Tuesday, August 26, 2008

"Children" get a grip...

Geez...reading all the doom & gloom scenarios, one would think we all gonna die from Gustav. Let's be reasonable. 1) latest info from recon aircraft indicates Gustav has WEAKENED as he interacts with the mountains of Haiti. 2) The forecast error at 5 days is nearly 300 miles! As I have said in the past...I want New Orleans to be the bulls eye at 5 days because it won't come here...it will be on either side of the center line track by a large distance. 3) It's far too soon to cancel your weekend plans just because some "computer models" say Gustav is coming into the central Gulf. Today is only TUESDAY. We'll have a much better handle on where the storm is going by THURSDAY, 2 days from now.

I'd hate to see some of you if you had to live in "Tornado Alley". You'd be freaking out with every daily T-Storm. Let's take a deep breath and relax. Let's act from reason and not from some fear creating bloggers. I'll have more later.

51 comments:

joe88 said...

hey bob whats viper say?

mlm4252 said...

Bob, you're the man. Thanks for the figurative slap in the face. (Thanks, I needed that!). You should charge psychological counseling fees for treatment of OCD Katrina vets!

Caveman said...

I noticed you are not mentioning your good ole trusted buddy VIPIR, what is he saying? hmmm All the models are in real close agreement on this one, including that GFDL one which was very good with FAY. Gustav weakend because over land right now and that was already forcasted to happen. Didn't I see you in Sams today buying water?

Tracy said...

Right on Caveman.... Hmmmm.... VIPIR.... think you have to have RADAR input for that so it will need to get pretty close to radar sites that can integrate into VIPIR before it can be used. However, if I am wrong, I would like to have an explanation of what model it uses and how it is initialized.

I think those of us who went through and lost everything in Katrina have a right to be a little alarmed. This is the first "real" threat we have had to contend with and we just want to be prepared.

Bob- Instead of attacking people, why not answer the actual meaningful questions that some people have been in asking in the last few days??

I recall a post recently where you chose to focus on caveman instead of answer a question by a faithful viewer when they asked whether there would be a weakness left by Fay that could draw Gustav towards us.

As a professional meteorologist I believe it is your responsibility to offer unbiased and meaninful/useful feedback to your viewers. Attacking other forecasters and their stations or people posting to your blog is just not helpful.

stormzz said...

Well...didn't we learn that we can't control WHERE it goes and our best bet is to ALWAYS be prepared and have a plan for anything? So, I agree Bob...what's the use of worrying over what we can't change....BUT....

After seeing the 5 day surface pressure and wind shear maps, I'm going home to check those supplies tonight. So much can change, but I'm thinking we are getting SOMETHING out of this one....

Bob, thanks for being the experienced voice of reason!

angel1095 said...

I think we all have something to be worried about, but I still have to agree with Bob. Let's take a breath and wait a day or two and see what happens. I see no point in getting all worked up about this right now.

Bonnie said...

FINALLY ~ the voice of reason speaks !

Bob, you really need to get on here a little more often, you know we waiting for your words while the nerves are going crazy with all the graphs.

Tara said...

Bob... aren't you the one that said the Saturday before Katrina that we didn't have anything to worry about???

Karrie said...

Yep, tornado alley is really crazy: Hiding under the house while you can hear sirens blaring all around you, waiting to hear something - either the sirens stop or the tornado come closer, holding on to your babies while you huddle them close and can hear the tv still playing overhead in your lving room. Meanwhile the phone is ringing and people who know you are trying to warn you of a tornado. All you can do is pray. There is no time to leave. No time to prepare. Only time to grab the babies and wait.

Valerie Weaver said...

Thanks for keeping Biloxi on your radar. We count on you to keep us real & appreciate your including us on your blog.

Blog Watcher said...

Sorry Tara,
But Bob didn't say that. You must have been watching someone else.
But it is good to see that you have now come here for your information.

Blog Watcher

stormzz said...

Tara, read your comment on Wunderground, and no, Bob didn't say that....in fact, Bob warned 2 days before Katrina, that Viper showed it coming here!

We need to be careful with spreading info! Also, Bob isn't saying it isn't coming here....he's saying that panic is not going to help when it's so far away and so much uncertainty exists in the forecast map!

Like I said, we always should be prepared, not panic!!

Dr. Max Mayfield was just on TV in Florida, and said that AS OF NOW, not certain at what the Subtropical ridge is doing, it could hit anywhere between Texas and Florida! That's a lot of geography...Bob's trying to warn us to not get crazy until we better know. The National Hurricane guys aren't sure...so should we go bonkers just yet?

Give the guy a break! :)

stormzz said...

Hey Bob....
The NHC forecast track has this fellow crossing over the tip of Haiti to the northwest and satellite appears to have the center to the south of the tip of Haiti.

Looks like it is going to move the forecast track further south? I know that we have to wait and see what the NHC does, but if it moves more to the south, wouldn't this put us in better shape, and Texas in a bit more of a situation, should it continue on this path?

Oh, and Bob...you rock! I don't think that you need to give any unbiased anything, lol! I think that you are doing JUST THAT, looking at the facts, and via experience, understanding that hurricanes can determine their own forecast as time goes on, and we need not worry just yet!

Again, always the voice of reason, and accurate, factual information!

Stormzz

Shawn said...

Thanks for the some sane advice. Some people ( who seem to be from Zacks board) should be ashamed of themselves for criticizing you for giving a professional opinion.

Anyway, John Gumm in a post on another board wrote about a mid level ridge possible steering this storm more west. In the storm2k forums, they were discussing this ridge also.

Most agree its too early to tell if the ridge will stay strong through 5 days, but I do note the models are trending slightly west today.

I really appreciate you taking time to post your thoughts on the storm and hope any Zack groupies will leave their pettiness off of this board.

Caveman said...

"in fact, Bob warned 2 days before Katrina, that Viper showed it coming here!" ANY body looking at all the different models and info for a storm just 48hrs out can do that. Bob is experienced he knows better than to make anykind of forecast until the storm is just 48hrs away, that way he is always correct. VIPIR just simply uses the same info that all the other models use and spits out some 3D stuff, the 3D stuff is actually the VIPIR the other stuff is not. Many TV stations have VIPIR it is not something FOX came up with etc. They rent it basically.

Many things can and will change but as of now MANY models have Gustav hitting New Orleanas as a cat 4/5

Todd & Karen said...

I agree with Tara. I specifically remember Bob showing Viper taking Katrina to the Pensacola area. Sure Bob's not worried, he went underground after Katrina.

Beans said...

Guys stop wasting energy on three years ago.. let's focus on now!

Caveman said...

Bob will not say what he REALLY thinks until the storm is just 48hrs out from landfall, last year he gave his thoughts on all those hurricanes that they would be weak etc. but nothing doing they became major storms some breaking the record books in different catagories... Bob is doing what he is suppose to do as of now.

stormzz said...

Wow...he said, she said...what a waste.

I quote Bob:
The forecast error at 5 days is nearly 300 miles! As I have said in the past

THAT my friends is sheer fact, undisputable. 3 years from now, I don't want to hear that Bob said it was going to Florida...he is saying what he ALWAYS does, the facts.

Now, to the armchair meteorologists....when you perfectly start predicting storms, and can get a city crazy with total certainty, let me know, because I've got one heck of a job at the WeatherGodCentral forcasting station. Until then, let's be reasonable, eh?

Any storm is dangerous and paths are ALWAYS unpredictable, even with the forcast tools and models available. I could list tons of storms that models simply got wrong, and the models are NOT in agreement now. WHY? They each take various factors into account, none perfectly! So, that's why we can't get into a frenzy just yet...A LOT can happen with this storm. Be prepared, stay tuned and then use good judgement. That's the point...NOT bashing Bob!

What the heck?

Stormzz

Caveman said...

"...he is saying what he ALWAYS does, the facts." I think that is the problem everyone is having he won't give his thoughts on the storm, just giving the facts which anyone can view at the many different sites. There are over 20 models but the main 3 which are the most accurate are pretty close to agreement, including the GFDL which is the highest accuracy rating of them all.

Caveman said...

Latest models runs are not helping us out much! They are becoming more in agreement with each other and pointing the finger at Louisiana. Unfortunetly many may once again get a hard lesson in flood insurance!

stormzz said...

Caveman, I won't tell you who I am, but I have years of experience in meteorology. I have my own gut feeling based on models, but MORESO, on surface maps, looking at troughs, shear....forecasting is a LOT more than telling us one's FEELINGS!

Bob has a responsibility to the public, to give them FACT and only FACT. While you may surf the many weather boards where we can all argue our theories and feelings, THIS is not the place for it. Many folks who watch Bob DO NOT have the luxury of surfing the internet. They have to rely on his forecast, which MUST be based on fact, and NOT his opinion!

Bob's responsibility is to follow the recommendations and guidance offered by the National Hurricane Center, and give us his interpretation of the data provided by them. He MAY feel that it's coming here....you MAY feel, and I MAY feel, but feelings don't matter when the public rely on fact. We all can see that the 5 day forecast has it pointing straight at us...but the savvy forecaster will be the one who looks at drops in pressures along with steering currents and guides you on WHICH way to leave when evacuating, and what plans to make. HE MUST be responsible to the public.

IF the storm comes here, that hard lesson in flood insurance, unfortunately is reality, as we all know. But trying to lead others into some sort of panic is haphazard on your part, and I feel that since this is BOB's board....he's being darned professional by allowing you to be here. I would have already banned you from mine....

Hope that those winds of wisdom, blew your hot air where it belongs...

Stormzz
...Right on, BOB!

Caveman said...

"Bob's responsibility is to follow the recommendations and guidance offered by the National Hurricane Center, and give us his interpretation of the data provided by them." uh what? Are we talking about the same Bob?

Of course I know who you are, let's just say uncle sam writes your pay check.

So what is your forecast or your gut feeling for this storm?

I havn't said anything that has not been said by the experts already.

stormzz said...

Caveman...

Please note that as of 8pm, your GFDL has moved it's track much more westwardly, aiming for the Texas/LA border in 5 days....

The NHC has ALSO moved it's track a bit more Westward....

Want my opinion? I think you're gonna see the track move more westward AGAIN before we're done, and possibly AGAIN more eastward in the end. But see, what I think doesn't matter when we're looking at HUNDREDS of miles of uncertainty at this point in time.

I BET YOU that Bob gives more and more accurate info 48 hours before...and since he's not giving A GUESS to those who rely upon his FACTS, that makes him a responsible forecaster.

Hey, did Bob buy water the other day? I did...and I hope that everyone is stocked up this time of year!

Uncertainty reigns supreme with hurricanes....there are no strong steering currents right now, and the high building over Florida is not so strong as to guarantee where this thing goes.

So, watch the ever changing forecast....glad you care what Bob has to say! Stay tuned....:)

Stormzz

Bourbon St. Blues said...

It will be interesting to see the next set of models...I have seen where most tracks have this going more west than northwest...which may be good since current models have it in the middle of the gulf making a B-line for our state.

BSB

Bourbon St. Blues said...

It will be interesting to see the next set of models...I have seen where most tracks have this going more west than northwest...which may be good since current models have it in the middle of the gulf making a B-line for our state.

Of course only one track matters and thats the one it takes.

BSB

stormzz said...

Bourbon Street Blues said:

"Of course only one track matters and thats the one it takes."

LOL! How true....
A lot of things are making me breathe a bit easier tonight, but it's a LONG time off...two days before we really know!

Well said, BSB! LOL!!!!!!!!!

stormzz said...

By the way, Caveman...

You know who I am, with as much certainty as you know where Gustav is going, lol!

I'm not paid by Uncle Sam to forecast weather. ...but I am, well paid!

ha ha....

Stormzz ma name, and weather facts are ma game....
:)
I'll be watching Bob tonight! :)

Caveman said...

"I BET YOU that Bob gives more and more accurate info 48 hours before.." Well, duh him and everyone else will make more accurate forecast when the storm is only 48hrs out. geeze whizz Of course the storm will make shifts to the west, name a storm in the past which was in the current area of Gustav that has not...

What is your GS pay level?

stormzz said...

Caveman, since you get your info from Wunderground....

Look at the historical maps...a bunch went toward Texas and Mexico, and a bunch went toward Florida.

Um....I think about half of them did NOT go to the west!

THIS ONE is still uncertain!
Oh, and if you thought it was going to the west, why the statements of panic and such?

How about this...let's wait and see where he goes. Get ready, be informed, and STOP GUESSING!

Thursday the steering forces will be MUCH more settled....and we will know a LOT more. Heck, I'd even guess then...;)

I mean, it's great that we can have opinions here...but I think it's irresponsible to ACT as a forecaster and get folks in a panic...when the facts do not tell us anything more than we need to be informed and cautious. That's all we know with certainty now.

As BSB said ....the only track that matters is the one it takes!

Caveman, if you think that Bob's so awful....you know, you can leave and tell Dr. Jeff Masters how to run his blog and how to forecast weather!...I'm pretty sure that Bob isn't going to turn his job over to you just yet...

As I said....stay tuned to get the facts!

Tracy said...

yes it is great to have opinions and have such a free forum to express them. However, there is one thing I would ask of Bob.... If he is as good as he says then he does not need to call that to anyone's attention by badmouthing the competition (ie. the other channels in New Orleans). Trying to make yourself look good by calling attention to the flaws of others backfires and hurts your credibility.

Ray said...

All I know is, if you wait until New Orleans is in the 3-day cone to make lodging arrangements elsewhere, you're going to have a REALLY long evac drive to get to the La Quinta in St. Louis.

Don't panic, but don't sit on your ass doing nothing either. If it does come this way you don't want to wake up Saturday morning with no destination, no cash, and an empty tank of gas in your car. You can't wait for it to be a sure thing to make preparations.

Hopefully I'll be at Krewe of Oak on Saturday night. But if we're unlucky, at least I know where I'll be outside the city, and I know how I'm getting there and what I have to do before I leave.

Caveman said...

All I know is that Bob needs to hurry up and start another blog because getting tired of scrolling down so far to read comments, I think a record has been set for comments. When Gustav does hit as a major hurricane I think Bob will call on the NHC to downgrade it to a Tropical Storm even though the winds will be 125+ so everyone won't have their hurricane deductibles kick in. Prob will too late for hotel bookings in another 24hrs. all will be filled!

Todd & Karen said...

I just spent two hours surfing the net to find two rooms in Meridian. There is not much out there, so if you need a room, ya better do it now.

Blog Watcher said...

Funny, I just spent 30 seconds online and found a whole bunch of rooms available in Jackson. One for as low as $45.

Please stop the hype.

Blog Watcher

Catfish said...

Hey Bob- Keep up the good work. Your the only person to watch for hurricanes- thanks

Patsy said...

First off, I do not like being referred to as a child. I am an adult who happens to take these matters very seriously. Secondly, maybe we won't all die, but many did die almost 3 years ago to the day. While you may have forgotten about that, sir I can assure you that I have not. Governor Jindal said do not panic, but take this time to get prepared. Head to the store now to stock up on enough supplies to sustain yourself for atleast 72 hours. Don't wait until the weekend to know where the storm is going. Mr Breck, not 5 minutes later, basically told everyone don't listen to him. Don't go ravaging the stores for stuff. It's just too soon. Your comments on this blog have been insensitive to say the least and your advice to the audience borders on negligent. I guess it's time for us "children" to move on.

weather8fan said...

Mr. Breck,

I'm not sure why you choose to speak down to your fans and supporters by calling them "children", but I can say that I was here for Katrina in large part because of being misled by some of our local weather people. I'm not a very well educated person but I do have feelings and pride myself in trying to be accepting of many peoples and their feelings.

Why must you demean New Orleans folks like this?

Have we not been through enough ?

Todd & Karen said...

Blog Watcher...BS. But if you did find something for $45, enjoy the crabs! Ouch! I'm actually traeling to Jackson tomorrow for business, which I do every week and I have never seen a rate of less than $150 at Hiltons, Marriotts, Cabots, Sleep Inn, or anyhting else.

Caveman said...

Patsy/weatherfan8 - In Bob's defense I believe he was talking to those that had been posting, did not see any posts from you two so pull your underwear out and get a grip. gezz whizz

blogwatcher - hourly rate motels don't count!

Blog Watcher said...

Todd and Karen,
If you must stay at a Hilton, then you will have to pay for it.
The Super 8 in Canton has rooms for $50 starting on Saturday night. The Sleep Inn is $77.50. The Hilton (North Jackson) is $125. Just go to Expedia.com, it's really not that hard.

I'm not making this stuff up.

Blog Watcher

wewatchbreck said...

Thanks Bob!
So glad for the "get a grip" to the ones acting like children. I guess they are complaining on Bob's Blog because they know it is the largest audience for weather in New Orleans!!! Can't wait to read your blog on Gustav. We are chillin' until you say otherwise.

Anissa said...

OH MY GOSH!!!! This has completely gotten off the subject and has become an elementary kid's arguement!!! The fact is, we all know that these storms can change directions several times before hitting land. Especially considering it's still 5 days before the storm is even in the center of the Gulf! If you don't like what Bob has to say....then stay off his website and quite trying to cause problems. Those of us that trust him will keep watching him. He has always given his GUT feeling---and 9/10 times, it's been right! He's not God...yes, he may make a mistake or two but he is always there for us. So, since you are acting like a couple of children, then use the old saying "if you can't say something nice, than KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!"
Bob, thanks for the wonderful job you do-----keep on doing it!

Shawn said...

Its no secret where this trash is coming from. Maybe at your next picnic we can discuss it. Its really counter productive.

This board is a valuable resource. Please don't disrupt it. Shouldn't you be changing alert levels or something?

El Rubio said...

Some of you deserve to be called children and you're succumbing to the hype of a storm that is over 1200 miles away. There's one thing for certain, the 5 day track is almost ALWAYS wrong.
You should be prepared and if that includes reserving a hotel room before a storm is even in the Gulf then go ahead and do it if it makes you feel better. One question I have about that is when do you make reservations for at this far out? Is it going to hit on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday? You could end up getting a room somewhere on the wrong day or even somewhere that gets it worse than us.
I agree with the reasonable voices on this blog suggesting to wait until the steering elements are more defined and the storm's path can be better forecast.

the mesiah said...

vipir takes it where???? they are not moving the track cause apparently that's where it is going..watch out children dont listen to the gov advisors, dont listen to the hurricane center listen to bob...No One is saying bob board up your windows and run for your life we are just saying get prepared good lord children get it together

the mesiah said...

nola.com worrying 2

Berminger said...

Bob
The last time you intervened with Govt. recommendations was prior to Katrina. When you told the general public not to leave as of yet because the traffic was too bad after an evacuation notice was given was irresponsible and quite frankly not your job. Your job is to report weather conditions current and future, not to confuse the public with your opinions.

max said...

I was there. Not only did Bob accurately predict the path of Katrina before it was a detectable as a low pressure zone, but he warned us about 9-11, the housing bubble burst and Gigli months before any of those things happened as well. That's what astrologers like Bob do - see into the future - so don't give him more kudos than he deserves. It's his job.

Hammer said...

Back off Bob!

If you have a problem with Bob's past comments, go somewhere else. This is not the appropriate place to blast him.

In my book he is the ONLY local guy I pay any attention to.

Cajunboi~n~dallas said...

ok... i wasn't going to post but i just have to!

I don't know about you, But I have been through this time and time again, and If I remember right how many people were trapped on the highways trying to leave because everybody listened to "let's not panic we still don't know where it's going to go" at three days out... Three days out is not enough time to get your crap together and make reservations and beat the traffic and get out of town! I have very close friends who slept in their car in Memphis because there were no rooms at two days away... It took me personally and members of my family 14 hours to get to Houston...

I think it's irresponsible to tell the loyal people that listen to you not to listen to the Governor. When the government tries to get ignorant people to prepare and they don't then the Government is blamed for not having the proper response to a natural disaster. I think we need to be smart enough to see whats going on, be smart, and take appropriate actions and not even have to wait for the governor to tell us when and how.

5 days away... hum... now it's really only four days... After what we've been through, I'm not taking any chances... I am SO not in a panic but I am not stupid nor a "child" either. I AM going to make some thoughtful and WISE decisions! And Do NOT think I am bashing,("Children" Get a grip...) I am just stating MY opinion... Thanks, Bob! I am going to watch the Weather Channel Now...