September Ends Without Hurricane, Late Week Gulf Moisture Brings Flood Potential

 As we say goodbye to, historically, the most active month of hurricane season, we enter October with no names in the Atlantic.  NHC has downgraded both Fay & Hanna to remnant lows.  In the short term 7-10 days, no tropical activity is likely due to the strong upper winds caused by the Super El Nino in the Pacific.  You can see those upper winds on the visible satellite loop.

 

With an upper low over the Gulf, there can be no tropical development.  This will be the first September since 1994 that didn't have a September Hurricane.

However, that same year had two hurricanes form in November (red circles).  Note how neither affected the Gulf.  With the MJO Still in 8 going into 1, we have  about another week in the favorable (rising air) phase for something to develop.  

 

Once the MJO gets into phases 2 & 3, our tropical season should be over here.  FOX Weather is still hinting at the Central American Gyre (CAG) kicking off something in the southern Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.

The bottom view is the Euro tropical development potential highlighting the greatest threat staying in the Pacific, but does have a smaller bullseye in the southern Gulf.

So even though it appears any tropical threat coming in early October stays down over the Gulf, I want to see some real cold fronts come through before I ask the "Fat Lady" to turn out the lights on this hurricane season.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on my thoughts regarding the rest of this season.  To hear and see me, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The only threat in the short term will be the flood potential caused by returning gulf moisture interacting with several cold fronts.

The upper trough crossing the Rockies will bring down a cold front close to us.  These slow moving Fall fronts often can cause several days of heavy rains.

WPC has backed off the the heaviest rains over us, shifting the bullseye south of the MS/AL/FL coasts.

Let's hope that trend continues and the predicted wet weekend won't be so wet.  Stay tuned!

So Why Wasn't It Named? Tropical Surge Here Late Week, GFS Does It Again

While I was up in Kentucky for Grandparents' Day last week, a massive Nor'easter stalled off of Long Island and made for a miserable weekend for millions.  I've seen many videos of the winds and flooding due to 8+ inches of rain coupled with coastal high tides.  Many on social media are wondering why NHC did not give this system a name when it was impacting so many?  Clearly, it has a burst of T-Storms around its center.  We start with where it is today and what it looked like on Saturday.

At the very least, it was briefly "sub-tropical" as the east & south sides were over the warmer waters from the Gulf Stream.  So why wasn't this given a name since it impacted so many?  Messaging?  Not wanting to scare folks?   I've heard the damage estimate is in the neighborhood of $1-2 BILLION.  Here's my issue.  Look at 3 named storms and their locations.

Hanna is up far north, Fay is below it with Gonzalo way out to the east.  All named, but no land impacts.  I get it that the Nor'easter wasn't truly tropical, but the impacts were similar to a Hurricane.  Bryan Norcross says the U.S. should have a system in place that names all impacting storms that are not truly tropical.  The discussions will continue.  As we leave September and head into October, our focus shifts to the Gulf & NW Caribbean where we have a large area of disturbed weather.

Currently, the Gulf has an upper low that extends down into the NW Caribbean, creating a hostile environment for any tropical development.  But conditions become more complicated later this week as tropical moisture from Polo shifts eastward along with an upper trough over the Rockies.

That will kick out the current upper low over the Gulf and allow a surge of moisture that could cause some flood issues along the northern Gulf for this weekend.  Here's what the WPC's rainfall forecast calls for the next 7 days.

If you look closely, the amounts across SE LA/MS are 4-8"+.  As the upper trough with Polo shifts to the east, it will bring a cold front close that will be the forcing trigger for the heavy rains. We begin with the forecast valid for Friday.

It appears the first front runs out of support and waits for a second front for early next week.

What I'll be watching for is any development down over the Gulf once the front pushes offshore.  No model does that with these fronts.  However, the GFS and the GFS AI have a storm in the Gulf for the following week.  The GFS AI is on top, followed by the GFS valid out two weeks away.

Let's remember, this is the GFS that is rarely correct beyond several days.  Hurricane Opel did development in the same location back in October 1995 and ended up over Pensacola.  I'm pretty certain we'll see cold fronts before the 15th that should steer anything that might form and turn it to the east well south of the LA/MS/AL coasts.  I will hold off on the "Fat Lady" singing until after October 10th.

The short term looks dry for this week.  However, FOX 8 has a First Alert for Saturday into Monday for potential flooding rainfall.  We have plenty of time to watch how the approaching frontal boundaries interact with all the Gulf moisture.  My podcast this week will focus on what I think might happen.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up as a subscriber.  Stay tuned!