Johns

Thursday, August 18, 2022

Rain Returns, Plus a new Invest To Follow...

Everyone said we'd see more clouds & showers today as a weak frontal boundary sags along the northern Gulf Coast.  This has resulted in temps being less hot and that should be the case for several days.  The boundary is expected to linger into the weekend keeping us in above normal/average clouds and showers. The real cold air is staying far to our north, but any relief in August is welcomed.






Texas is finally getting in on the rain and that means relief from the summer long heat wave.  Houston is one of the exceptions as they're still near 100.




The North Shore received the heaviest rainfall, but my house had a quick 1/3 of an inch. We could use a lot more and tomorrow into Saturday should proved us several more opportunities for soaking rains.


If this frontal boundary remains stalled into next week, we could see some tropical moisture surge over the western Gulf into Texas and then Louisiana.  That's why our rain chances increase again next week.





The MDE out in the Atlantic remains dead with the Caribbean and Gulf also quiet.  The only system with potential is over the Yucatan and it is now invest 99 L.




Once over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, it could begin to get better organized and a Recon plane is scheduled to investigate.  Today's GFS does NOT have any disturbance in the Gulf for August 29th.  All signs point to the tropical switch to flip after August 20th.  Stay tuned!


Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Get Ready For The Tropical Switch To Flip...

TWC (The Weather Channel) had an interesting graphic showing  the 2022 Hurricane Season has moved into the 4th spot for longest stretches between named storms.  A look back at history tells me that is a meaningless statistic as the Hurricane activity can really ramp up after August 15th.   The MJO is moving into the favorable (rising air) phase over our part of the world and more tropical waves are coming off of Africa as the Saharan Dust layer diminishes.  This is what USUALLY happens at this time of the year.








The area NHC is following is a tropical wave interacting with an upper low over the Bay of Campeche.  As the upper low pulls westward, shear should lower providing the slight (30%) potential for development.  RIGHT NOW, models don't explode this feature, but do bring much needed rain into must of Texas.  It should have no impacts on us.





The big local news is a weak frontal boundary will sag near us late Thursday into the weekend.  This should bring us some relief from the August heat.    




Showers are just beginning to fire today.  Look for coverage to be much higher Thursday PM into Saturday.  My yard and garden need a good soaking plus it'll be less hot.   Finally...


 The GFS model has this feature off the mouth of the River for Sunday morning August 28th.  Not gonna get too excited/nervous yet as that is 10+ days out.  But we all know what hurricane anniversaries  are on August 29th (Katrina, Ida) .  In fact, some of you "old-timers" like me remember today is the anniversary of Hurricane Camille making landfall back in 1969.   Stay tuned!