Time to Turn Out The Lights, Strong Cold Front Coming

 Every October, as a tongue in cheek way to close out the Hurricane Season, I've used the late "Dandy Don Meredith's" singing "turn out the lights, the party's over" as a way to signal our hurricane threat is over.  Years ago, once we reached early October, I brought the fictional "Fat Lady" in to sing.  However, in this current warming cycle, we had several (Juan, Zeta) Hurricanes cross the Louisiana coast after Oct. 15th.  I changed/delayed the Fat Lady singing until after I was sure the real tropical threat was over for us. In this super El Nino year, I am waiting for the season's first real cold front to arrive.  Well, wait no longer Gang as we'll need sweaters and jackets for Friday night into this weekend!  Why?  Look at the pattern shift coming.  On top is the current with the upper trough over the West Coast.

You can see how the pattern flips from the West Coast trough (middle view) to an East Coast trough by this Friday.  That will allow the coldest air of the season to flow south out of Canada. Most of Canada is in the 30s & 40s.

It's been cold enough for a blanket of snow to cover many parts of the Rockies.  That cold air will take several days to reach us and will modify as it moves over areas that will be in the 80s & 90s for the next several days.  I have the Fat Lady singing this Wednesday on my podcast as we'll review Don Meredith's funny singing and the reasons why we don't need to worry about hurricanes here until sometime next summer. To hear & see my podcasts, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  For the next 3-4 days, we'll be flirting with near record heat.

The real front is still way to our north.  Note the huge temperature drop behind the front.

As high pressure over us shifts to our east, the Gulf muggies will return.  You'll notice a different feel to our air by Wednesday as 70+ dewpoints return.

The satellite shows the Gulf quiet except for those low level clouds surging out of the western Gulf.

There is nothing to track in the Gulf, Caribbean & most of the Atlantic.  However, NHC is highlighting an area off of Africa.

The satellite view has the exposed center left of all the T-Storms as wind shear remains strong.  C'mon guys, give it up.  Don't waste anymore names over the next 6 weeks.  There is a strong Hurricane west of Puerto Vallarta that will recurve and bring rains to the desert SW.

For us, it's all about a real cold front coming chasing the last lingering feelings of summer.

Finally, some tidbits from FOX Weather.  The Pacific "ACE" (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) has broken the all time record with 6+ weeks to go.

The Pacific was supposed to be active in this Super El Nino year, but nearly 3X is kind of crazy.  A review of Isaias found some surprising results.

Typically, the worse side of any storm is to the right/east.

That was correct for rainfall and highest storm surges.  However, the strongest wind reports occurred west of the center.

I've read several reasons for this, including Isaias' circulation entraining drier air aloft on its western side bringing down the strongest winds there.  I'll leave that up to the researchers to study and figure out.  Clearly, the worse damages were from Navarre Beach eastward with Pensacola westward receiving much less impacts.  It's time to sing, "Turn out the lights, the party is over"...until next year.   Even though I hate cold weather, bring on those fronts!  Stay tuned!

History Repeats 31 years Later

Last Tuesday when NHC first began highlighting an area down over the SW Gulf, I showed you a map of Hurricane Opal back in October 1995.  Hurricane Isaias followed nearly the same track, but he was not quite as strong as Opal.  Opal reached a Cat. 4 weakening to a marginal Cat. 3 at landfall.  Isaias reached a Cat. 3 weakening to a strong Cat. 2 at landfall.  Let's compare tracks, beginning with Opal.

Now compare that to Isaias' track.

Isaias' landfall was 44 miles east of Opal's meaning less impacts for Gulf Shores, Orange Beach & Pensacola Beach and greater impacts for Navarre, Ft. Walton, Destin to Panama City.  Over the coming days, we'll find out how bad the beach erosion was east of landfall.  Isaias was a really strange storm.  For instance, the worse side of a typical hurricane is to the right/east of the centerline.  Look at the radar view shortly before landfall.

Note the lightning WNW of the center and the heaviest rain bands on the north side.

Once the eye/center moved inland, the rains ended as the southern Eyewall had little rain but still strong winds.  The strong SW wind shear was there along the coast, but it had little impact on Isaias since fast forward motion of the storm (NE) negated/lessened the upper wind shear.

She was still very symmetrical nearing landfall. Isaias also ended the streak of no hurricane in the Gulf or Caribbean in October during strong El Nino years.

As what's left of the storm, now heading into Tennessee, should continue to bring us dry air and pleasant temps on Sunday.

Note all the warm air to our west and north.  This next week will still feel very summer-like.

Finally, our first REAL cold front arrives next Saturday bringing us sweater & jacket weather.  Perhaps it's time for the Fat Lady to sing?  Stay tuned!