Tuesday, June 2, 2020
No Surprises With Cristobal
As I mentioned in my last post, it was very likely we would have the 3rd named storm of the season before I returned from my fishing trip, and that is what happened.
Today's sunrise at Shell beach was stunning, but unfortunately the fishing wasn't. But let's get right to what will be our focus for the next 5-6 days. NHC upgraded TD #3 to Tropical Storm Cristobal before the noon hour today.
His cloud presentation has become better defined with a burst of T-Storms near his center. However, he is very close to the coast of Mexico and models has him moving inland later tonight. As David mentioned this afternoon, Cristobal could just move inland and weaken tomorrow and Thursday and never be a problem for the northern Gulf states. However, that is not what models are saying with the NHC centerline track making a bullseye for Louisiana.
I have mentioned this many times in the past..." at five days out, I WANT to be the bullseye of where the storm is expected to go". Why? Aside from Hurricane Gustav, I have never seen a storm/hurricane go where NHC predicted five days in advance. That is why they have their "cone of error". Most storms go either side of that centerline track and that is VERY important as the right side typically sees the worse effects of the storm. I will be paying close attention to the "trending" of that centerline track IF this system heads northward later this week.
In the short term, with the Bermuda high/Atlantic Ridge firmly in place, SE winds will be deepening the moisture content of our airmass. Listen to the words of the local NWS office. "The extended is going to be highly dependent on a LOW confidence forecast of T. S. Cristobal. More certain...Heavy rain potential her later this week." So for the next 2 days, Cristobal will move very little. If we are to see impacts here, they won't happen until the weekend. We have several days to watch and, if necessary, prepare. Usually June named storms are weak so let's hope that is the case with Cristobal. I'll try to post several times a day if needed. Stay tuned!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
8 comments:
Thanks for these valuable updates! This is where I look for the no-hype "real story" during storm season.
Bob what are your thoughts on the intensity of the storm? To me it looks like a well formed system for this time of year but I know intensity is super unpredictable. However, I hear the temperature in the Northern Gulf is lower than the Bay of Campeche. Any thoughts?
Hey Bob; Heading to Gulf shores this Thursday thru Sunday. We will be in a Motorhome, should we cancel?
Thank you so much foryourupdates. You truly give me comfort when storms start spinning out there.
Those sunrise pictures are simply breathe taking.
Thanks again.... Have a blessed evening!
I have been a Bob watcher since you started many moons ago. The service you are providing with these updates have a calming effect in our lives. In these uncertain times, it is always good to have a rock to refer too with the weather.
Tks Bob
Awesome update. Let's keep our fingers crossed
Born (1984) and raised New Orleans. The Breckster is all I know and trust. I know you say trust Dave, and I do Bob, I swear! I just come here first.
Why ask the apprentice, when Merlin is standing right there?!
Wax on, wax off.
Post a Comment