Models Slow Weekend System, Podcast Coming This PM

Since it's parade time and most folks are focused on timing and the rain threat, I've decided to do a podcast this afternoon, updating the latest thinking.  You will not be able to see or hear me unless you are a subscriber.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Don't wait until hurricane season to hear "What does Bob think?"  For now, let's review the setup.  There is a deep complex trough along the West Coast with two distinct centers.

 

This morning's model runs have slowed down this system, changing the arrival time of the main rain threat.  Here's what Zack had this morning.

Bruce indicated last night that the timing would be after Endymion was over, and it appears that is supported by the latest model runs.  They lower the rain threat on Saturday's parades but increase the threat for Sunday's parades.  Here's the timing.

So the biggest parades (Iris & Endymion) on Saturday look mostly dry.  I'd have some rain gear handy just in case we see a stray shower.  I grabbed these graphics from The Weather Channel this morning. They keep the area for any severe storms on Saturday to our west.

What concerns me is the models slow down and hint at a southern surface low slowing down for Sunday.  That could linger some showers for Sunday's daytime parades, but Bacchus should be fine.  One thing we do know is that temperatures will remain mild.

Timing is everything, and I'll go into what could go wrong with the forecast on my podcast later this afternoon.  Go sign up to watch it.  Stay tuned!

Parade Weather, Model Forecasts, So What Could Go Wrong?

Watching all the local weathercasters, you'll see them show you the two main computer model forecasts, which are in basic agreement regarding our next rain threat.  Both the GFS & European have the main rain/storm threat coming after midnight Saturday night, which would be great news for all the parades on Saturday & Sunday, since the bad weather would come between Saturday midnight and 7 AM Sunday.

The Euro is slightly faster, with the GFS being the slower model.  I like the graphic Nicondra used showing which parades have the higher/lower rain chances based on today's model runs.

What I don't like is that nobody any longer tells you the why of the forecast and what might go wrong.  Very few use a surface map, and very few use satellite loops to story tell.  Nope, it's all about showing the models.  It's like every station's consultant preaches the same message.  The viewers don't care why the forecast, just the what's the forecast. And now they even have to tell us how to dress, like we're too stupid to know!  Geez, let me explain MY thinking as to why the models might be right regarding Saturday's timing of the rain/storms.  It begins off the West Coast.

The two upper lows off of California will unite and head across the desert SW.  These disturbances will be very progressive (moving) BECAUSE there is a "kicker" behind them over the Gulf of Alaska that will kick/force this energy to keep moving.  That is why the models bring the storms into Louisiana late Saturday into Sunday.

If you're riding or planning to attend any of the parades leading into Mardi Gras, here's what we do know.  Monday & Tuesday will be rain-free.  Saturday's early parades look rain-free, as do Sunday's parades.  RIGHT NOW, Endymion also looks mostly dry.  However, what if the western disturbance moves more quickly than the model forecasts?  Then Saturday's parades could have issues.  Is the forecast "written in stone"?  No way.  We're still 3 days away.  The TREND looks good, but wait until we get closer to decide IF you'll need the rain gear.  Here's the current setup.

We have a weak front that will dissipate near us, so don't expect any real cold coming through Fat Tuesday.

We have seen some showers around today as highs topped 80 in many spots, bubbling up a couple of downpours.

We stay warm for at least the next 7 days.  So go watch the local weathercasters and see who shows you more than just the models.  Don't we want to know what THEY think (not just the model) and why? Maybe I'm wrong, and the consultants are right?  I think not.  Stay tuned!