.  As the surface high drifts farther to our east, SE winds will bring back the warmth and humidity and our good feel air will be gone by tomorrow.

You can already see how the western upper tough redevelops and where an Arctic front over the Rockies reminds them Winter is not over.   As they stay cold, we'll warm right back into the mid to upper 80s for next week.

There is some good news.  The forecasted crest on the Mississippi River here has been lowered from 17.5' yesterday to 17.0' today.    Maybe the Corps will delay opening the Spillway which is supposed to happen tomorrow.   Whatever, if they open some bays, it will only be for a short period 10-14 days and that should minimize the impacts on our local lakes.  Remember, last year's second opening lasted well into July.  Now let's go focus back on our war on the virus.  Stay tuned!