Bob Breck's Blog

SW Upper Flow Creates Model Woes...

2012-02-02T22:42:00.002-06:00

It seems everyone is married to computer models and what they say. That is OK when you have a progressive pattern that allows fronts to keep on moving. Lately, we've seen a western trough develop resulting in a SW Upper flow over us that the computer models don't handle very well. Embedded in that flow are minor disturbances that the models don't see very well. Since weather is about timing and location, if a model is off only 100 miles and 6-8 hours, you can have a totally different forecast. Tonight's model run keeps most of the rain to our north and west on Friday with more numerous showers developing around noon on Saturday. A front won't get close until Sunday so the next 2 days will be governed by these minor upper disturbances moving thru. Until the upper pattern changes, not likely for another week, we'll be dealing with unsettled weather and tricky forecasts. Hopefully things will change before the big parades arrive in 2 weeks. Right now 10-14 days out looks much colder. Stay tuned!

Weak Front Stalls...Groundhog No Shadow!

2012-02-01T22:44:00.004-06:00

Everybody received much needed rainfall today, but once again the Northshore had the heavier amounts of 1-2". A weak front will stagger down to us during the day on Thursday keeping some chance for rain, but we should see some sunny breaks and far fewer rainy periods. That front lifts northward on Friday taking the rain threat with it and placing us in the warm air sector for most of the weekend. Our next real front will struggle to get thru the SW upper flow with much of the weekend warm, Spring-Like and mostly dry.

Da Groundhog will not see his/her shadow here tomorrow, but does it really matter? Nah!

Wet Wednesday? Somewhere!

2012-01-31T22:43:00.003-06:00

Geez, it seems when we get into a dry spell we often watch rain approach but then split going across the North Shore and South down off the coast. Since September (our last surplus month with T. S. Lee) the rainfall deficit for the past 4 months has reached over 12". At this time of the year, that's not a major problem. However, if this continues into Spring & the growing season, we will see some real issues for lawns and gardens.

There is a weak front coming that some models stall it before it gets here. The VIPIR run tonight still pushes it down to the coast on Thursday briefly turning winds to the NE, but the cooling will be minor. On Friday the front will surge back to our north placing us back into the 70s. A stronger front will approach late Saturday into Sunday bringing better chances for widespread rainfall. Stay tuned!

Quiet Before the Storms?

2012-01-30T21:47:00.003-06:00

We have reached the 2/3 point of Meteorological Winter with just February to go...or maybe not. We have been in a warm pattern since November peaking this January with one of the warmest in history. However, everyone knows how weather works. There is no "normal" but an average of the extremes and it appears we are gearing up to see a return of the east coast troughs that will bring down arctic outbreaks and major snowstorms along the east coast. (Remember the great storm of 1993?) We may see it colder here in March than we are in January if this pattern change occurs. Unfortunately, the chill will arrive just in time for the Mardi Gras parades. Bummer! Get ready for these changes to begin NEXT week. Stay tuned!

In the short term, several weak upper disturbances will give us a chance for some much needed rainfall late Tuesday into Wednesday. Tonight's VIPIR run keeps the heaviest storms south of us off the LA?MS coasts. A brief cool down on Thursday with another warm up for the weekend.

Pattern Change Coming Next Weekend?

2012-01-27T21:53:00.002-06:00

Another cold front is coming for Saturday PM and Sunday, but the coolness will be nothing like next weekend...if you can believe the long range models. This weekend's highs will be in the 60s on Saturday & near 60 on Sunday with night time lows in the 30s & 40s, fairly typical for the last week in January. But the models develop a much deeper east coast trough by Friday of next week and that may latch on to the brutally cold air(-35 to -40) that has been parked up over Alaska. So you cold air & snow freaks, don't give up yet. February & March are likely to develop several major storms(blizzards) and cold air outbreaks that could put us into the deep freeze. Stay tuned.

Wow, you need to read Dr. Master's blog seeking support for his stance that CO2 is the driver of our current warm cycle. Thank goodness the AMS has finally recognized that the "consensus" of scientists pushing for action(Taxes) are mainly computer modelers and that there are many other scientists(Physicists, Chemists, Geologists, Meteorologists) who don't believe CO2 is the MAIN driver. Let the debate & more research continue before we punish the poor-ist of the poor with higher energy costs that drive up EVERYTHING.

Cooler, Not Cold Weekend...

2012-01-26T22:44:00.003-06:00

This morning's storms brought the heaviest rains (MSY 1.32")in over 4 months. Had to go back to Sept. 4th of last year when Kenner got 2.68". It appears the SE U.S. is in for another rough severe weather start much like last year as we still have a weak La Nina underway. This morning 2 small & weak tornadoes were reported near Boothville & just NE of Poplarville. Fortunately for us, tornadoes are not like the ones that pound areas farther north. It appears our next round of severe storms arrive next Thursday. Before then, our weekend looks terrific with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 60s with low humidity.

Believers vs Non-Believers...

2012-01-24T21:05:00.002-06:00

With the American Meteorological Society in town this week for their annual meeting, I felt honored to be asked to sit in on a panel discussion on communicating climate change. There were about 30 folks with diverse backgrounds and we were all allowed to voice our opinions/beliefs regarding what we felt regarding AGW. Several Profs/Phds were vocal about CO2 being the driver of our current warming CYCLE. On MY side were several Profs. who agreed with my opinion that CO2 cannot be the driver, but rather a minor player in warming the Planet. I was surprised at the civility of the panel especially since the AMS organized it. The deck was not stacked against either side. Instead, it was agreed that more discussions in the future should be encouraged regarding AGW. FYI...the day before our panel met, the AMS council voted to delay a vote on passing a statement on Climate Change. However, there is an advocacy group that is trying to attack/denigrate any TV Weathercaster who disagrees with the climate "concensus" group. I'm also honored to be in that group.

Today I sat in on talks regarding the 2011 hurricane & tornado seasons. Lots to report on in future blogs. Back on-air on Thursday which could turn stormy. stay tuned!

Feast or Famine...

2012-01-20T22:23:00.002-06:00

That's the way weather usually works. Rarely do we get "normal" but rather one extreme or the other. Averaged out produces a "normal", but that doesn't happen too often. So it should come as no surprise that we have been riding the roller coaster much of this winter. Sometimes the cold locks in for several weeks, but so far, that has not been the case. Unless the east coast trough returns, our progressive pattern will keep the roller coaster ride going.

In the short term, a weak front will approach on Saturday stalling out just to our north. A few showers might be around, but the main storms will stay well north and east. That front lifts northward on Sunday keeping us in the warm air sector. Highs both days will flirt with record warmth (81 MSY & A.P.). Another cold front should make it thru late Sunday night bringing a few showers but not much cooler air. That front lifts back northward on Tuesday with a stronger system coming late Thursday & Friday with the potential for some severe storms next week. Stay tuned!

Enjoy this January weekend OUTDOORS as Winter stays far to our north.

Cold Gone For Now...

2012-01-19T22:03:00.003-06:00

Sorry I have not blogged, but I was in Indiana on a family emergency. High pressure has shifted to the east and south winds are bringing back warmer air & the Gulf muggies. Over night fog is likely to become a problem in spots thru the weekend as several fronts approach but fail to push thru us. In fact, the upper flow will keep the current bitter cold far to our north with no real cold likely for the next 7-10 days. There are signs that the first 2 weeks of February could bring back the east coast trough and a return to colder conditions down to the Gulf Coast. Still plenty of time to get some of the white stuff before Spring arrives. Be patient you snow freaks!

The American Meteorological Society is coming to town next week and they have invited me to be on a panel discussing Climate Change. I'm sure the deck will be stacked against me. Sunday noon to 4 PM at the Convention Center will be the AMS WeatherFest, a science fair that kicks off their annual meeting. Come by and say hello.

Finally January Weather...

2012-01-12T22:21:00.002-06:00

The first real snowstorm blanketed many cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Green Bay) with 4-8" inches of da white stuff. Add in some cold temps and it's feeling more like January is supposed to feel. Another clipper will bring a quick 1-2" more inches late Friday into Saturday before a slow warming begins. Locally we are cold but not frigid thanks to some clouds that keep streaking over us. N-Shore will be in the 20s for the next couple of mornings while the S-Shore should stop between 28-34. Unlike the North, the chill doesn't last but a few days and we'll top 60 by Sunday & into the 70s Monday & Tuesday before our next front arrives. After a fairly quiet December, it's likely we'll start to see more cold air coming out of Canada resulting in snowstorms for folks who want that stuff. For us? Nah, don't see it happening during the next 10-14 days. Stay warm !

Freezes Coming...

2012-01-11T22:34:00.002-06:00

Funny how weather works. Near 80 last Sunday...likely below freezing Friday morning. This up and down roller coaster ride doesn't allow our bodies to acclimate so the cold here feels colder than the cold say in Buffalo. They get cold and stay cold from November thru April. Kinda like us in the summer when we get hot and stay hot. This next front will arrive near daybreak and the winds will roar from the north 20-30+ by midday. Warmest will be before noon with temps into the 40s by dark. Both Friday and Saturday mornings will see low to mid 20s N-Shore, upper 20s-low 30s S-Shore. We won't stay cold very long as Sunday should be 60+ and 70+ by Tuesday. Rain chances for the next 5-7 days appear to be slim to none.

The weather in San Francisco should be no problem for our Saints. Highs 58-63, lots of sun with light to moderate winds under 15. Saints 26 Niners 17 Who-Dat !

Brief Shot of Winter Coming...

2012-01-10T22:49:00.002-06:00

The 1st ten days of January 2012 have seen 7 days with highs 70+. That's about to change as a stronger cold front arrives early on Thursday bringing freezing temperatures to the N-Shore Fri-Sunday mornings with near freezing temps on the S-Shore. Right now is looks no worse that the freeze of a week ago as the core of the cold will quickly shift to our north and east. Since the upper flow pattern remains progressive (unlike the blocking pattern of east coast trough from 2011), our bouts with the cold air will not linger. 70+ warmth should return by next Tuesday.

Looking down the road, there are signs that late January into February could turn much colder over the Great Lakes & Northeast. How far south that cold gets remains to be seen. Stay tuned!

Record Warmth...Little Snow...Must be AGW

2012-01-05T22:22:00.002-06:00

Geez, I remember the last 2 winters over the Great Lakes & NE being brutal with snow & cold. Of course we were told it was global warming that is causing more extreme weather events. Never mind that one could easily explain that a blocking upper pattern was causing those weather events. Fast forward to this year and we find no blocking pattern, but instead a progressive series of troughs moving across the country that allow little cold air to dive south out of Canada resulting in unusually warm temperatures over the lower 48 . You guessed it, must be global warming. If we're too cold or too hot, too wet or too dry...must be global warming. Whatever happened to cycles & patterns in weather? Don't they teach that anymore?

We are in a pattern that will keep fog in the forecast for the next several nights. I guess that's due to global warming?

Enjoy This Week...Winter Coming Back

2012-01-04T22:24:00.002-06:00

After a freezing start for most of us, highs rebounded into the 60s as the cold high shifted to our east allowing southerly winds to bring back the Gulf warmth. This current warming will last into next week as only several minor disturbances provide us with brief rain chances on Saturday. Next week looks to get more active with a strong upper disturbance triggering some storms mainly on Tuesday into Wednesday before another arctic blast arrives for Wed-Fri. Temperatures over Alaska will approach -40 and if the east coast trough returns and digs southward to the Gulf, get the firewood ready! Stayed tuned!

Yea Michigan beat Virgina Tech, but why do I feel like a loser? A friend told me..."Better to be lucky than good" ! Just hope LSU gets better play from their QB against 'Bama.

A Taste of Winter...

2012-01-02T17:52:00.002-06:00

As I prepare to enjoy the Sugar Bowl tomorrow watching Michigan defeat VT, I'm watching a brief taste of Winter invade the Gulf South. This could be our only threat for freezing weather as models warm us up later this week and keep the core of the cold well to our north the next 10-14 days. The coldest night will be Tomorrow night(Wed. AM) when the winds will be lighter and there will be little warming from Lake P. Bundle up!

Stormy Thursday...

2011-12-21T22:44:00.002-06:00

Last night's storms fizzled as they reached our part of the state, but another upper disturbance will try again to give us some much needed rainfall on Thursday. If this one fails, we look to stay dry thru the holiday weekend. Cool, not cold, air will filter in behind a cold front sweeping away all the moisture and putting an end to our daily fog problems. At least it'll feel more like Christmas this weekend with highs 55-60 and nights in the 40s. Our next rain shot arrives late Monday into Tuesday, but I see no real cold coming for the next 7-10 days.

As many of you know, I take vacation time over Christmas & New Years. I'll be back on FOX 8 Jan. 4th after Michigan wins the Sugar Bowl ! I'll be update my blog during that time so stay tuned!

Stormy Weather...

2011-12-20T22:24:00.002-06:00

Until we break out of this SW upper flow expect several disturbances moving up an old frontal boundary to produce 2-3 opportunities for stormy weather. No snow here, but I do expect these systems to keeping tapping colder air farther to our north and we'll see some significant snow before and on Christmas for the hearty souls up north. Another by-product of this pattern is lots of foggy nights as cold fronts can't push deep down into the Gulf. So put the coats away until the weekend and have the rain gear handy thru Friday.

Not Feeling Like Christmas...

2011-12-19T21:59:00.002-06:00

Trees have been put up, Lites are glowing, decorations make it look a lot like Christmas but the weather map over the SE says otherwise. Why? Because the trough remains over the west bringing them the cold air and snow with the SE staying mainly mild and dry. There appears to be a small pattern shift coming over the weekend that could bring some colder air for Christmas Day, but the moisture will be long gone by then so Santa will have to ride South without any snow. If you recall, NOAA, Joe Bastardi and all the folks who try to predict weather months in advance, indicated December would be the cold & snowy month over the east with Jan-Feb turning milder. So far that has not happened. In fact, just the opposite could happen with January or February being the really cold months. One thing is certain...the blocking pattern we saw the past several winters is not there so far this winter.

Cold Building Up North...

2011-12-14T22:29:00.002-06:00

Back in November Alaska saw brutally cold temps (35-40 below zero) but since then they and much of Canada has been milder. There are signs tonight that the cold may be building again as many stations in northern Canada will be 20-30 below by tomorrow morning. Looking at computer models out thru 10 days shows the western trough remaining in place with some hints of it shifting back over the eastern states just in time for Christmas week. It doesn't look deep enough to bring the pipe busting cold down to us(and no snow!), but many folks up north could see some significant snow Dec. 23-30. With such a mild trend locally in December, my gut tells me to be ready for a much colder January. Stay tuned.

In the short term, a weak front will struggle thru us by Friday PM bringing a few showers followed by noticeably cooler (60-65) temps for Saturday & Sunday. If the front pushes far enough offshore, we should see an end to our foggy mornings for a couple of days.

Different December this Year...

2011-12-13T21:51:00.002-06:00

Last December folks up north were getting buried by snowstorm after snowstorm along with some bitter cold temperatures. For the 1st 2 weeks of December 2011, Chicago has received only 1/2 inch of snow, far behind 2010. What is going on? Most of the Gurus predicted another harsh winter, but that is not happening so far. Partly because we have not seen the blocking pattern that set up in 2010 that drove the cold air southward into the lower 48. For the next 7-10 days the western trough will linger with a weak ridge over the SE keeping us mild. Will Santa have to change to short sleeves when he arrives in the South? Stay tuned!

Big Warm Up Coming...

2011-12-12T22:04:00.002-06:00

After 7 straight days below normal/average, we are about to enter a prolonged (7-10 days) stretch of above normal weather with highs 70+ for most of that period. Alas, at this time of the year, water temps have cooled into the 50s and, when south winds bring the warmer air back, it also includes humidity. As the warmer air moves over the cooler waters, dense fog is often the result. Expect foggy mornings for the rest of this week. A weak front will get close by early Saturday, but it will stall and retreat back to the north keeping us in the warm air sector. The next real cold front is not likely until well into NEXT week. You cold air lovers will need to drive pretty far to the north to get your "fix". As I golf later this week, I'll realize why I live down South!

Cold will Linger Into Weekend...

2011-12-07T22:07:00.002-06:00

It's not record cold, but it certainly requires sweaters/jackets/coats or a combination of those. In fact, if you are dressed for it, the chill feels pretty good since the air has become much drier this evening. We'll see a slow warming the next 2 days before another cold front arrives before Dawn on Saturday. That will keep Sat-Sunday highs in the 50s. A real warm up begins Monday (60s) that should see us near or above 70 by Tuesday. We may need to worry about morning fog returning with the warmer air?

Remember one of the claims of the AGW Alarmists was rising sea levels will flood many low lying areas. A new report out this week shows sea levels have DROPPED during the past 2 years! Egad, what could be happening? Gotta blame it on something, right? Would you believe they claim the recent La Nina is the culprit. Go figure.

Winter Outlook...

2011-12-06T22:04:00.002-06:00

We'll be cold this week, but reading Joe Bastardi's winter outlook indicates December may be our coldest month with both January & February above normal. Translation...If you snow "freaks"(lovers) want to see any of the white stuff here, it'll have to happen this month. Great news for Carnival, golfers and anyone who works outdoors.

Our local focus for the next 3-4 nights will be near freezing or below temps on both sides of the lake. It should be a Plant & Pet threat and not a problem for pipes. We'll update tomorrow.

Back to Reality...

2011-12-05T22:20:00.002-06:00

We are in Meteorological Winter so temps shouldn't be flirting with 80 degrees as we have been for the past 3 days. Our "normal/Average" highs should be in the upper 60s and for the rest of this week, highs won't get out of the 50s. We are nearing the time of the year when we start thinking about the Pipe Rule( temps 28 or below for 4 hours or more) and hard freezes. The coldest air of the season has plunged out of Canada and dropped Denver to below zero. Luckily for us, the upper trough over the west is not expected to dip over the Gulf South so the core of this cold will stay to our north. The N-Shore will see freezing temps again later this week while the S-Shore will fall into the 30s. Sweaters and jackets/coats will be required for the next 5-6 days. By Sunday or Monday temps will rebound above 60. Yippee!

Let the Games Begin...

2011-11-30T22:23:00.002-06:00

Will it freeze? Will we see snow? How about an Ice Storm? The good news is we don't have to evacuate for any of those! Hurricane Season 2011 now is officially gone! We can focus on winter type weather that is often an inconvenience, but rarely destructive like a Hurricane. In a La Nina Winter, the South is "usually mild and dry". That is not always the case. Looking out for the next 7-10 days, models are conflicting each other and flip flopping each day. Pretty much all say cold air will invade the lower 48, but how far south will it come? After tomorrow morning's freezing temps, I don't see that returning any time soon. A real warm up will have us in the 70s for Saturday & Sunday but back into the 50s behind the front by Tuesday & Wednesday. The core of the cold will stay to our north...at least for next week.

Fall Ends on a Chilly Note...

2011-11-29T22:24:00.002-06:00

All right, Wednesday ends the 2011 Hurricane Season. More importantly, it's the last day of Fall as "meteorological" Winter begins on Thursday. The 3 coldest months, historically are Dec-Jan-Feb. The Astronomical calendar has Winter beginning on Dec. 21. We have been enjoying some delightful weather IF you're dressed for it. Nights are chilly but days are comfy cool with that good feel air around. The muggies return over the weekend along with warmer temps. Another front arrives on Monday and it appears it will stall to our south keeping us cloudy, cool and wet for several days. Nah, no snow is expected as it won't be cold enough. Sorry!

Chilly Week...Colder Next Week?

2011-11-28T22:23:00.002-06:00

After a brief weekend warm up, It appears December will get off to a chilly start for the next 2 weeks. This week we'll be flirting with freezing temps for the next several mornings. The brief warm up starts Friday and we could be 70+ for Sat-Sunday before our next front arrives for Monday. Look for some T-Storms ahead of this front that could be heavy or severe. Depending on how deep the upper trough is with this front, we could see the air behind it colder that what we have for this week.

Snow is falling over Memphis & much of western TN tonight. Just have that feeling we could see some of the white stuff coming here during December. Stay tuned!

Tuesday officially ends the 2011 Hurricane season.

Severe Risk...Then much colder !!!

2011-11-26T15:18:00.003-06:00

SPC has placed all of SE LA & coastal MS in a "slight risk" area for severe storms later tonight. Once again those storms won't arrive until most of us are going to bed. Hope you have your weather radios on? Temps will be falling during the day on Sunday with the high happening probably at midnight. Models have reverted back to the earlier week solutions that bring the hint of some flakes down into LA & MS for late Sunday into Monday AM.(right on AlbanySnowmaker!) Highs on Monday could stay in the 40s if we don't see much sun! After being near 80 this afternoon, next week looks much cooler so get those sweaters and coats ready!

Rock & Roll Roller Coaster Ride Continues...

2011-11-24T21:47:00.002-06:00

From the 80s to the 50s? How about from the 70s to the 30s? Yep, it appears the pattern change I talked about in previous blogs is about ready to kick in with several east coast troughs bringing down colder and colder air from Canada. This weekend we'll see us warm up to near 80 on Saturday ahead of the next cold front cooling into the 50s for highs behind it on Sunday & Monday. We then warm up again to 70+ by Wednesday/Thursday of next week before an even stronger cold front comes crashing down upon us. This pattern is similar to 2008 ( a La Nina year) when on Dec. 11th we had a "snowstorm" on the South Shore that covered the ground for several hours. It appears the first 2 weeks in December will be very cold before the second half od the month turns milder. Could you snow freaks be in luck? Stay tuned!

Oh, by the way, this is the last weekend of the 2011 Hurricane Season. Party anyone?

Lovely Thanksgiving...Stormy Saturday?

2011-11-23T21:47:00.002-06:00

This last front didn't have much cool air behind it but it will produce a terrific Thanksgiving day across all of the Gulf South. A major pattern change is shaping up for the second half of the weekend that may last into most of next week. That pattern shift will bring back the east coast trough that allows cold air from Canada to flow down to us. We will see a brief warm up ahead of Saturday's front but you'll be bringing out the heavy weather gear as highs Sunday & Monday will struggle to get out of the 60s. Most of next week will see highs staying in the 60s, quite a change from the 80+ lately.

Those of you lucky enough to enjoy the family tomorrow, have a Happy Thanksgiving! As one gets older, families tend to drift apart due to job shifts that often times take children to distant parts of our country. Truly appreciate tomorrow with your kids as they all grow up too fast. Down the road you'll be like me and have only memories of family time during the holidays. Enjoy!

Cooler,then Warmer, then COLDER !

2011-11-22T22:20:00.002-06:00

Some much needed rainfall fell over most of SE LA/MS as a cold front moves through the deep South. this is not a strong front and the air behind it is cooler but not cold. The next 2-3 days will have the feel good air around with a warming trend on Friday. Saturday will be back near 80 ahead of a much stronger cold front that could produce a severe weather outbreak Saturday night into early Sunday. Behind this front will be much colder air and tonight's model run keeps a cut off upper low over us for Monday and Tuesday. That will keep clouds around and, if we were into December, the possibility of some lingering mixed precipitation Sunday night into Monday. As I said last night, seems strange but in this era of more weather extremes, could we have a repeat of Dec. 11, 2008? Stay tuned!

Real Cold Air Coming !!!

2011-11-21T22:22:00.002-06:00

All right you cold air freaks. You're gonna get your wish. Our lovely 80 degree warmth in late November (must be global warming?) will finally leave us as several cold fronts are on the way. The first arrives late Tuesday bringing the possibility of some strong storms. Cooler, not cold, air will follow for Wed. PM & Thanksgiving before a quick warm up gets us back to near 80 for Friday & Saturday. But then the bottom falls out courtesy of a very deep east coast trough that will drive the coldest air since last February down to the Gulf south. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get into the 50s with lows Monday AM in the 20s on the N-Shore and in the 30s on the S-shore. It's a little too early to start thinking da white stuff, but in this era of new weather extremes, who knows! Stay tuned!

More Weather Extremes...

2011-11-18T22:28:00.002-06:00

In a classic case of you can't be wrong, the most recent report out by the IPCC says there will be more weather extremes in a warmer climate. That means record heat in Texas...must be caused by Global Warming. Record cold in Alaska (-41 yesterday in Fairbanks)...must be caused by Global Warming. Early season snow storm in the Northeast...must be Global Warming. Severe drought over Texas...must be Global Warming. Isn't it just common sense that there are more weather extremes in a warmer climate CYCLE? I don't disagree. What I disagree with is their predictions that the Globe will continue warming forever when the past history of the Planet says otherwise.

Oh I forgot to mention more near record warmth coming this weekend followed by a pattern shift that will make us much colder by early December. Some may says it's Global Warming. I say it's called Fall and the changing of the seasons. Enjoy your warm weekend before we see snow flying here in December. Damn Global Warming!

Roller Coaster Ride to Continue...

2011-11-17T21:54:00.002-06:00

Heard an anchor on another channel today ask the meteorologist ..."is this up and down weather normal"? The simple answer is absolutely! Or yes! It's called changing seasons from Summer to Winter or Fall. Highs often can be in the 80s for several days and then plunge into the 30s at night for a couple of nights before jumping back to 80+ for a few more days. That's exactly what's happening this November. We don't generally get into the "cold mode" until Meteorological Winter starts December 1st. Computer models are hinting that a pattern shift to that "cold mode" is coming towards the end of this month. Stay tuned!

NHC is watching an area way out in the Atlantic that could develop into another name storm. They give it a low chance of doing so, but the next name would be Tammy.

Brief Cool Down, Weekend Warm Up.

2011-11-16T22:02:00.002-06:00

This morning's storms brought some damaging winds along with the heaviest rains since Trop. Storm Lee back in earlier September. Not everyone received the heavy downpours, especially the Westbank where rain totals were just enough to wet the ground. Thursday & Friday will be noticeably cooler and you'll need sweaters and jackets. If you're dress for it, the chill will feel great. It won't last very long as 70s return for Saturday and 80 or above Sunday-Tuesday. Our next front will arrive next Wednesday with some showers turning it cooler for Thanksgiving. No "real" cold is expected until we get into December.

The coldest air of the season has arrived over Alaska where over night lows in the interior will be 35-40 BELOW zero! Burrr. Some of that chill could reach us in the 10-14 day time frame.

Welcomed Rain Coming?

2011-11-14T22:17:00.002-06:00

We are nearing 2 months since widespread significant rain fell over SE LA/MS. An upper disturbance may bring our best chances for rain in a long time Late Tuesday into early on Wednesday before a cold front dries us out and cools us down for Thursday & Friday. This front has Pacific origins so the cool down will not be as drastic as last week's front. Another quick warm up over the weekend will have us back to 80+ by Sunday. Looking down the road, we'll stay warm thru Thanksgiving, but there is very cold air ( 10-20 below zero) building over Alaska & Western Canada that should plunge into the lower 48 the last week in November making December very winter-like maybe as far south as us? Remember the snow of 2008 was on Dec. 11th. Hummm...stay tuned!

What goes around...

2011-11-11T21:56:00.003-06:00

With Penn State in the news firing their President Graham Spanier, thought you'd like to know this is the same President who dismissed charges against their scientist(Michael Mann) involved in the Climate-gate e-mails... "Penn State inquiry exonerating Michael Mann - the paleoclimatologist who came up with “the hockey stick” -would be difficult to parody. Three of four allegations are dismissed out of hand at the outset: the inquiry announces that, for “lack of credible evidence”, it will not even investigate them.... Yep, this guy doesn't want to investigate anything that might tarnish the University. He got what he deserved...fired!

Obviously the crimes of the coach were far worse than covering up the e-mails, but it shows there was a disturbing pattern at Penn State.

Another great weekend is coming up. After a chilly start on Saturday, highs will warm back to 70+ with plenty of sunshine. Temps will continue to warm into next week when a weak front will try to push through. No real cold is coming back for the next 7-10 days.

LSU 41 WKY 10 Saints 34 Atlanta 24 Who Dat !

Cold Night...Gotta be Global Warming!

2011-11-10T22:23:00.002-06:00

Geez, it seems every "extreme" weather event causes someone to blame it on Global Warming. The latest claim...a huge storm in the Gulf of Alaska battered Nome with its worse storm since 1974. You guessed it...gotta be Global Warming. The east coast early snow storm...gotta be global warming. Our near freezing weather tonight...gotta be Global Warming. What the heck...an underwater Volcano belching up a new island out in the Atlantic...gotta be Global Warming. Could it be that our current warming CYCLE, which is winding down, is the reason for more "extremes". Nah, gotta believe those infallible computer models that predict the warming will continue for the rest of time. I'd let this topic rest except there are daily reports of doom and gloom that drive me crazy. The World will go on & life will continue and Earth's Climate will continuing changing. Amen.

A great stretch of weather is coming after several chilly mornings. Enjoy.

Not Done With Rain?

2011-11-09T21:59:00.002-06:00

Once again last night's promising line of showers fizzled as it reached Metro New Orleans giving the South Shore less than a quarter of an inch. Another upper disturbance is bringing more rain our way, but will it hold up? We may see a few showers around for morning drive, but we are not expecting much as this disturbance is moving very quickly. We should see clearing skies during the afternoon with all day sunshine on Friday. Temperatures will stay in the 60s Thursday & Friday so it's back to sweaters and jackets. A warm up begins on Saturday and we'll flirt with 80 by Sunday. Most of next week will stay warm with only a week front Wednesday or Thursday.

Trop. Storm Sean could briefly become a hurricane on Thursday before it gets picked up by a cold front and heads out to sea.

Bring on Da Rain!

2011-11-08T21:57:00.002-06:00

Our best rain chance in over 6 weeks will arrive before daybreak as a strong cold front will sweep away our warm weather and bring us back to that good Fall Feeling. Highs will be in the 70s early on Wednesday falling into the 60s during the afternoon. Thursday & Friday highs will stay in the 60s with nights in the 30s on the North Shore and 40s on the South Shore. A rapid warm up begins Saturday and we'll be back to 80+ by Monday.

Yet another alarmists Global Warming story in today's Times-Picayune. This time it's Entergy's CEO bashing man for causing the destruction of the Planet. He really believes man can stop the Earth's climate from changing. How? Why CAP and Trade...tax the carbon users (us) of course. He obviously believes government knows how to spend that extra money. As we head into our next cooling CYCLE, I wonder what he'll want us to do to stop that?

Why not Sean?

2011-11-07T21:45:00.002-06:00

Satellite pics continue to show an area of low pressure east of Florida getting better organized. NHC is giving it a 70% chance of becoming a "sub-tropical" storm tomorrow. Since it has been drifting over 80+ degree water temps, it sure looks to be gaining a tropical appearance tonight. NHC quickly named several minor swirls earlier in this hurricane season and one wonders why they are taking their time with this. I guess since computer models forecast it to remain east of the U.S., NHC is not going to send out a recon to see if it really is tropical or not. Whatever, give it a look and tell me what you think. Sure looks like T.S. Sean to me.

In the short term, Tuesday will again be warm and spring-like before a strong cold front arrives Wednesday morning. Hopefully this front will bring us some much needed rainfall. It has brought some severe storms to Oklahoma today but SPC does not expect any severe storms in our part of Louisiana or Mississippi. Behind the front it's much colder air bringing back sweaters and jackets.

Sean Off East Coast?

2011-11-04T21:57:00.002-05:00

An area of low pressure is moving off the N. Carolina coast tonight heading over the Gulf Stream tomorrow. Computer models show this low will come to a halt for several days which might give it a chance to take on tropical characteristics. No worry for us since it's east of Florida & the Gulf's waters are now too cold. What it will do is slow the progression of fronts across the nation so that we should enjoy several days of great weather. Nights will be comfy cool with days pleasantly mild to warm. But lets talk about what is truly important.

Final scores...LSU 31 Alabama 24 Saints 35 Tampa 24

Who Dat !

Media Bias? Yup!

2011-11-03T22:08:00.002-05:00

Last week in the Times Picayune, Eugene Robinson had an op-ed regarding a Physicist named Richard Muller who had changed from a AGW "skeptic" to a believer in a Wall Street Journal article. That was followed by yet another article 2 days later. What was never printed was that one of Muller's co-authors, Dr. Judith Curry totally disagrees with him. Curry said..."Muller's claim that he has proven global warming skeptics wrong was a HUGE mistake with NO scientific basis". Curry also said..." I am baffled as to what Muller's trying to do. I think they have made errors and I distance myself from what they did." Climategate 2? Does the media favor one side? Absolutely. Another climate researcher slams Muller..."I am fed up with his tricks & his whoring for the media". You'll never see that in the media, unless you do some digging and that's just not right. Or have you heard about the COOLING taking place according to climate researcher Dr. Roy Spencer, UAH? Of course not. All we keep hearing is more weather extremes caused by CO2 and to save the World we must change (lower the standard of living) the way people live. The CO2 Theory is much like religion. It can't be proved and is based on faith. I for one believe our current warming CYCLE peaked in 1998 and, based on data, we have entered a cooling cycle that may continue for the next 20-30 years. Too many people, with far more education that I, agree with that scenario. Yet the blitz of Global Warming articles will continue. To be continued...

Brief Cooldown Coming...Rapid Warm Up

2011-11-02T21:46:00.002-05:00

At this time of the year many of you look forward to the cooler temperatures after enduring 5+ months of brutal summer heat. October into mid to late November often is the best weather here as the cold fronts have some bark but not much bite. That'll come in a few weeks as the longer Canadian nights are beginning to show up as single digit temperatures are becoming more common. So get the coats ready, stockpile the firewood as Old Man Winter will be heading our way later this month. Hopefully we'll see a change in our prolonged dry pattern. FOX 8 has not had a significant(greater than .50") rainfall in 6 weeks and the last time we had over an inch was back on September 4th...2 months ago!

In the short term, a cold front will sweep thru during the morning hours on Thursday bringing us a slight chance for a few showers. Rainfall totals will likely be about .10" with a few spots getting .25+. Hardly enough to soak your lawns and gardens. Friday will be cooler (65-70) with Saturday and Sunday back into the 70s and Monday & Tuesday 80+. Our next front on Wednesday could be stronger bringing better rain chances next week.

Follow the Money...

2011-11-01T21:54:00.002-05:00

The past several days have seen several stories regarding AGW and in today's Times-Picayune an article stated that the European Union was going to start taxing airplanes beginning Jan. 1st. I've always said this debate was about money and not about saving the Planet. In this story, one wonders what will happen to the taxes? Where do they go? and who gets what? Do you trust government to handle new money wisely? And what happens when the next cooling cycle sets in? At a time when man could reduce/control World hunger, could control/reduce World over population, could control/reduce crime etc...no, the AGW alarmists want us to believe we can control the climate of our Planet and want us to spend billions(supporting their research) doing so. There is an agenda out there that says we must reduce our standard of living in order to save Mother Earth. I say lets control/reduce our personal pollution thru conservation and common sense. We don't need to give up many of the conveniences that make living easier, just reign in the excesses. What do you think?

Hello November With a Warm Start...

2011-10-31T22:21:00.002-05:00

After 2 days where temperatures failed to get out of the 60s, a warming trend got us back above 70 today and we'll flirt with 80 ahead of our next Front that arrives midday on Thursday. This is not a strong front but it will bring us a chance for a few, much needed showers Thursday afternoon followed by slightly cooler air for Friday. Another warm up begins on Saturday bringing back 80s by Sunday. With the upper air forecast calling for a deep trough over the west and a ridge over the SE, expect next week to be summer-like. With several models hinting for tropical development east of Florida, could it be that Hurricane Season 2011 isn't over yet? Well history tells us that there has never been a landfalling hurricane hit LA or MS in November. Hurricane Kate(Cat. 3) came close in 1985 but she turned and slammed into the FL Panhandle. With the Gulf waters much cooler and the Fat Lady long gone, I'm siding with history. Stayed tuned!

In the short term, our wonderful weather will continue with a warming trend. You cold weather lovers will have to head north as I see no real cold coming back for the next two weeks.

Let 'Em Shovel As October Stays Great!

2011-10-30T21:43:00.002-05:00

Yea, watching the pictures from the Northeast makes me feel sorry for them, but for a lot of folks, they say they really like it? Huh? In October? Not for me. We have been enjoying a delightful October that started warm but is finishing comfy cool. With one day left, this will end up the 5th driest October since record keeping began back in 1946. This coming week will see a gradual warming trend that could see highs approach 80 by Thursday and Friday. All in all, we have been experiencing a fine stretch of Fall weather. November typically sees stronger cold fronts coming often igniting our secondary severe weather season. That won't happen this week as no new fronts are in sight.

The tropics are dead...but you already knew that.

Fall Feeling Coming Back for Weekend.

2011-10-27T23:11:00.002-05:00

After 5 straight days with highs above 80, a strong cold front will bring back much cooler air for the next 2-3 days. Highs Friday and Saturday will struggle to break 70 with night time lows in the 30s-40s N-Shore and 40s-50s S-Shore. Get your sweaters and jackets ready! Any rain will come behind the front on Friday with dry air filtering in for the rest of the weekend. Halloween will be a little warmer, but no rain is expected.

Rina fell apart earlier today before making a small comeback this evening. As wind shear increases, she is expected to weaken further and turn back southward into the NW Caribbean.

The big weather story coming this weekend will be a major Nor'easter that could cause significant damage due to heavy,wet snow. Stay tuned!

Rina Reeling? Or Not?

2011-10-26T22:20:00.002-05:00

Hurricane intensity forecasting is driving NHC nuts! We have seen how their track forecasting has been getting better and better, however, intensity forecasting remains a crap shoot. Take Rina for example. They rightfully called for her to become a Cat. 3 storm and she did...however, they expected Rina would hit the Yucatan as a Cat. 2 or 3. Today she weakened to a Cat. 1 despite still being over rather water waters. NHC had to issue a special statement this afternoon as they were surprised by the rapid decrease in intensity. Geez, I'm just glad I don't work there as the forecasters are on the hot seat to improve something I'm not sure can be improved very much.

In the short term, Thursday will be our last warm day for awhile. A cold front will sweep thru bringing back that Fall Feeling for Friday into next week. You'll need sweaters and jackets again with some 30s likely across the North Shore by Sunday & Monday mornings. Nothing like the 8-20" of the white stuff that blanketed the Colorado front range only 2 days after highs were 80+ !

Rina Getting Stronger...

2011-10-24T22:09:00.002-05:00

The seasons 6th hurricane developed quickly this morning and NHC believes it will become a major Hurricane(Cat. 3) by Wednesday. If this were August or September we would need to monitor this closely. However, 1) very dry air is over most of the Gulf, 2) strong west winds over the Gulf will steer this to FL IF it gets into the southern Gulf and 3) water temps. are 8-10 degrees cooler than 4 weeks ago. Joe Bastardi still believes it could hammer South FL, but I remember Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was around the same location at about this same time. Mitch was a slow mover and a Cat. 5. He turned to the south and clobbered Honduras. Bottom line...Rina cannot be our problem with another front coming, but it still could impact many land areas around the Caribbean and South Florida. Stay tuned as Sean could be right behind Rina later this week.

In the short term, highs have returned to the 80s for the next 3 days. The next cold front arrives after dark on Thursday with a few showers. Friday will be noticeably cooler but the weekend looks sunny and very nice.

Caribbean Staying Stormy...

2011-10-23T21:19:00.002-05:00

As we enter the last week in October and know that no hurricane has crossed the LA. coast in November, it doesn't mean the season is over but just that the focus is now away from us. It appears a cluster of storms over the NW Caribbean is becoming better organized and should become Rina on Monday. With dry air and strong west winds over the Gulf, Rina is predicted to drift slowly to the WNW moving into Central America or the Yucatan later this week. Models are developing another low over the Central Caribbean in the next 7-10 days so we still could run out of storm names before the 2011 season is put to bed.

Locally, a weak upper disturbance is moving across us tonight with a slight chance for a stray shower. Another cold front should arrive on Thursday bringing more cold air and prospects for another pleasant & dry weekend.

Why We Live South...

2011-10-19T22:13:00.002-05:00

Watching the World Series tonight, watching the reporters from Chicago's lake Front this afternoon reminds me why I don't live up north anymore. It's only October yet there it was blowing up a gale with heavy rains and chilly temps that would make anyone hunger for a cup of hot soup. The baseball players wearing their stocking caps and hoods, fans bundled up against the damp cold, makes our current cold spell look balmy. Yea I know why I love living here. We endure the heat of a long Summer to enjoy both Spring & Fall. Winter here? I still can golf in Dec., Jan. & Feb. Try that up in Green Bay or Buffalo!

The models keep trying to form one last storm over the western Caribbean next week. Another front is coming for us so we remain protected until next June. Enjoy this current stretch of cool, dry weather that will slowly warm thru the weekend. No rain until next Wed. PM.

It's More Than Water Temps.

2011-10-18T22:08:00.002-05:00

Several weeks ago I said on this blog that the Fat Lady was singing the end to our Hurricane Season. The reason for my saying that with confidence was I felt the westerlies had returned creating too much wind shear for any tropical system to come our way. That was confirmed yesterday as a weak sfc. low formed off the Yucatan over the still very warm waters of the southern Gulf. If it were still August or September, this system probably would have developed. It had little chance now since the shear also brought down dry air over most of the Gulf. I still see TWC and others showing the "warm water temperatures" over the tropics. My opinion...shear is king when it comes to something developing or not. Water temps are a secondary player. With more cold fronts coming, most of the Gulf is dead for tropical development.

In the short term, you'll need a sweater, a jacket or even maybe a coat Wednesday morning as strong north winds will make the 45-50 degree temps seem even colder. Look for even colder night time temps. on Thursday & Friday mornings. If you missed out on the brief showers today, I see no rain in the forecast until late next Wednesday when another strong cold front will approach.

Rina in Gulf Tuesday?

2011-10-17T21:51:00.002-05:00

NHC has lowered their probability that an area of low pressure in the SE Gulf will develop into a TS. Daylight(Visible) satellite loops clearly showed a low level circulation just off the Yucatan, but all of the T-Storms were well to the east. Tonight's satellite and radar loops appear to indicate a new center forming north of the western tip of Cuba much closer to where T-Storms are firing. My friend Joe Bastardi is warning that this could be like the last storm that NHC didn't name that clobbered the east coast of FL except this time it'll be FL's west coast that could get hammered tomorrow. Fortunately for us, a strong cold front arrives Tuesday PM that will protect us from any impacts from this Gulf system. Will we see Rina tomorrow? Stay tuned!

In the short term, Tuesday will stay warm thru mid PM(80s) until the front arrives dramatically increasing winds from the NNW driving the coldest air since last April into SE LA/MS. Nights will be in the 30s N-Shore & 40s S-Shore with Daytime highs in the 60s Wed-Thursday. Get ready for some REAL Fall Feeling weather!

Rina In Gulf Tuesday?

2011-10-16T20:46:00.002-05:00

It appears an area of low pressure over the Yucatan is trying to become better organized. As I mentioned yesterday, we are protected by another, stronger cold front that will arrive late Tuesday bringing the coldest air in over 6 months down to the Gulf South. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 60s with strong north winds making it feel even colder. Lows Thursday morning could dip into the 30s N-Shore and 40s S-Shore. Sweaters & jackets will be required. If Rina is to form, it will be over the extreme southern Gulf and she would be quickly steered into south FL and then up the east coast. This could be the 1st real snowstorm for parts of the Northeast on what is shaping up to be another brutal Winter for them. Stay tuned!

In the short term, we'll stay Summer-like into Tuesday before the cold arrives in earnest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Monday's highs will approach 90, Tuesday low 80s, Wednesday in the 60s, Thursday & Friday 70-75. Another beautiful Fall weekend is shaping up with highs in the 70s and no rain.

We Are Protected. More Fronts Coming...

2011-10-15T20:51:00.002-05:00

NHC is saying that there is a low (10%) probability of something forming down over the southern Gulf or NW Caribbean. Don't worry about it since we are beyond the time for storms coming to LA/MS. The westerlies are very strong over the Gulf, plus more deep east coast troughs are coming that will drive colder air down over the Gulf. We are protected. Our season is over.

In the short term, summer-like warmth will prevail for the next 2-3 days before REAL Fall weather arrives on Wednesday requiring us to break out the sweaters and jackets. Nights will see 40s N-Shore with 50s S-Shore and days struggling to get beyond 70 Wednesday & Thursday. I've gotten all my winter gear ready and so should you. After this weekend...summer weather is over.

Fronts Will Get Stronger...

2011-10-12T22:00:00.002-05:00

Kim Vaughn looked back at the past 6 years to see when the 1st "real Cold Front" moved thru SE LA/MS. She used high temps staying below 70 as her criteria. Generally, that happened after Oct. 20th and before Nov. 1st. So we are not unusual this year as we are about a week away from seeing a strong front arrive next week. Most recent models are backing off on deepening the east coast trough so the cool down should not be drastic. In addition, I see no brutally cold air building up in Canada yet. You will need your sweaters next week, but keep the scarfs and mittens in the drawer for now.

Over the Northern Gulf tonight, west winds are roaring at 80-100 kts. IF anything develops in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean the next 5-10 days, it'll be forced to the east and well to our south. We remain protected plus colder air is coming. Remember, the Fat Lady sang 2 weeks ago.

Awesome Octobers...

2011-10-11T22:06:00.002-05:00

As we transition from watching the Tropics to awaiting the first Polar Express, I'm reminded that October is often the most comfortable month with little rainfall and moderate temperatures. Gone is the beastly heat of Summer and it's too soon for the biting chill of Winter. However, there are signs that a deep trough will develop over the Great Lakes next week bringing down the coldest air so far to the Gulf South. This week's highs in the 80s may struggle to top 70 next Wed-Thursday. If you haven't changed out your wardrobe yet, this weekend is the time.

In the short term, the area of low pressure that stalled over the FL Panhandle keeping us in unexpected clouds today will lift out for Wed. bringing back sunshine and highs in the 80s. A weak front might trigger a shower near dawn Thursday before drier air filters in behind it giving us another spectacular weekend. Enjoy!

Why No Rina?

2011-10-10T21:08:00.002-05:00

After watching NHC name several storms way out in the Atlantic this summer that lasted less than 2 days and would affect no one, one wonders why they did not pull the trigger on this weekend's Florida wind/rainmaker? Several ground truth stations reported wind gusts 70-80 mph with more rainfall (5-10") than what the Hurricanes of 2004 brought to FL. Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel and Joe Bastardi also wonder why no name. NHC's reply...it wasn't warm core system. Easy doing Monday morning QBacking, but it does appear the damage reported in Brevard County warranted the naming of this system. They is nothing else brewing in the tropical Atlantic for the next 5-7 days. Stay tuned!

In the short term, as the upper low lifts out and takes the weak surface low with it, we'll stay mostly dry thru the rest of this week. A weak front will drift thru late Thurday bringing slightly cooler air for Friday & Saturday. A much stronger front should arrive next week on Tuesday or Wednesday bringing us some real cool Fall weather (40s at night, 65-70 during Day) that'll bring out your jackets and sweaters!

NHC Slow to pull trigger...

2011-10-09T20:33:00.002-05:00

Geez, we've seen NHC quickly name several small swirls way out in the ocean that lasted less than 2 days. Today satellite and radar loops clearly show a swirl off the FL east coast with buoys recording wind gust to 50+. I guess because it's truly not a tropical system since there is a well defined upper low over it, but c'mon, we want Rina! As long as it stays east of FL, it's not our problem. In fact, whatever forms(weak low), we'll continue to see a more northerly flow of drier air for most of this coming week. The following week we should finally see 'sweater weather" back, which for most of us will be welcomed. The tropics are not dead, but for us the Fat Lady has been singing for 10 days.

Gulf System Should be a Hybrid...

2011-10-08T22:35:00.002-05:00

For days computer models have been trying to develop low pressure somewhere over the FL penisula or just to the west or east of FL. Water Vapor loops show a well defined UPPER low over the eastern Gulf and that would mean whatever forms would not be a warm core tropical system, but more like a cold core winter disturbance. That would mean the wind field would be wider and the rain amounts not as heavy. Right now, whatever forms should remain to our east keeping us on the dry side thru Monday. Our strong winds will continue but the direction should back more to the north over time resulting in falling tides and less erosion. Down the road, some models hint another Gulf low could form off Tampa Bay next week. Stay tuned.

In the short term, our weekend will continue mostly dry with a stray shower mainly south of N.O. A weak front will slide thru on Tuesday, but there is no real cold air until you get way up in Canada. The next 2-3 weeks will remain on the warm side with finally some winter-like chill arriving the first week in November.

Windy Weekend, but No Storm in Gulf

2011-10-07T20:03:00.002-05:00

Water Vapor loop shows an upper low is over the eastern Gulf south of Mobile. This presents a hostile environment for any tropical development. However, it appears over time, an area of low pressure will form over the Keys or near MIA and head up the east coast just off Florida. This path will keep us on the dry side and we'll stay mostly dry but very windy into Monday or Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive by mid-week bringing back the good feel air and chasing away the humidity. Until then, we'll feel summer-like with highs 82-86 and lows around 70.

Rina in Gulf? Not Likely...

2011-10-05T22:07:00.002-05:00

Computer models have backed off regarding development of an eastern Gulf low late this weekend. It appears there will be an area of low pressure form somewhere over FL or just east of FL. It will move up the east coast bringing more rain to areas that don't need it. We'll stay on the dry side so our rain chances will stay low thru the weekend. Another cold front will arrive next Tuesday bringing back the good feel air just like this week.

In the short term, low level moisture is returning and that will make it feel more summer-like. A few showers may drift over coastal locations, but the main news will be increasing east winds causing higher tides this weekend.

Bastardi Calling For More...

2011-10-04T22:28:00.002-05:00

Mr. Joe is indicating tonight that the shift of the MJO to favorable during the next 3-4 weeks could mean as many as 2-3 October named storms coming with 1 or 2 striking the U.S. Tonight's models are all trying to develop something south of Cuba late Friday into early on Saturday. Several models(CMC, Euro) bring it into the Gulf while the GFS and VIPIR take it farther east over south Florida and then up the east coast. Bottom line for us, whatever forms will stay well to our east keeping us on the dry side. We will see winds increase dramatically staying in the 15-25 mph range over land and 20-35+ offshore. Fortunately the wind direction should retain some northerly component keeping the higher tides and surf away from us. Next name up is Rina (Ree na). Stay tuned!

In the short term, Wednesday should be another beautiful day with bright sunshine, low humidity and warm temps. It'll start to feel more summer-like again by Thursday. Rain chances should stay low through the weekend.

Hilda 1964...LA Latest Major Storm

2011-10-03T21:44:00.003-05:00

47 years ago today, Hurricane Hilda roared into South Louisiana just west of Morgan City as a Cat. 3 storm with winds of 115 mph. 22 folks died from a srong tornado near LaRose. Hilda is the lastest major Hurricane to cross the Louisiana coast in modern times. Even the 1893 storm made landfall on Oct. 2nd. So history tells us that we still can have late season Hurricanes, but they will be much weaker and our re-inforced levee system should easily handle any storm surge. Unless there is a major pattern shift in the next 3-4 weeks, the northern Gulf is likely home free for the rest of this year. Mr. Bastardi is reminding me that the MJO will enter the "favorable" stage after Oct. 15th and there could be a spin up down over the western Caribbean. It may head towards the Gulf but the westerly wind shear should steer it far to our east. Stay tuned!

In the short term, the 55 degree low at MSY is the earliest in the past 6 years that our morning lows dipped into the 50s. We are running 1-2 weeks ahead as our 1st 50 degree night usually doesn't happen until oct. 10-20th. Few complaints though as highs warm to 75-80 with low humidity. Enjoy it as the muggies return later this week.

Great, Awesome, Wow...

2011-10-02T21:47:00.002-05:00

As promised, sweaters & jackets are needed at night as the coolest weather since last April made for a terrific weekend. North Shore lows were in the 40s with much of the South Shore in the 50s with 2 more nights like that coming. The water temperature of Lake Pontchartrain fell from 82 last Thursday to 74 this morning. These colder air masses will slowly knock the Gulf waters down so they can't support tropical activity, but that will take some time. What's in our favor is the strong westerly winds(shear) that covers the Gulf. There are no signs of that changing anytime soon. Our focus now will shift from a tropical threat to the threat of frost or freezing weather. That usually doesn't happen until late November or early December on the South Shore.

In the short term, enjoy more lovely weather with cool nights and pleasantly warm days through Wednesday. A slow warming trend will get us back abover 80 by then. Who-Dat!

Finally # 4

2011-09-29T21:52:00.002-05:00

All the Hurricane Gurus are scratching their heads wondering how they can have 16 named storms but only 3 reached Hurricane force...err, make that 4 now that Ophelia has strengthened tonight. Once suggestion is that modern technology allows NHC to name every swirl that forms over the ocean. Never mind many have been so remote that they will never affect anyone, nor several so small that they didn't survive but 2-3 days. 16 named storms? Technically correct, but years ago many of those small storms would not have been named.

With the MJO currently unfavorable(sinking air), and strong westerly winds roaring across the Gulf, we will easily get deep into October before any tropical disturbance tries to head into the Gulf. By then water temps will be lower and west winds should steer anything that might develop away from us to the east. Juan did happen in late October 1985, but those storms are rare and don't require evacuation. Stay tuned.

In the short term, our next cold front will have some punch. Winds will be roaring from the north by Friday PM and the cold air could have N-Shore lows in the upper 40s by Sunday AM. Even the S-shore could dip into the high 50s. Jackets & sweaters? yea baby!

Wet Wednesday...Still Great Weekend...

2011-09-28T23:02:00.003-05:00

OK, I said yesterday that Wed. rain chances would be much better...but did I think it would be this stormy with 2-4" on the North Shore? That's why I don't use rain probabilities. NWS called for 30% chance for Wednesday. It was 100% on the North Shore and 60% on South Shore. But nothing was said about the kind of storms that clobbered the NS & coastal MS into AL & the FL beaches. Whew! What a day. Thursday should be much drier by the PM with a stronger front arriving Friday PM giving us a delightful weekend.

2 tropical storms out in the Atlantic should not affect the U.S. None of the models are now developing anything for the next 7-14 days. The Fat Lady is still singing. Anything that develops in the Gulf after Oct. 15th will historically turn well before it can reach us. Stay tuned!

Signs of Fall Heading Southward...

2011-09-27T22:01:00.002-05:00

After near record warm temperatures, several cold fronts will finally bring back that Fall Feel we enjoyed earlier (Sept. 6-10) this month. The first weaker front will stagger thru during the day on Wednesday triggering a few showers. Drier air will follow for Thursday with the re-inforcing stronger surge arriving during the day on Friday. You'll notice the different feel by Saturday morning. The core of this new cold will stay to our north and east, but any relief from the heat will be welcomed. Of course this new front will protect us from any Gulf system into next week. Several models are trying to form a storm in the Caribbean the second week in October. As long as we have the westerlies over us, any system that forms down there would be steered well to our east. Stay tuned!

More East Coast Troughs Coming...

2011-09-26T23:31:00.002-05:00

Models are indicating a more late October-early November upper air pattern developing with cold air pouring out of Canada heading down towards the Gulf coast. That will bring back the good feel air we enjoyed back in early September, but the "bite" will be bigger with each cold front meaning sweater weather is coming. The cool will come in several surges with the first arriving early Thursday re-inforced with a stronger cold surge late Friday. If the eastern trough is as deep as forecasted, we could see highs stay in the 70s both Sat-Sun with nights in the upper 50s South Shore and upper 40s-low 50s North Shore. A brief warm up returns next week followed by a stronger surge of cold air late next week. That should get the Gulf cool down going so any tropical system that might develop would encounter cooler water temps. There remain no signs of any system getting into the Gulf for the next 10-14 days. Stay tuned!

In the short term, we'll again flirt with record warmth on Tuesday(93 rec. @ MSY) and Wed. possibly into Thursday before cooler air arrives for your weekend. A few showers could develop during daytime heating for the next 2 days.

test

2011-09-26T22:22:00.001-05:00

testing

Turn Out Da Lights...Da Lady is Singing !

2011-09-25T20:07:00.002-05:00

I said I'd wait until Monday before declaring Hurricane Season 2011 nearly finished for LA/MS coasts...but why wait? None of the models have anything developing in the Gulf for the next 10-14 days. In fact, a strong cold front will push southward thru us around Oct. 10-11th bringing the coldest air since last March. That will start the process of cooling down the Gulf and ending the threat for any major storms this year. I have given the OK for the Fat Lady to start singing the end of a strange season that has seen many storms, but most of them very weak and short lived. Joe Bastardi was venting about naming storms (like Phillippe) when they are way out to sea and there is no way to verify winds except by satellite interpretation. A new satellite will be launched on Oct. 25th with some very sophisticated instruments that should help NHC solve the guessing problem. I'm just thankful Lee was our worst storm this year...stay tuned!

In the Short term, the first week of Fall will feel more summer-like until a weak front arrives late Friday-Sat. Real sweater weather will hold off until the following week.

Blocking Pattern Setting Up...

2011-09-21T22:21:00.002-05:00

Cut off upper lows happen from time to time and when they do they often cause some prolong periods of nasty weather. One such low is forecast to park around Chicago for the next 5-7 days. That places the Northeast on the "wet" side of this storm, just what they don't need after Irene and Lee. NYC & Philly both have had over 2 feet of rain during the past 2 months ! More rain is not what they need. What this low will do for us is bring down drier and slightly cooler air for the weekend into early next week. It also blocks the Gulf from any tropical systems for the rest of this month. Models have backed off developing a tropical system in the Gulf during the first week in October. I'll feel better once we get some real cold air down into the Gulf that cools the waters down. But for now, I've asked the band to start playing as the Fat Lady may be singing as soon as Monday. Stay tuned!

In the short term, a weak front may trigger some showers Thursday into early Friday. Drier air filters in for Saturday & Sunday resulting in cooler nights (50s NS, 60s SS) and pleasantly warm days. Enjoy!

Ophelia Forms in Atlantic, Phillippe Next...

2011-09-20T22:42:00.002-05:00

The season's 15th named storm has formed way out in the Atlantic and it will have a difficult time fighting the wind shear that covers much of the tropical Atlantic & Caribbean. NHC is forecasting her to make the turn to the north as most storms have done this year. With a deep cut off low predicted to develop over the Eastern U.S. over the weekend, Ophelia should not be a threat to the mainland. Pay attention down the road as several models are still trying to develop a system in the eastern Gulf during the 10-14 day time frame(Oct. 1-5). That fits in to what Joe Bastardi was saying yesterday...that there is a teleconnection between the typhoon hitting Japan tonight and a trough forming farther to our west next week. If that happens, southerly winds would open the Gulf for tropical business. That is why I'm not letting the Fat Lady sing just yet. With the MJO turning favorable again, Who knows where Phillippe will form? Stay tuned!

In the short term, as the upper low over the east deepens, it'll drag down some cooler air into the Gulf South. Any showers will be around Wednesday into early Thursday with the weekend turning dry and nice.

Confused By Forecasts, Who's Right?

2011-09-19T22:25:00.002-05:00

Yikes, just when I was going to say the Fat Lady has started to sing, I read Joe Bastardi issuing a warning about the tropics going active again in the next 3-4 weeks including threats in the Gulf from LA. eastward to FL. Then Bryan Norcross says on The Weather Channel the atmosphere looks more like November and there will be only one more named stroms. And then...Dr. Jeff Masters(Weatherunderground) says there could be another 6-7 storms (2+ hurricanes) based on history. My take is the next 10-14 days will have more cold fronts coming down cooling the northern Gulf. History tells us that once beyond the first week in October, any storms that do affect LA/MS are Trop. Storms or weak Hurricanes. I'm going to hold off on the Fat Lady singing until I see how strong this next cold front is later this week. I really feel more along the lines of Bryan Norcross with regard to the way the atmosphere looks...very Fall-ish which means any tropical systems will struggle to get very far into the Gulf before the westerlies turn them away from us.

In the short term, this last week of astronomical Summer will feel like it. Fall(Autumnical Equinox) begins here on Friday at 4:05 AM. Our next front should beat it here making us feel Fall like for this weekend. Until then, almost hot & humid with scattered daytime showers.

Tropics Still Quiet...Cold Coming Next Week

2011-09-18T19:40:00.002-05:00

NHC is tracking 2 areas tonight but none of the models bring anything into the Gulf for the next 10-14 days. In fact, the models perch a deep upper low over the Gulf South that will bring a significant cool down to us. The "Fat Lady" is on stage and has picked up the microphone. She may be singing before the end of this week. With the predicted set up, any tropical development would be steered away from us. Stay Tuned!

In the short term, the muggies are back along with some welcomed showers. It had been 12 days since the last rains from Lee fell. We will have the opportunity for more showers the next several days before a cold front arrives late on Thursday clearing us out for next weekend. Who Dat Saint's Nation !

Poor Communicators???

2011-09-15T21:06:00.002-05:00

Dr. Masters on his blog today discussed his opinion that most climate scientists are poor communicators and that is why the general public doesn't believe we are in a "climate crisis". My take is the AGW crowd has the WRONG communicator (Al Gore) leading their movement. When Carl Sagan was the front man for Space & Astronomy, he was great because he was a scientist...Dr. Carl Sagan, astrophysicist. Mr. Gore is a Politician, a man driven by an agenda and that is not saving the Planet unless it makes him money.

The tropics remain very quiet considering we are still in the most active 3-4 weeks of the season. Some of the models keep trying to develop a storm in the 5-7 day time frame and then takes it up the east coast well offshore from the U.S. None of the models develop anything in the Gulf. 15 days until October.

The Arrogance of Man...

2011-09-15T14:13:00.002-05:00

I have always been a registered Independent and truly believe BOTH parties are to blame for our current problems. But in today's Times-Pic op-ed page, a guy named Friedman wants to create even more misery in an effort to control/contain Climate Change. I am not one of those who believe climate change is a "hoax". What I do believe is we have been in a warming cycle as the history of our Planet shows has happened many times before. What I don't agree to is that man (CO2) is the driver of climate change and we must do something to stop the warming. Mr. Friedman wants to "...raise the price of dirty fuel(tax)" to somehow create a demand for renewable energy(wind,solar). The problem with that is it would hurt the poorest the most while not bothering the "rich" at all. The poor struggle to put food on the table, gas in their car to get to work yet this fella wants to place more taxes on the very things that are necessities to staying alive. Who of you believe that putting a tax on carbon (gasoline tax), raising more money for government will do anything ...'to mitigate climate change?" Climate has always been changing and always will. When the Earth starts to cool again (some believe it already is), what are the alarmists going to do to stop climate from changing? Burn more wood, start forest fires?

Lull Continues...But For How Long?

2011-09-14T21:45:00.002-05:00

Maria may become a Cat. 1 Hurricane tomorrow as she brushes by Bermuda, but there is nothing else tonight that looks like it could develop into a tropical system any time soon. Way out in the Atlantic, NHC says a weak swirl has a 10% chance of developing but even if it does, it'll follow the track of most ATL storms this season...east of Florida. Several models are again trying to form something in the western Caribbean 5-7 days from now, but each day we get closer to October, the less likely it is that we'll have to evacuate this season. Long range models are bringing down a REAL cold front the 1st week in October and that will finally put an end to the major storm threat for us. The "Fat Lady" has been in the building and is now approaching the stage. I'll let you know when she's ready to sing! Stay Tuned !

In the short term, a weak front will sweep thru during the day on Thursday bringing drier and slightly cooler air. You won't notice it much during the day, but the nights should be more comfortable.

Al Gore is at it again tonight promoting his agenda of saving the Planet for his personal gain. You can follow him on the internet if you choose to get "educated". I'm going to sleep trying not to exhale too much CO2.

Tropics Sleeping Again...

2011-09-13T22:24:00.002-05:00

Mid September often sees some of the strongest hurricanes, but this year is really strange. For instance, Worldwide, there are no hurricanes or typhoons tonight. In fact, the 2 Tropical Storms (Maria in ATL and Roke in W. Pac) are very weak. What is going on? 14 named storms yet only 2 reached hurricane force? What is keeping the lid on these storms? The MJO went favorable for about 3 weeks but now the tropics are back asleep. Several models keep trying to develop something down in the Caribbean in the next 7-10 days, but there is no model run to run consistency. No storms coming off of Africa, nothing in the "pipeline", lots of shear in the Gulf and Caribbean and October is getting closer each day. All you tropical Gurus out there, any ideas? Why so few major storms? Water temps were supposed to trigger lots of Cat.3-5 storms.

In the short term, we'll feel like summer again on Wednesday and into Thursday. A weak front will stagger down to us, but the core of the cold will stay well to our north. Most model runs dry out the front as it gets near us. Hopefully we'll see some drier air behind it for Fri-Sunday and that should make for more comfy nights once again.

Cold Building Up North...

2011-09-12T22:08:00.002-05:00

Well it's only mid September, but the "Fat Lady" has entered the building and she's approaching the stage. No, she's not ready to sing signaling an end to this year's Hurricane Season. But it is promising to see such early season cold fronts coming. Last week felt terrific. This next front won't be as strong late Thursday but the one next week looks much stronger. Yea I'm aware several models keep trying to form something down in the Caribbean and head it into the southern Gulf, but IF these fronts keep coming, tropical systems hate cold air. Could it be an early end to the season here along the northern Gulf? Stay tuned.

In the short term, southerly winds are bringing back the muggies and should result in more clouds Tuesday and Wednesday. However our rain chances don't appear to go up until that weak front arrives Thursday PM and even then chances are only 20-30%. It's back to sprinkling the garden.

Tropics Going Quiet...For Now.

2011-09-11T22:42:00.002-05:00

With Nate now inland and gone and with Maria showing signs of turning away from the east coast, we may see no tropical activity for the next 7-10 days. An early season strong cold front will surge southward out of Canada, but it will struggle to get down to us. I still think IF we are to get another tropical threat it is likely to come from the tail end of a cold front that makes it into the Gulf. The later into the season we get, the less likely any threat will be from a major storm. Yea I know the GFS has one in the NE Gulf at day 14, but what have we said about model accuracy that far out?

Has this been an active Hurricane season? If you go by the total number of named storms one would say yes. However, if you use the ACE(Acumilated Cyclone Energy) Index, you find this year is way below average. Yea we have seen lots of named storms, but most have been weak swirls that lasted a day or two. Humidity returns this week along with the summer-like heat.

Nate No Problem for U.S.

2011-09-10T16:27:00.002-05:00

Nate appears to be getting stronger, but he's not too far from the Mexican coast and should move inland way south of Brownsville. That's unfortunate since south Texas could use the rain from a weak hurricane. The other system out in the Atlantic(Maria) will follow the track of previous storms this season up the east coast and out to sea. In fact, looking at the long range models there is nothing that appears to get into the Gulf for the next 10-14 days. Since October is only 3 weeks away, I am encouraged that we could be out of danger from a major hurricane threat for this year. October has seen only one (1893) major landfalling hurricane in Louisiana and that came during the first week of the month. I don't see any strong cold fronts coming for awhile so it's way too early to feel totally safe since much of the Gulf is still warm. Stay tuned!

Another beauty today, but the heat will be back next week.

Thank Lee for No Nate...

2011-09-09T17:00:00.002-05:00

The surface circulation of T.S. Lee has long been gone, however, there remains a leftover upper low that has become stalled across the Ohio Valley. That is producing a west to northwest wind flow all the way down into the northern Gulf. 2 days ago, it was thought the upper low might deepen and pick up Nate and bring him northward, but that appears not likley to happen. Nate is stuck in an area of limited steering, but he should begin to drift slowly westward into Mexico by early next week. Looking ahead for the next 10-14 days, there are no signs of another storm forming in the Gulf. Only 3 weeks until October and more fronts will be coming. Not ready to signal an all clear for this Hurricane Season, but things are looking promising that we won't have to do an evacuation this year. Stay tuned!

Gotta love this weather ! Now if my golf could be as good? Nah !

Nate Stalled...Should Become a Hurricane...

2011-09-08T22:59:00.002-05:00

If I hear anyone say..."reliable computer model", I'll scream !!! I have never seen such a flip-flop of models in a single day. Last night Nate into Mexico...this morning Nate northward to the Gulf Coast...tonight Nate back into Mexico. That's 360 degrees in one day ! So how can you believe the "consensus" of the models tonight? I still have concern that a deepening trough over the weekend could pick Nate up and bring him northward late Saturday or Sunday. Until Nate makes landfall in Mexico, my guard is still up. Stay tuned!

In the short term, our great Fall feel will hang around another 1-2 days before the muggies return along with a few showers late Sunday. We're not done with the summer heat as we'll be near 90+ next week.

Model Contagion...

2011-09-08T14:29:00.002-05:00

Afternoon update...I'm sure many of you noticed the morning models(VIPIR included) flopped from Mexico northward to the Gulf coast (LA to FL). Now the afternoon runs have flipped back to Mexico. Satellite loops show Nate stationary with the center not too far off the Mexican coast. Bottom line...no one knows where Nate will go since Nate is going nowhere. Even if Nate came straight northward to the mouth of the River, that wouldsn't happen until Monday, 4 days from now. We have plenty of time to wait and watch. There is no threat to us AT THIS MOMENT. Could that change? Absolutely, but my gut tells me it's 80% chance Mexico/Lower Texas with a 20% chance Central Gulf Coast. Relax, I'll have another update late PM or this evening.

"Reliable" Computer Models...

2011-09-07T22:10:00.002-05:00

Yesterday the "reliable" European model brought a strong tropical disturbance right into Louisiana. Today it has flipped flopped and now takes the system into Mexico. That is why you should not get too excited when you see any model bring a storm into the Gulf or make Louisiana the bulls-eye, especially if it's beyond 5 days out. I think the reason the models are having difficulty this year is because most of the storms are weak, lopsided, short lived or all of the above. Models do very well with strong hurricanes (Cat. 3,4,5). It's the weaker system that seems to confused the models.

Tonight we have TS Nate way down in the Gulf and unless something strange happens, he will not be a problem for the Northern Gulf Coast. All models (including VIPIR) except one, take Nate into Mexico south of the Texas border. We'll keep an eye on it, but for now it appears not to be our problem.

The current cool spell along with the churning of the Gulf waters from TS Lee has dramatically dropped water temps. Before Lee the inside marsh waters were in the lower 90s. Today they are in the mid to upper 70s! Of course most of the Gulf remains warm as it will take more than one cold front to cool down that big body of water. Enjoy several more days of cool mornings and pleasantly warm afternoons before the muggies return next week.

"

2011-09-07T22:08:00.001-05:00

Nate has formed in Extreme Southern Gulf...

2011-09-07T16:32:00.002-05:00

It didn't take long for NHC to name TS Nate after the hurricane hunters found a circulation and 40+ mph winds. Most computer models struggle with Nate for the next 2-3 days meandering it around before drifting it towards the upper Mexican/lower Texas coast by Monday night. This would keep our great feel weather going with a slow warming trend thru the weekend. AT THIS TIME, Nate is no threat to Louisiana, but let's not totally forget about him. Models have not done real well lately and I hate when I hear weathercasters say "reliable computer models". Stay Tuned !

Storm in the Gulf? Most models say Not Here.

2011-09-06T22:05:00.002-05:00

NHC has scheduled a plane to fly down to the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday if it appears a depression is starting to organize along the tail end of a cold front that has brought delightful air to all of the Gulf South. Computer models are doing all kinds of loops with this system much like they did with TS Lee. Thought Dr. Masters comment regarding where/if a low forms will dictate what direction it will go. "If it forms farther to the north near the tip of the Yucatan, the system may drift northward. If it forms farther to the south, it would go west or south". So until something forms, Let's not get too excited or worried about it. The Atlantic Basin remains active with Hurricane Katia expected to make the turn between Bermuda and the Carolinas with minimum impacts. Behind it will be TD 14 which should become Maria later on Wednesday. It too is expected to make the turn, however, her turn will come later and she could impact the Islands and Puerto Rico.

In the short term, days will be warm and dry with nights comfy cool approaching record lows for the next 3-4 days. Enjoy.

Welcomed Early Fall Preview...

2011-09-05T19:42:00.002-05:00

The remains of TS Lee are pulling away with unusually cool air descending into the Gulf south. The cold front will sweep deep into the Gulf and today's model runs have backed off anything forming along the southern end later this week. This will be a delightful Fall preview with morning lows in the 50s on the N-shore and in the 60s south of Lake P. We could approach some record lows. We will be protected from any tropical systems for the next 7-10 days as the deep trough that is bringing us the cooler air will linger over the eastern states. However, beyond 10 days that trough leaves and we will have to watch the Caribbean and Gulf from Sept,15-30th. Katia will become a major hurricane and she still could threaten the east coast although all models turn her away. Fotunately, she is not our problem. Another disturbance out in the Atlantic is becoming better organized and Maria is likely to be named soon.

Rainfall from Lee was generally between 10-13" but it was spread out over 3-4 days. The flooding came from storm tides that reached 4-5 feet above normal...another sign that there is less coast left to block/knock down the waves of tropical systems. After August being our driest ever (1.16"), we may challenge the wettest September (18.98" 1998) as MSY is now at 11.05" ranking # 8 wettest so far. Enjoy the cool !

Lee Downgraded, More Rain Over Night...

2011-09-04T22:01:00.002-05:00

NHC has written its final advisory on now Trop. Depression Lee, however, radar loops show a lingering band of moderate showers moving across the city so we are not done with Lee's rainfall. Storm total amounts were generally 10-15" over a 4 day period with a tide rise in lake Pontchartrain being 3 1/2 to 4 feet. Tides along the coast were 4-5 feet above normal resulting in many levees being over topped especially in lower Plaquemines. The OLD Harvey canal levee (3 1/2 ft)was overtopped but there is NO danger the water can rise to the new 20' high concrete levee that protects homes. Water levels will remain high over night(high tides in AM) until we have a wind shift to the West-Northwest. Let's hope any new storms that might threaten us during the next 3-4 weeks will be better behaved than Lee. Early computer models indicated there would be problems as many forecasted loops and curves with Lee's future track and those tracks were for 3-5 days out. Yes, several models are forecasting a possible Gulf system for next weekend (7 days away), but why should we believe them? Again, I don't get concerned over something that hasn't formed yet. Let's recover from Lee and get some sleep. Thanks for your support.

Lee Finally Moving !

2011-09-04T09:49:00.002-05:00

After sitting just off the LA. coast all night, the center of TS Lee is now on the move inland just SE of LAF. Winds are still gusting to 45-50, but those should diminish as the storm moves farther inland. We have another 3-4 hours of rain showers before we begin to dry out. Winds will shift to the west later this afternoon and then around to the NW after dark. That will allow the high waters to drain out of the lakes and marshes and put an end to coastal flooding. VIPIR once again is faster on lifting Lee to the NE. Recent radar movement indicates to me that NHC is too slow in their forecast and VIPIR may be right. The faster movement is much better for us as it gets the rain out sooner and the wind shift here quicker. Let's see which one is correct.

Lee Still Stalled...

2011-09-03T22:14:00.003-05:00

Question was "how was NHC wrong"? Frankly, everyone has been wrong with one thing or another. NHC was too slow on moving Lee to the coast while our VIPIR model was faster. VIPIR was wrong on the location as were all models not forecasting Lee to stall and move westward. However, many models did predict Lee might make several loops. Let's face it, this has not been a "normal" storm. Tonight's radar loop, to me, has Lee making such a loop that has taken the center back out into the Gulf. Let's hope that is temporary as NHC says Lee should start his NNE movement before daybreak. Because of that, FOX 8 will be doing hourly cut ins all night and I'll be back on-air with Dawn Brown for a special 6-10 AM newscast on Sunday. If Lee follows the NHC track, impacts will be greater across the North Shore on Sunday. And all this time we haven't even mentioned how Katia may threaten the east coast next week!

In the short term, after one more day of some showers and gusty winds along with the tropical muggies...Lee's rotation will bring down a "real" cold front for Tuesday thru Friday with nighttime lows in the 60s on the S-Shore(50s NS) and daytime highs mid 80s with low humidities and plenty of sunshine. It'll be an early October preview that will be much welcomed!

Lee has double center...

2011-09-03T11:45:00.003-05:00

Wow, what a great satellite view on the visible channel showing 2 well defined swirls rotating around each other.
Visible Loop
NHC said they split the difference in determining Lee's location. A huge dry slot has rotated around the southern side and should bring us some sunny breaks this afternoon. We still will have some heavy squalls, but there will be enough breaks to allow the pumps to keep up. Until Lee's circulation gets to our north and east, we'll continue to have a heavy rain threat plus high water due to the strong ESE winds. 9.24" of rain has fallen at FOX 8 so far with more likely as Lee comes by us on Sunday. We are not done with the flooding threat yet, but you should be able to get out and about this afternoon in most areas. We still have some flooded streets mainly outside the levee protection system. Next post this evening.

P.S. VIPIR's timing of Lee(being faster) was correct. All models linger Lee around BTR/MSY for another 24 hours before picking him up and taking him to the NE.

Lee Moving faster?

2011-09-02T22:51:00.002-05:00

Satellite and radar loops are showing a faster moving system tonight which would agree with our VIPIR computer model. Saturday still looks like the worst day especially in the morning. The rain shield should start to lift away on Sunday, but it'll still be quite windy. NW winds late Sunday into Monday will help drain the high waters out of Lake Pontchartrain and much drier air will flow in behind Lee. Night time lows will dip into the 60s north of Lake P. We have a real fall feeling for much of next week. I'll have an update in the AM. Strongest storms should be between 4 AM - 12 noon. Stay tuned. Katia is now back to a hurricane and models have shifted her track closer to the east coast. She will not be our problem.

Computer Models Confused?

2011-09-01T23:05:00.002-05:00

Wow, I have never seen such confusion on future motion by all the models tonight. There is some agreement on 1) slow motion and 2) slow strengthening, but loops and double loops...oh my! Add in tonight's satellite loops show a flair up of storms way down in the Gulf far removed from where NHC says TD 13 is. Wind shear still covers the northern Gulf, but for how long? This is much different than tracking a Katrina, a Gustav, a Rita or Ike. Those were well formed and long tracked. This system is ill defined and has no history forming just to our south. Before everyone freaks out, let's watch it for another day. Just be ready to get home and off the roads if the tropical rain bands arrive and start flooding our streets. If you haven't gotten all your supplies, do it early on Friday before things get worse. I'll update during the day Friday.

TD 13 in Gulf

2011-09-01T19:02:00.002-05:00

Just a quick update...NHC says TD 13 will become T.S. Lee during the day on Friday. Their track takes it to the LA. Coast during the day on Saturday keeping us on the wet side. Rainfall amounts could exceed 10-20 inches due to the slow movement of this system. Development will be slow because we currently have upper wind shear. That will change by the weekend and there is the potential this system could become a strong TS or weak hurricane before landfall. Will update after 10 PM.

Lee Likely by Weekend...

2011-08-31T22:45:00.002-05:00

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical disturbance over the south central Gulf on Thursday so we should finally know if we indeed have a center of circulation. As I mentioned last night, it is difficult to predict where "it" is going when you don't know where "it" is. I have never seen the spread/loops on the various computer models which tells me there is great uncertainty regarding whatever forms. All bring something towards the LA/MS coast and slow it down or stall it for 2-3 days. NWS now has upped their rainfall extimate to 8-10"+ for the South Shore by Monday. I should point out that the real heavy rain events in the past have NEVER been predicted ahead of time. That 8-10" could easily top 20"+ creating widespread flooding and limiting travel around the metro area. Slow moving tropical storms scare me, not for their winds, but for the sometimes incredible amounts of rain they generate (Allison 30-40"+). Right now there is enough wind shear over the northern Gulf to prevent any major system from forming, but that could change by Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned and be prepared for a real soggy 4-5 days.

In the short term, the marsh fire is likely to still be a problem for one more day until the real rains arrive on Friday. Go Saints on FOX 8 Thursday at 7 PM.

Gulf Storm Coming?

2011-08-30T22:27:00.002-05:00

Most computer models are trying to form something in the Central/Western Gulf in the next 3-4 days. The Euro. takes the system southwestward down off the Texas coast. The GFS forms it off the LA. Coast south of LAF while VIPIR is the most aggressive bringing a TD/TS slowly northward into So. LA. just to our west keeping us on the "wet side" of whatever forms. As I have mentioned before...hard to tell where "it" is going when we don't yet know where "it" is ! Bottom line...we have the potential of seeing heavy/excessive (5-10"+) rainfall beginning on Thursday lasting into/thru Saturday. Some past stalled/slow moving tropical storms (Danny-Mobile, Allison-Houston) produced 30-40"+ causing widespread significant flooding. It truly is time to pay attention as we say goodbye to August and welcome to September, our historically most active hurricane month. Stay tuned!

In the short term, Wednesday should be our final dry day for a while. The smoke from the marsh fire may still be around, but increasing winds and rains on Thursday will put an end to that. Several strong cold fronts are coming as we get beyond the next 7-10 days. C'mon October!