Models Nailed It...

One of my complaints is that most weathercasters are married to the models.  In other words, if the model says it, it must be right.   I often try to second guess the models based on what I see on satellite & radar loops.  Yesterday I felt that the models were far too fast in bringing in today’s T-Storms between 2-5 PM.  I felt the line would slow down.  Reality has proven  the models were far more correct.  In fact, the rains moved in slightly faster than the models predicted.   Fortunately, most of the severe weather stayed to our north, although I had one of my large tree limbs crash down and take out a section of my fence.    Fortunately it hit my fence and not my house.  Which reminds me of the danger many of us face with large tree shading our properties.   When the strong winds blow during a tropical system, we must be prepared to take action if a tree falls on our structure.   The tall pines on the North Shore are very heavy and you must be aware of that danger when a storm is coming.  I have much smaller water oaks and they don’t extend over my house.   Just be aware of your personal situation.   Large trees around my property might make me want to evacuate rather than risk the lives of my loved ones.  

 

We should enjoy 2 very nice days with lower humidity & abundant sunshine.  Our next system will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with more storms.  Cooler and drier air should make for a great 2^nd Jazz Fest Weekend.  Stay tuned!

Big Events Usually Mean Bad Weather

It seems every time we have special outdoor events (New Year’s Fireworks, Mardi Gras, Jazz Fest, Zurich Golf Classic, Zoo-to –Do), weather plays a factor.   This weekend is no exception although the 1^st 2 days of Jazz Fest & Golf have been dry but windy.  Sunday could be a problem as a well-defined upper low over New Mexico begins to march towards the east.  Timing, as always, will be the key factor.  Most computer models bring some rain in during the afternoon hours and that has prompted the Golf Tourney to move up tee times to just after daybreak in an attempt to beat the rain.  Jazz Fest can’t do that.  They will play as long as lightning and strong winds are not a problem.   The best case scenario would be for the rain/squall line to slow down and not arrive until after dark.  That could happen, but remember, slowing down will mean heavier rainfall totals and NWS is still going with 2-4” area wide.  This is the first system to affect us before a stronger system arrives Wed-Thursday of next week.   Significantly cooler & drier air will follow for the second weekend of Jazz Fest. 

 

Of note, 2 of our biggest rain events happened during the first 2 weeks of May (’78 & ’95) as a cold front stalled moving through Southeast LA/MS.    Not saying that will happen here tomorrow, but pay attention to the weather.  If a “training scenario” develops, our 2-4” totals could quickly zoom up to 5-8” causing significant flooding.   Dew points are well into the 70s indicating there is plenty of moisture to work with.   My gut says the models are too fast and the main rains here will be between 8 PM Sunday and 6 AM Monday.  Regardless, let’s be ready to react if the weather turns bad.  Stay tuned!

 

Breaking news….Plant update.       Bubba still has 5 tomatoes on it with many more blossoms.  I remember reading somewhere that once the temps get 85+, blossoms won’t set fruit.  I hope not.  As for Bozo(satsuma), the strong winds have knocked off 4 of the 6 fruit on it.     Bozo is on borrowed time.  If those 2 drop, he’s history.  The lemon (Bleulah) and the grapefruit (Boudreaux) also had some fruit knocked off by the winds.  However, both trees have plenty of fruit left on them.   

War on Science? Huh?

OMG.  Today is Earth Day and people (sheep) are marching again.  Why?  Reality says is all about power & money.   President Trump wants to reduce the funding to many science organizations & government departments as a means to rein in waste and limit fraud.  This is viewed as a “ War on Science”.  All media gave extensive coverage to these marches around the country, which is OK.  But where was the media this past week during a SCIENTIFIC meeting here in New Orleans, the National Hurricane Conference?  What used to have satellite trucks from all the hurricane prone markets barely saw 10 of us media folk there, and 4 were from NOLA.   I see a double standard here.   Cover the agenda you want to support, but ignore the REAL science that is taking place.   Several of my friends attending the conference voiced their concern about all the government grants being focus on social media.   We fund too many programs with questionable missions.  Reminds me of when I was back in Ann Arbor in the 60s and my Professor had a government grant to study Air pollution.  No, the grant wasn’t for how to reduce or eliminate air pollution, but it was how high does the smoke stack need to be built so that the pollution will be dissipated downstream from the source to not cause health problems!   A total waste of government funding back then as we learned later that the pollution traveled hundreds of miles from the source.  The climate modelers have been having a 20 year run of feeding at the public trough, but they have hardly ever been questioned about their accuracy, or lack of it.    I don’t care which political party you support, but if you don’t think our government doesn’t waste billions of our tax dollars, then you have never been to any “scientific” meetings.

 

Which I did last week.  The Hurricane Conference produced several things I didn’t know.  Like the spaghetti plot display that we all see each hurricane season.  I didn’t know that the 3 most accurate models are not included in those plots.  Why, because they come from private sources and are not free to the public.  So the next time you see a local weathercaster use those spaghetti plots, just know they didn’t attend this year’s conference.  Some things I did know were repeated…like did you know the cone of error only captures 2/3 of the past storms and that 1/3 have occurred OUTSIDE the cone?   Some good news.  Back in 1980, the 24 hour error was over 100 miles.  Today that same error is down to 45 miles.  The models have really gotten better on the track forecasting while the intensity forecasting still lags.  Here’s one area where more research money is needed.

 

Finally, a real cold front is coming.  Yep, might need sweaters and jackets for church in the morning.  The cold won’t last long.  We’ll be back to 80+ by Tuesday.  Stay tuned!

Another CYCLE Man...

As many of you know, I am a big fan of CYCLES regarding weather & climate.   A study of geology confirms this “theory” in the history of sedimentary rocks & fossils.   How refreshing it was sitting in a talk at the National Hurricane Conference and hearing about CYCLEs in the patterns of past hurricanes.    The presenter was Dr. Phil Klotzbach , who has taken over for the late Dr. Bill Gray in giving this year’s hurricane forecast.  Dr. Gray was the 1^st to discover a pattern to the number of hurricanes in any decade based on a set of parameters that seemed to be connected.  He was often the lone voice stating that climate change was NOT influencing the number or intensity of storms.   So far that has proven correct as we currently are in the longest lull in major U.S. land falling hurricanes.     His prediction for a slightly below average season really doesn’t mean much for us since there is no skill in indicating location or timing.   He indicated that the biggest key for this season is whether another El Nino develops.  If it does, that is bad news for hurricanes.    I’ll be back down at the Hurricane Conference for the next 3 days.  Stay tuned!

 

Got home to find my garden got a good soaking with over 2”+ of much needed rainfall.   We are getting into the time of the year where storm totals get very spotty.  One area could get several inches while a few blocks away very little falls.   It’s called summer in the south, although temperature-wise we remain not so hot…just yet.

Proper Planning Prevents Poor Performance...

I’m reading a book by a local author/Doctor friend (Rob Muller) called Hospital Emergency Management.   The timing is perfect since the 2017 National Hurricane Conference begins Monday here in New Orleans.   I’ll be listening to talks all week describing lessons learned from past storms and how to prevent future mistakes.  2 of my colleagues (David Bernard & Nicondra Norwood) at FOX 8 will be speakers and I look forward to their presentations.   The 2017 seasonal hurricane  forecast always draws the biggest crowds even though its value is very limited.   People want to know the future despite the uncertainty of the forecast and the limited skill involved.  Will we see a threat or two this summer?  Probably, but that’s just because of our location in the center of the Gulf Coast.  What concerns me is the record lack of a major land falling hurricane crossing the U.S. Coastline.  It’s been 12 years since Wilma back in 2005.   Sooner or later, the law of averages takes over.   What I’m hearing is the total number of named storms will be below normal due to a small El Nino that is expected to appear during the next 3-6 months.  But you’ve heard the sermon before…it only takes one.   I’ll have more during the week.  Stay tuned!

 

Weather wise, we are on the last 2-3 weeks of comfortable weather before you know what’s coming.    Usually by the 2^nd & 3^rd weeks in May, the climbing temps into the upper 80s combined with the tropical muggies make many of us dreading the next 4-5 months.   Frankly, I can deal with the heat better than the cold of Winter.  We are past any real cold, but I expect we could see another front or two pass through bringing drier air that will make for comfy cool nights.  That won’t happen this week, but it won’t be unbearably hot either.

Dry Spell May End...

After getting some significant rainfall the 1^st several days of April, we have seen zero for the past 9-10 days.   That’s not a big deal right now as our highs are only in the 80s.  In 4-6 weeks, we’ll be flirting with 90+ every day and prolonged dry spells will impact lawns and gardens to a much greater extent.   Right now I’m getting away with watering my plants every other day and my lawn about once a week.   So when will it rain again?  Usually after I get my car washed! Or…when a big event is coming. (Easter)    The past several days have felt delightful as dew points have been in the 40s & 50s, but that is about to change.  Winds will shift back off the Gulf by late Friday and you’ll start to feel the difference in the air.  Will it be warmer?  Not really, but it will FEEL warmer with higher humidity.  As dew points get back into the 60s, we should start to see a few daytime heating showers on Saturday with even more on Easter Sunday.  It won’t rain all day, but it won’t be as pretty as today either.  Historically, April & May have brought us some of our worst floods since fronts lose their southward push and often stall near or around us.  That creates the potential for “training” of storms over the same track resulting in enormous totals in a short period of time.  I don’t see any front coming for this weekend, but we could see some training of showers that could soak some spots while others not far away remain dry.

 

I have just returned from 5 wonderful days in Puerto Vallarta where the weather was very similar to ours.   Many thousands of Americans have 2^nd homes there as the cost of living is very inexpensive.  It truly is one of the prettiest places on Earth and it won’t break your bank to make a visit.   A quick Bubba update…he now has 4 small tomatoes with many more blossoms.  I have dusted him with Sevin as some critters (leaf miners) started to show up.  If all goes well, I should have some tomatoes to pick in about 4 weeks.   Bozo (satsuma) has kept some fruit so I will allow him at least another season to show me he can be a productive tree.  See where today is David Bernard’s birthday.  Scary to think I’m old enough to be his Father!   But then that’s why I’m retired!  Stay tuned!

Bubba Has Babies !!!

Well I think technically the term is Bubba has fruit.   Several of the blossoms have turned into teeny tiny tomatoes and I expect to have something to pick by the middle of May…provided the birds & bugs don’t beat me to it!  Even Bozo (satsuma tree) has held about 6-8 fruit.   The last storm blew off some fruit so that was a bummer.   But if I can just get a couple of satsumas this year, that’ll be progress.  The grapefruit is loaded again with several hundred and I’m thinking of a name for it.  Any ideas?   Beulah?  Bodacious?   Bert?   Gotta stick with the Bs.

 

As we get deeper into April and the sun angle gets higher with the lengthening days, the cold fronts become less frequent & their intensity moderates greatly.  Sure felt great today with the low humidity and you almost need a jacket or sweater in the early mornings.   That will slowly change into the weekend and you’ll feel the return of the muggies by Sunday at the latest.  There will be another front next week, but it doesn’t look as strong as this past one.   Looking up to Ann Arbor tonight and it’s in the 30s & snowing!   Reminds me of the time I took the family back to Indiana from Dayton for Easter.  It was April 7-8^th and Hammond got 6-8” of “heart attack” snow.  It looked pretty but when it turned to slush, it sure messed up our Easter outfits going to church.   Perhaps that’s why I retired in the South?   Stay tuned!

Severe Threat Still Real...

Today’s severe weather has remained to our west and north and is likely to stay that way for most of tonight.   The primary upper disturbance has moved out of New Mexico into north Texas with a secondary system approaching San Antonio.  That second system is triggering new storms off the lower Texas coast and will possibly be near us during the morning hours on Monday.  In addition, because of the slow motion of the whole system and the orientation more north to south of the storms, training may allow some heavy rain totals to cause street flooding.  Parts of SW Louisiana received over 5” today and those totals could be over us on Monday.  Bottom line…keep paying attention and keep your phones charged in case warnings are needed on Monday.  The way I see it, the 4 AM thru noon period on Monday will be our “under the gun” period for strong storms.   For the next 6-8 hours, I don’t expect much to happen.  It’s mainly after daybreak that we will have to pay attention.   Watching Nicondra show the models tonight, I think they are way too fast.  Hopefully, our main problem will just be some training heavy rain storms and not any major tornado outbreak.   That’s why you need the FOX 8 Weather App that will alert you if you’re sleeping and warnings are issued.  If that happens, get up and turn on FOX 8 as they will be manning the office all night and tracking any storms for you on VIPIR Radar.   Stay tuned!

Real Severe Weather Threat

As you know, I am very cautious regarding severe weather threats.  If you always cry wolf and the wolf never comes, the viewers will tune you out after many false alarms.   I’m also aware the “wolf” did come several weeks ago in the form of an EF 3 tornado in N.O. East.  So it truly is a balancing act that requires forecasting experience & skill.   What I’m seeing tonight is another strong upper disturbance slowly moving out of New Mexico into west Texas.  There is a strong sub-tropical jet stream racing to our south across the central Gulf with a splitting of the jet streams setting to take place right over east Texas & south Louisiana.  Couple in lots of low level moisture streaming in from the southeast & you have all the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak over the deep south.   Translation…we have SE surface winds, SW upper level winds providing the turning of winds with height (wind shear) & the diverging upper winds creating the “flue in the chimney” effect allowing the low level convergence to be evacuated at the higher levels.   Bottom line, all of us will need to pay attention to our weather beginning Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.  Again, the best thing to do is down load the FOX 8 weather app into your phone and go to settings to turn on the alerts you want.  It’s a great tool for lightning, flooding & thunderstorm/tornado warnings.  We may not see damaging storms but there will be that potential.  Plus, we could see some very heavy rainfall as NWS is indicating 3-6”. 

 

Looking down the road, a fairly strong cold front will arrive for Thursday & Friday cooling us down where we’ll need sweaters and jackets again.  We have been too warm for too soon in the season so this cooldown will be a welcomed change.  Stay tuned, especially for Sunday night & Monday.