TD # 2 Struggling, Recon Plane On Way, New Podcast This Afternoon

 NHC at 10 AM upgraded Invest 91-L to Tropical Depression # 2 as her circulation is slowly becoming better defined.  However, recent satellite views continue to show a disorganize system that appears to be stationary.  T-Storms are trying to form around the center, but higher up drier air is limiting development.

The 1 PM NHC update indicates T.D. # 2 to be stationary (North at 1 mph) as they await data from the Recon aircraft.  Their track brings soon to be Bertha towards Louisiana, but the cone of error/uncertainty is rather large.

What if this storm goes on the far southern edge of the cone?  That would keep most impacts (wind, rain, surge) well off our coast.  I will be following that centerline track (as I have for 50+ years) to see which direction NHC is trending the path of the disturbance.  The spaghetti tracks have all shifted towards us with several remaining south of our coast.

That appears to be confirmed by the WPC & NHC rainfall forecasts. WPC is on top.

IF the southern track proves correct, the North Shore will receive little, if any rainfall.  The city south of Lake P. might get 1-2" with 4-6" along the coast.  The 10-15"+ stays well offshore.

There is a cluster of storms around Mobile this afternoon moving to thew south.  We should stay dry today with some storms reaching us as soon as late Monday.  I will have a new podcast coming up after the NHC's 4 pm update.

For you to see & hear me, you have to become a subscriber at $2/month.  I point out things that you won't find any other place.  To find out "What does Bob think?", go sign up now. I'll go over in detail what impacts we could expect depending on the track and what you should be doing tomorrow BEFORE this system arrives.  Stay tuned for next podcast!

 

NHC Increases Chances For Bertha, Watches/Warnings Later Today, Podcast This PM

 On their 4 AM Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC increased chances for development in the northern Gulf to 80%.  Translation...it will happen and and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will be issued by NHC later this afternoon once the Recon aircraft data is received.  The first plane is scheduled out after the noon hour so NHC probably won't start issuing advisories until after 4 PM CDT.

Those of you with computer knowledge of all the tropical website already have seen the spaghetti plots that brings whatever forms to Louisiana & Mississippi so I won't dwell on them.

What I will focus on during this afternoon's podcast is the structure of soon to be Bertha.

Clearly, T-Storms are not organized (yet) around what is becoming a better defined center.  RIGHT NOW, most of the storms are far away from the circulation center.  In the short term, today and Monday will continue very hot and mostly dry here.  The changes begin by Tuesday when the storm gets closer.  Here are some model graphics. The first are from Zack's morning program on FOX 8.

Certainly, IF this model is correct, all marine interests should prepare for winds 40-50 knots+ and a tidal surge of at least 2-3 feet.  I grabbed these model predictions from FOX Weather.

It's stupid to disagree with so many models focused together.  What are the bigger questions...where will the greatest impacts (Heavy rainfall) be?  and what wind impacts can we expect?  I will have my thoughts on this afternoon's podcast for my subscribers.  To see and hear me, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  

The cost is $2/month (one Powerball ticket!) and you get to hear my opinion.   You can go on line for free to hear the National Hurricane Center's discussion, but I will give you my take on what I see on my podcast.  We'll know much more later today after the plane gets into Invest 91 L.

IF the Euro model proves correct, most of the heavy rains will stay south of our coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.  As Zack mentioned on his program, whatever forms will not be strong or an "evacuation type" storm.  If you live inside our levee protection system, there should be few, if any problems.  I'll post again after 4 PM with the podcast to follow going into detail where the greater impacts will be.  Go sign up to hear "What does Bob think?"  Stay tuned!