Summer-like 2 More Days, New Podcast Tomorrow, Turn out The Lights!

 Maybe it was my 2nd glass of chardonnay last night, but did anyone see any weathercaster at 10 PM talk about the dense fog we had this morning?  Just me, but I was shocked to see how dense and widespread it was.  NWS finally put out a dense Fog Advisory after the fact and many morning commuters had to deal with slow travel conditions. As the fog started to lift, it was a pretty view from Copeland Tower.

Expect more of the same for Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  In fact, the next 2-3 days will not change much, meaning near record warmth with very slim rain chances.  That won't change until the upper pattern changes and that happens for this weekend.

The current upper high over the Southeast will shift east of Florida with the current trough over the Rockies redeveloping over the eastern states.  Note it's not a deep trough, but it should be enough to bring us a real cold front.  Right now, there is no front near us.

The summer warmth extends up to St. Louis, but look at the chill over the western states.  Some of that chill will be here for Friday night into Saturday.

WPC positions the front just to our NW for Friday morning and we'll really start to feel it for Friday night into Saturday.  It won't last but a day or two, but it will be a welcomed change.

You can see the return flow off the Gulf rotating around the surface high over us.

Even though it will be too warm, I'm going fishing with Valerie & Captain Hylton tomorrow & Thursday. I will have a new podcast on Wednesday, but you have to be a subscriber to view it.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  It will feature "turn out the lights, the party is over" on this hurricane season.  FOX Weather was talking about that today.

They were a little wishy-washy on saying it's over, but for the northern Gulf, I'm saying it is.  They also compared the Google Deep Mind AI model to what the actual track for Isaias turned out to be.  It was amazingly correct.

The bottom view is the GFS AI (Not the GDM) that does try to form a system off Florida's west coast on Thursday Oct. 29th.  I'm thinking there still might be 2-3 more named storms, but because of the coming fronts along with wind shear, out tropical threats should be over.  Come join the fun on my next podcast for tomorrow.  Stay tuned & I'll post my fish stories on Friday.

Time to Turn Out The Lights, Strong Cold Front Coming

 Every October, as a tongue in cheek way to close out the Hurricane Season, I've used the late "Dandy Don Meredith's" singing "turn out the lights, the party's over" as a way to signal our hurricane threat is over.  Years ago, once we reached early October, I brought the fictional "Fat Lady" in to sing.  However, in this current warming cycle, we had several (Juan, Zeta) Hurricanes cross the Louisiana coast after Oct. 15th.  I changed/delayed the Fat Lady singing until after I was sure the real tropical threat was over for us. In this super El Nino year, I am waiting for the season's first real cold front to arrive.  Well, wait no longer Gang as we'll need sweaters and jackets for Friday night into this weekend!  Why?  Look at the pattern shift coming.  On top is the current with the upper trough over the West Coast.

You can see how the pattern flips from the West Coast trough (middle view) to an East Coast trough by this Friday.  That will allow the coldest air of the season to flow south out of Canada. Most of Canada is in the 30s & 40s.

It's been cold enough for a blanket of snow to cover many parts of the Rockies.  That cold air will take several days to reach us and will modify as it moves over areas that will be in the 80s & 90s for the next several days.  I have the Fat Lady singing this Wednesday on my podcast as we'll review Don Meredith's funny singing and the reasons why we don't need to worry about hurricanes here until sometime next summer. To hear & see my podcasts, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  For the next 3-4 days, we'll be flirting with near record heat.

The real front is still way to our north.  Note the huge temperature drop behind the front.

As high pressure over us shifts to our east, the Gulf muggies will return.  You'll notice a different feel to our air by Wednesday as 70+ dewpoints return.

The satellite shows the Gulf quiet except for those low level clouds surging out of the western Gulf.

There is nothing to track in the Gulf, Caribbean & most of the Atlantic.  However, NHC is highlighting an area off of Africa.

The satellite view has the exposed center left of all the T-Storms as wind shear remains strong.  C'mon guys, give it up.  Don't waste anymore names over the next 6 weeks.  There is a strong Hurricane west of Puerto Vallarta that will recurve and bring rains to the desert SW.

For us, it's all about a real cold front coming chasing the last lingering feelings of summer.

Finally, some tidbits from FOX Weather.  The Pacific "ACE" (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) has broken the all time record with 6+ weeks to go.

The Pacific was supposed to be active in this Super El Nino year, but nearly 3X is kind of crazy.  A review of Isaias found some surprising results.

Typically, the worse side of any storm is to the right/east.

That was correct for rainfall and highest storm surges.  However, the strongest wind reports occurred west of the center.

I've read several reasons for this, including Isaias' circulation entraining drier air aloft on its western side bringing down the strongest winds there.  I'll leave that up to the researchers to study and figure out.  Clearly, the worse damages were from Navarre Beach eastward with Pensacola westward receiving much less impacts.  It's time to sing, "Turn out the lights, the party is over"...until next year.   Even though I hate cold weather, bring on those fronts!  Stay tuned!