Parade Weather Timing Looks Great, Storms Overnight, Severe Threat?

 On my podcast Thursday evening, I downplayed the possible severe threat coming late tonight and explained why.  All day yesterday and again this morning, local weathercasters were pushing the severe weather coming for tonight.   The local NWS office & even SPC (Storm Prediction Center) indicates such a threat as they have most of Louisiana under a level 2 risk tonight.

However, I don't feel like the current set up will bring severe storms HERE.  The timing would be great for all parades as the rain comes over night. But let me explain the WHY of my thinking.  We have a well defined upper trough that will drag a cold front into an increasingly moist air mass coming out of the Gulf.  But note, the trough is "positively (leaning forward) tilted".

Unlike a negatively tilted trough, a positively tilted trough USUALLY doesn't have the huge split in the jet stream that enhances upward motion.  That shows up in the Water Vapor images.

There is a slight split in the upper flow (red line), but that is mainly to our north.  WPC (Weather Prediction Center) confirms where the heaviest rains should fall.

In addition, I just feel the lack of any real cold air behind the cold front is a signal that any severe storms will be limited HERE. Denver is 50 degrees at 1 PM.

Is the severe threat zero?  Of course not, but to keep crying wolf day after day only increase anxiety when I don't feel the threat is very high.  Here's the timing of the "squall line" based on this morning's model run from Hannah Gard.

I guess because I'm old (and more experienced!), I've seen time after time where the line of strong storms weakens as it approaches us.  It arrives at a time of zero heating making instability very limited.  Will we have gusty winds tonight & tomorrow?  Absolutely!  I'm taking my rain slicker to Endymion tonight just in a some stray showers develop.  But it appears the timing of the rain will NOT affect any of the parades tonight or Sunday.  Monday & Tuesday look great!

I will have my FOX 8 weather app ready in case any showers develop this evening.  Keep your phone by your bed over night in case any warnings are issued.  The greater risk will occur between 2-4 AM for most of us and we'll probably sleep through it all.  Remember to use sun screen for the day parades as 6-8 hours in the sun can give you quite a burn.  Stay safe, be happy and stay tuned!

Models Slow Weekend System, Podcast Coming This PM

Since it's parade time and most folks are focused on timing and the rain threat, I've decided to do a podcast this afternoon, updating the latest thinking.  You will not be able to see or hear me unless you are a subscriber.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Don't wait until hurricane season to hear "What does Bob think?"  For now, let's review the setup.  There is a deep complex trough along the West Coast with two distinct centers.

 

This morning's model runs have slowed down this system, changing the arrival time of the main rain threat.  Here's what Zack had this morning.

Bruce indicated last night that the timing would be after Endymion was over, and it appears that is supported by the latest model runs.  They lower the rain threat on Saturday's parades but increase the threat for Sunday's parades.  Here's the timing.

So the biggest parades (Iris & Endymion) on Saturday look mostly dry.  I'd have some rain gear handy just in case we see a stray shower.  I grabbed these graphics from The Weather Channel this morning. They keep the area for any severe storms on Saturday to our west.

What concerns me is the models slow down and hint at a southern surface low slowing down for Sunday.  That could linger some showers for Sunday's daytime parades, but Bacchus should be fine.  One thing we do know is that temperatures will remain mild.

Timing is everything, and I'll go into what could go wrong with the forecast on my podcast later this afternoon.  Go sign up to watch it.  Stay tuned!