Warm, Mostly Dry JazzFest Weekend, Orange Beach So Nice

That really good feeling air has left us as dew points are back to 60+.  However, it doesn't feel awful yet since highs are only in the low 80s.  The brisk easterly winds make it feel rather comfy out.  We have two big functions this weekend, with the PGA Zurich golf classic and the first weekend of JazzFest.  What I'm seeing is the lack of any cold front blowing through, so the only trigger for showers will be daytime heating.  I'm not saying rain chances are zero, but any showers should be spotty & brief.  Best chances for rain arrive late Saturday evening, but even then, I'm not convinced the predicted 60% will happen.  That might be a tad too aggressive, and here's why.

The major upper trough is over the Rockies and off the West Coast.  We have mainly a zonal (west to east) flow over us with several weak disturbances moving through.  There is no cold frontal boundary right now to trigger storms.

That is why I'm leaning toward a mostly dry forecast into the weekend.  That could change IF a front forms and heads our way.

All in all, prepare for a summer-like weekend with the usual hats & sunscreen precautions.  I'm enjoying the nearly deserted beaches at Orange Beach with my Fiancée Valerie. Spring breakers are gone, and the kids are still in school.  It's a perfect time to be at the beach for us seniors!

The view is awesome & I found this little ditty while walking the beach.  Some Dad making a sand castle with his child.  Priceless!  Stay tuned!

Oh What A Feeling! Quiet Week Ahead, JazzFest 1st Weekend Wet?

Back in 1983, the late Irene Cara co-wrote & sang a song for Flashdance, which became a huge hit.  Going outside today (if you're dressed for it), "Oh what a feeling" it is to feel the cooler and much drier air. It won't last very long, but the break from our early Spring warmth is refreshing.

Gone from yesterday's near 70 dew points are DPs in the 40s, which feel great.  In a few weeks, we'll only dream of this kind of feel.  However, the core of the cold is already retreating as the higher sun angle quickly modifies this cold air mass.

You can see temps in Kansas back into the mid 70s at 1 pm.  As the upper ridge shifts our way this week, we'll see highs warm back to 80+. A weak upper disturbance will spray some clouds back over us for Tuesday & Wednesday, but any rain should stay offshore.

As you can see, the next real rain chances arrive for next weekend, the 1st week of JazzFest.  Much of that will depend on a huge storm off of California.

It's way too soon to know if the weekend activities will be affected, but RIGHT NOW, it appears our dry spell might be coming to an end.  Bad timing!  As usual, we'll know more as we get closer to next weekend.  Stay tuned!