Cristobal is Coming...

Thought I give a brief morning update before I go catch some trout this afternoon with Captain Hylton at Shell Beach.

It's pretty obvious that something is going on down over central America with the brightest cloud tops now concentrating over the Yucatan Peninsula.   NHC has upped their probability for development to 80% (translation...it will happen) and they expect a tropical depression will form once the circulation emerges back over the Bay of Campeche late this afternoon or tonight.  However, look at their 5 day projection (hatched area) that keeps it down over the extreme southern Gulf.

They suggest it might rotate back to the southwest into Mexico before finally heading northward late this weekend.  The GFS has a center making landfall near Galveston next Monday!   My thinking, after watching David last night, is a surge of tropical moisture will break away and bring us much higher rain chances for Wed-Friday.   IF a center forms over the Gulf (as a Trop. Storm or hurricane) , we'll need to see if we stay on the "wet side" of it as that could bring us a flooding rain potential for Saturday-Monday.    Lots of questions remain and we'll have days to watch what develops, if anything.   Let the Hurricane Season begin!  Stay tuned!  Next update late Tuesday.