Boundaries Still Persists, Easter Looks Wet, Cooler Next Week, Podcast Tomorrow

Those of you who have joined my podcast and are wondering where it is.  Haven't done one in two weeks. Frankly, there has been so little to talk about.  I will do one tonight that will be available tomorrow.  If you want to see it, go to bobbreck.com to sign up and join.  I'm still trying to figure out why we have these weak upper boundaries that enhance T-Storms in some areas.  We all have deep tropical moisture over us, but not everybody is getting wet.

NWS has broad-brushed a large area of 70%+ coverage, but radar doesn't show that over SE LA/MS.  We have more of a summer-like pattern where weak upper disturbances enhance our daily storms.  But for the life of me, I can't figure out where these boundaries are forming or going.  That makes for a difficult forecast challenge.  So let me show you what I do know.  The main storm track remains far to our north.  One disturbance is coming out of Colorado with another following along the West Coast.

SPC's severe weather outlook confirms their thinking that this pattern will last the next 2-3 days.  The top graphic is today, followed by Thursday and Friday.

Clearly, the potential for severe storms is not around us.  However, models are bringing a cold front into Louisiana for Easter Sunday.  It will be a slow mover with the greatest threat being some heavy rainfall (2-4").  Timing will be critical as it is too soon to narrow down which part of the day goes in the dumper.

So our confidence is high that Sunday will have the better rain chances.  But what about the next 2-3 days? We have no fronts around.

Dew points (bottom graphic) are 60+ all the way up to Louisville.  Couple in temps. 80+ and you will see some daytime heating storms perk up.  IF the cold front reaches us late Sunday, cooler and drier air returns for Monday-Wednesday.  

March ended as the 2nd warmest nationwide.  April will see more cold fronts coming before the heat of summer sets in.  Podcast coming tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Boundary Has Weakened, Fewer Storms Wed-Thursday, Cold Front Easter Sunday

 The surface boundary that has enhanced our shower activity for the past 2 days appears to be weakening/dissipating.  That should mean our shower coverage might be less than today's 50-60%.  Fewer storms should allow us to reach the low to mid 80s the next several days.

The storms over land are the result of daytime heating, while the cluster off the mouth of the river is the remains of that boundary.

The FOX 8 extended indicates 40% chance of rain the next 4 days.  I'm thinking Wednesday & Thursday will see fewer showers.  Friday might see an increase as an upper low over Mexico lifts to the NE.

With the upper flow over the nation from the SW, no cold fronts can reach us.  Models are showing a moderate front coming for Easter Sunday, but it's too soon to determine exact timing.

The upper energy with Sunday's storms will be well to our north and that should mean any severe threat here will be slim to none.  The main concern might be heavy rains as this will be a slow moving front.

Bottom line, after 2-3 weeks of dry weather, rain chances have returned. You need to keep some rain gear handy.  Let's see if my thinking is correct for less shower coverage (20%) for Wednesday & Thursday.  Otherwise, we're beginning to feel and look more like summer time.  Stay tuned!