Friday, August 27, 2021

Hurricane Ida Reaches The Gulf...

Satellite views show the center of Hurricane Ida has just moved off Cuba and is heading into the Gulf where warm water & low wind shear should allow her to strengthen into a major storm.  NHC projects a Cat. 4 (140 mph) at landfall and it could be stronger.



The upper low over the western Gulf is pulling away allowing Ida no issues to deal with.  Her circulation has been disrupted somewhat, but that should quickly recover once she's away from Cuba.  Some good news is the intensity models have backed off a little bit.


The top graphic is the model runs from this afternoon while the bottom is the latest runs.  Notice most models now are saying Cat. 3 with only 2 going Cat. 4.



The spaghetti plots appear to have shifted slightly back to the EAST and I suspect the NHC 10 PM track will show that.  Here is the 10 PM NHC track.





At first glance, it's hard to see any change, and there isn't.   NHC even says they have "high confidence" in their forecast track.  Looking at the bottom 2 graphics you see the top one has the center line track now back between Morgan City and Houma (a shift back to the EAST) with the bottom track from 4 PM right over Morgan City.   This is not the news we want to hear.  Unless the track shifts farther to the west, parts of NOLA will see the eyewall late Sunday resulting is winds 100+ and widespread power outages.  That is why many of you should get out tomorrow.  Here's a map of where NOT to go.


Timing remains the same with crunch time Sunday PM into midday on Monday.  I know it's hard to leave home, but look at the potential heavy rain threat.

That's 10-15" for most of us with a 15-20" band to our west.  So do you want to stay where there will be no power (no AC) for days and water covering the streets making travel difficult?    I'll be posting again before 8 AM and I hope many of you will be already on the road or ready to hit the road to get out of harm's way.  I plan to close my shutters in the morning and have all plants securely in my He-Shed.  Stay tuned!


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15 comments:

  1. Bob’s biggest fanAugust 27, 2021 at 10:42 PM

    Aw maaaaAaaaan Bob.

    How imma get a lasagna in the mail?
    If I evacuate how am I gonna MAIL A LASGNA!?

    Make this storm go away!

    We all know you can do it!

    Bless up
    Go Saints
    Who dat

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownAugust 27, 2021 at 11:52 PM

      Umm..what? I love lasagna but kinda lost here.

      Delete
  2. LLAugust 27, 2021 at 10:42 PM

    Thank you for continuing to share your expertise in meteorology. You’ve been a long standing family fav!
    Thank you from Pass Christian, MS

    ReplyDelete
  3. rcgAugust 27, 2021 at 11:03 PM

    Thanks Bob. Always look to your views during hurricane 🌀 season. Glad you are with us

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownAugust 27, 2021 at 11:03 PM

    This is so scary thanks for your knowledge Bob Breck you all stay safe.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Justin TriayAugust 27, 2021 at 11:23 PM

    Hey bob this is Jt from gentilly we gonna ride it out thirty years in gentilly Bob born an raised we got the generatar ready to rock n roll love y.Ou BOB

    ReplyDelete
  6. James RichardsonAugust 27, 2021 at 11:29 PM

    Live in Lafayette will it be as bad or worse than Hurricane Andrew?

    ReplyDelete
  7. ChristopherAugust 27, 2021 at 11:52 PM

    Have my babies mr breck

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownAugust 27, 2021 at 11:55 PM

    Recommended to your page by a FB friend. Enjoying your perspective. In BR but you are close enough. 👍

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  9. UnknownAugust 28, 2021 at 2:18 AM

    So Bob do you currently have an apprentice to continue your legacy?? #QuestionsThatNeedAnswers

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  10. UnknownAugust 28, 2021 at 2:44 AM

    Will the high pressure get stronger or weaker allieing the storm to shift further west or farther east

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  11. HundredOaksAugust 28, 2021 at 4:14 AM

    Track shifted west with the 4 am forecast

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  12. UnknownAugust 28, 2021 at 4:30 AM

    Is there a bigger potential for damage with the storm further west of the MS River... those levees haven't been touched have they?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Mrs. RampageAugust 28, 2021 at 4:33 AM

    Thank you Bob! You’re my most trusted source! Be safe

    ReplyDelete
  14. UnknownAugust 28, 2021 at 6:49 AM

    This is so scary once again we find ourselves in the middle of a mad force of mother nature. We've decided to ride this one out. Always a fan of yours...life long residents of St. Bernard

    ReplyDelete