Nor'easter Coming, Tropics Show Some Life, Quiet Here.

With a week left in September, models are indicating that we will have no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  That doesn't mean there will not be an impact-type storm.  NWS is hyping a winter-like Nor'easter that will form on Friday and slowly move up the East Coast, resulting in widespread coastal erosion, high surf, hurricane-like wind gusts, and heavy rainfall.  It is in the formative stage today, but should come together overnight into Friday.

By Saturday morning, NWS has a deep low south of Cape Cod.  The impacts locally will be to drive the deep tropical moisture away from us.

If this system brings up the tropical moisture into it, even though NHC won't classify it as a hurricane, it could be the strongest system so far this season.  Let's see if NHC doesn't start talking about this disturbance on their TWO s (Tropical Weather Outlook) tonight or tomorrow.

All they are talking about today is the regeneration of Fay back to a Tropical Storm and the possible formation of Gonzalo off of Africa. Could we have another Super Storm Sandy type storm develop this weekend off the East Coast?  Could happen. Locally, the Gulf is quiet.

FOX Weather had this graphic yesterday that I thought was interesting.  It applies only to Super El Nino years like we are having this year.  I'm getting more encouraged that any tropical threats to the northern Gulf are over for this year. Our focus now turns to fronts and cooler air coming.

 

The summer heat dome has been crushed and 60s & 70s have taken over the country.  We won't see any real cooling until next week.

Finally, most of the tropical action is in the Pacific.

Hawaii could be threatened by another hurricane while Polo remains a major Cat.4.

Fortunately, Polo is predicted to turn away from the Mexican coast.  Enjoy the next few days of drier weather.  Stay tuned!

Polo Explodes To Cat. 5, Powerful Nor'Easter Will Dry Us Out

 As has been the case this whole hurricane season, the Pacific remains very active while the Atlantic struggles to find any tropical systems.  Computer models are all indicating a powerful winter-like nor'easter will develop for Friday through Sunday bringing down drier (lower humidity) air to the Gulf South.  More on that in a bit.  Let's begin with Cat. 5 (165 mph) Hurricane Polo that sprang to life yesterday and went from a Tropical storm to a Cat. 5 hurricane in 12 hours (Rapid Intensification).  I begin with the early morning daylight views that showed the "stadium effect".

Polo is a totally symmetric storm with his circulation not disrupted by any wind shear.  Fortunately, the NHC track keeps the core of the storm off the Mexican coast.

I believe Polo's winds (165 mph) are higher than Lala's (160 mph) making him the strongest storm in the EPAC so far.  Some of his moisture is heading towards the desert Southwest where flood warnings will be up for several days. We are between that tropical moisture to the west and more tropical moisture to our east as that lingering Heat Dome hangs on.

The moisture to our east is heading into a developing east coast low that will explode later this week as  an upper disturbance over the Midwest deepens the upper East Coast Trough.

All ingredients are in place for a classic winter-like Nor'Easter that will bring major impacts to the folks in the Northeast.  Here's the set up.

All these graphics are from FOX Weather where they shifted their focus away from something developing down in the Caribbean or Gulf yesterday to something that all models develop for Friday through Sunday.  We will be on the dry side of this system so we should have a great stretch of Fall weather except it'll still be almost hot.

How do they prepare for rising waters along the East Coast?  They build up the sand dunes.  It's not a permanent fix, but it does knock down the pounding surf much like our barrier islands.  The Atlantic has some action, but it's all far out to sea.

Fay was downgraded to a Tropical Depression this morning and the system off of Africa (Gonzalo) will only impact the Cape Verde islands.  So as Fall arrives at 7:04 PM tonight, know that the worst heat of summer is over.

We are not done with the 90+ days, but it appears the chances for another northern Gulf tropical threat keep decreasing.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the rest of our Hurricane season.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up and become a subscriber.  I will be on the road Wednesday with my next FB post coming on Thursday.  Stay tuned!