Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Morning Update on Cristobal...

Over night, Tropical Storm Cristobal has become better organized with wind speeds around the center up to 60 mph.  His motion is slowly to the SE with the center of Circulation very near the Mexican coast.  


Computer models continue to show very slow movement for the next 48 hours with a turn to the north on Friday.   NHC's forecast track is not changed from last night as the centerline track brings it into Louisiana west of Morgan City late this weekend.


The cone of error remains wide going from Houston on the west to Mobile on the eastern side.   I like to follow that centerline "trending" as it often give you a hint as to which way the worse impacts are going.  Right now it's way to early to know whether Cristobal will even survive being over land for two days. 

The current surface map has the axis of the Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High stretching across central Louisiana with a flow of tropical moisture coming in from the Gulf.  On the Water Vapor loop, lots of dry air cover the western and northern Gulf.  How much that affects Cristobal is unknown.   We are in a watch and wait mode, but if you haven't stocked up on the basic hurricane essentials, the next 3 days will give you ample opportunity.  Whatever comes out of Cristobal, it should not require any evacuations inside our levee protection system.    I'll post again after 4 pm just so we have no surprises.  Stay tuned!

5 comments:

Unknown said...

Thanks Bob for keeping us informed. I rely on your weather blog every day.
Take care, Lila (from Bush)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Bob. I check this website a few times daily for your insight.

Keeping up With the Joneses said...

Thanks Bob,keep up the good work:)

Jotzilla said...

Thanks Bob! My dad always turned to you for his Hurricane forecasts. Thinking of him today as it would have been his 82nd birthday. As long as you and I are still around, I’ll be looking to you for my tropical info. Thanks again. Andre’

Corey said...

My nickname is little Breck! I've always kept up with your blog and watched your weather reports on Fox 8! Thanks for he updates.