NHC Increases Chances, Recon Scheduled For Wednesday

 Overnight there has been no major changes in thinking from NHC except to increase chances for development to 90% later this week.  That tells me, once they get a Recon plane down into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, and the plane finds a closed circulation, we'll have our 9th named storm ( Isaias),  By waiting until Wednesday to send down the low level Recon, that tells me NHC believes there is no well defined center yet.

You can see the old frontal boundary along the northern Gulf with two clusters of T-Storms.  One is NW of Tampa with the other a much larger system down in the SW Gulf.

The upper low that was over the Gulf has drifted into Mexico replaced by a weak upper high.  That is favorable for surface development.  In addition, the wind shear over the Gulf is low with the strong westerly winds across north Louisiana.

So the question becomes simple.  IF Isaias were to form, where will he go?  Since he hasn't formed yet, there is no certain answer.  However, since NHC designated this area INVEST 92-L, hurricane models can be run.

Now before you freak out, remember NHC is guessing at an initialization point.  I can find two mid level centers on the visible satellite loop.  Which one will take over?  That'll make a difference on track solutions.  On the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), they state folks from Louisiana to Florida should pay attention for later this week for tropical impacts. Here are the model solutions beginning with the Euro & Euro AI.

The Euro AI is stronger and farther to the east.  Here's the GFS and GFS AI

Like the Euro, the GFS AI solution is farther to the east.  Which one do I believe?  None of the above.  Until there is a center to track, it's folly to guess where landfall will occur.  What I do know is we have plenty of time to watch and prepare.  Regardless of development, this will NOT be an evacuation type storm for Louisiana.  It is way more likely to turn to our east so those of you along the AL/FL beaches need to pay attention.  We still have time for our first hurricane and several model intensities do just that.   I will have a FB post later this afternoon and a podcast tomorrow afternoon .  To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  Stay tuned!

NHC Increases Chances, Invest 92-L Likely to Become Isaias In Gulf Late Week, Hello Orange Beach

Sure, let's go to Orange Beach for my Birthday week getaway.  It's been a quiet hurricane season. What could go wrong? Well, I'm here and the views are magnificent.  The weather not the best, but I'm at the beach!

So what could go wrong?  As you know, NHC has increased chances for development in the SW Gulf to 80%. Translation...it's gonna happen.  They have already called it INVEST 92-L so model tracks can be run.

Right now, all we have is a frontal boundary draped along the northern Gulf with a mass of disorganized T-Storms over the western Gulf.  Early model runs are scattered all over the place.

These early runs should not scare you since they lack an initialization point.  In other words, NHC is guessing at where a center might be.  A Recon aircraft is scheduled out for tomorrow if necessary.  My guess is this will be a slow developer, and a plane won't go out until Wednesday.  Here are the Euro & GFS AI models with the Euro on top.

The time is valid for Saturday morning, so the models are in good agreement.  IF these early tracks are correct, we would be on the weaker/dry side of the storm with mainly coastal impacts.  Do I believe a named storm will form?

Just based at how the wind shear over the Gulf has decreased, yes, I think we'll be dealing with a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane later this week with landfall sometime on Saturday.  I will post again in the morning and will do an in-depth podcast Tuesday PM IF necessary.  You have to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber to know "What does Bob think".  Otherwise, surf the internet, check the NHC website, and watch FOX 8.  Stay tuned!