Typhoon Erupts In WPAC, Wet Pattern Ending Here

I mentioned many times that Tropical Activity, worldwide, has been way below normal/average, including the Western Pacific.  But no more as a major (Cat. 3) Typhoon (Hurricane to us) is approaching Taiwan.  It will cross over that island and make landfall over a very populated coastline of China.

Fortunately, for the Atlantic basin, no model has development during the next 10-14 days.  Blame it on Saharan dust, unfavorable MJO or a max solar cycle.  We like it quiet.

As my long time colleague, Joe D'Aleo with Weather Bell Analytics posted, we are approaching a solar max. and in the past we have seen fewer storms during the Max part of the cycle.   Otherwise, all of the other factors still indicate the 2024 will end up very active.  But not right now.

 

There are waves coming off of Africa, but clearly the dust is still there.  Dust is our friend, but historically it dies off once into August.

The Caribbean remains quiet, while the western and northern Gulf are covered by numerous clusters of storms.  The bottom color view confirms no organization and NHC isn't talking about it.  I checked surface pressures and they remain high.  The cause of all the clouds and storms can be traced to a stalled upper pattern that has the upper Heat Dome over the West with a broad trough across the eastern 2/3rd of the nation.

But that upper pattern is about to change IF you buy into the GFS model.  Under the satellite view is the GFS valid for today, followed by what's predicted for Saturday AM with the bottom view valid for Monday.  What you see is the upper trough starts lifting into Oklahoma by Saturday with an upper high forming over us.  By Monday we're firmly underneath that high and that should mean far fewer showers and more sunshine & hotter temps.  Will it come in time for the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo that begins at dawn on Thursday.  You still have time to register for the Grand Prize, even if you don't come down to fish.  

If you can't come down to join President Kristine Russell, at least give yourself a chance for that grand prize.  Go to www.tarponrodeo.org to register.  Just because it's been raining a lot over the island, that could change for this weekend.

It appears Wednesday will be another above normal/average day of clouds & showers.  That forecast is shared by many from the Gulf Coast up into the Ohio Valley.

This is a very tropical air mass with high water values.  The rain rates can easily reach several inches per hour and any training of cells will result in street flooding. How wet has it been?  Zack Fradella had this graphic on his morning programs. No need to add a comment.

It's not all negative news.  More clouds & showers result in less hot temperatures which should mean lower energy bills compared to last summer.

I buy into tomorrow's 80% chance for rain, but I'm more optimistic for Thursday (40%), Friday (30%) & Saturday (20%).  Again, IF the GFS is correct, those lower rain chances will become reality and that will mean hotter temps (93-96) for this weekend.  I leave for Grand Isle Tomorrow and hope to see many of you during the next 3-4 days.  Hail Grand Isle & all Hail the 96th International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo. Stay tuned!

Current Pattern Bad For August & September

Received an e-mail from Joey G. asking me to explained why our current weather pattern is a bad one IF it lingers into the heart (Aug-Sept) of hurricane season. To begin with, our current pattern will NOT last even through this weekend.  Let's set it up with some upper air graphics beginning with today where the upper heat dome remains over the west with a broad eastern trough.

The middle graphic is valid for next Monday and already we have the hunts of an upper high building over the Southeast. The bottom view is valid 2 weeks from today with a full fledge Heat Dome centered over the central plains with the upper trough along the East Coast. What that would mean is this...IF a storm/hurricane came into the Gulf, it would turn to our east as it couldn't go into the Heat Dome.

Fortunately we have no storms currently as the nose of the Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High extends only into the eastern Gulf allowing moisture to stream over the western Gulf including us.  But all models continue to show the Tropics staying dead into August. Here's how the Tropics look from space.

The dust is still coming off of Africa along with tropical waves.  Dr. Knabb on TWC stated today "once we get to August, the switch flips", meaning we'll go from quiet to active.  At least that's what history tells us. I have found a mid level swirl that is creating clusters of storms over the western Gulf.

That should keep moving into Mexico tomorrow.  Otherwise, in the short term the pattern remains stalled with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the east resulting is storms from Texas across the Southeast.

The good feel air (dew points in 50s) has retreated and it's soupy over all of the Southeast into the Ohio River Valley.

The airport (MSY) finally got dumped on with greater coverage on the North Shore and fewer showers south & east.  In fact, the bottom satellite view shows the drier air slowly working westward towards us.

FOX 8 is way higher on rain chances than I feel.  IF the upper high begins to build over us, I see coverage dramatically lower by Thursday into the weekend with temperatures rebounding back into the mid to upper 90s.  Drier air for the weekend is exactly what we need on Grand isle.

Go to www.tarponrodeo.org to register for an opportunity to win the Grand Prize.  Rodeo begins at dawn on Thursday. Stay tuned!