No Change In NHC Thinking...

The center of circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal has moved inland over Mexico as he moves slowly to the SE.  He should remain over land through tomorrow maybe getting back over the Gulf during the day on Friday.  NHC is taking the conservative route and is not changing any of their guidance info.

They have not changed the centerline track keeping it west of Morgan City making landfall before dark on Sunday.  However, I did notice a slight westward shift in the cone of error now taking it west of Houston with the eastern side shifting from Mobile to Pascagoula.  Could this be a trend?  When there is very little new information with each update, I look for "nuggets" that might tell what the NHC's specialists are thinking.  Here are some examples.   NHC's discussion said..." model guidance currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf will NOT be very conducive for strengthening.  Why? 

 

 

One thing right now is very dry air covers the upper levels over the NW Gulf.  In addition, models indicate wind shear might stay moderate plus water temperatures over the northern Gulf are not as warm as over the southern Gulf.  We are not in August or September!   Another NHC comment..." the official intensity forecast...is at the high end of the guidance suite."  Translation...many models are lower in intensity forecasts.   Finally, NHC adds,,," significant UNCERTAINTY as to how strong".   Bottom line for us?   Until we see Cristobal get back out over the Gulf and until we see some kind of motion that is not erratic, we should not expect the NHC forecast track to be perfect.  Our crunch time will come (if it comes) Saturday afternoon into Monday as the main threat from this system will be widespread heavy rainfall.   IF training occurs, there is the real possibility for some street flooding.

 

 

In the short term, we are in a very tropical airmass where daytime heating triggers typical slow moving summer T-Storms.  Lightning is always a danger with these storms.  Where it rains, it's not as hot.  Plan on keeping the rain gear handy as you dodge these scattered showers.  Since I'm not expecting any major changes over night, I probably won't post again until tomorrow PM.  Stay tuned!