NWS increasing Rain Chances, Pineapple Express Showing Signs of Life, New Podcast

Gosh, it hasn't rained since Oct. 4th (24 days) so any chances for showers should be welcomed...except if they come on this Halloween weekend.  Models are showing and NWS is indicating high rain chances for Saturday PM into Sunday midday.  Now it's hard to disagree with our improved model technology, except my past experience tells me it's often hard to break out of a dry spell unless there is a "Triggering Mechanism" (surface front, upper disturbance).  Let's begin with the NWS thinking.

 

I agree with their "Rain? Seriously???"  70% on Saturday PM is pretty aggressive when there is no cold front involved.  I like to track features on satellite loops, but all the features are far away from us.  There is a strong upper low NW of Seattle, the remains of Trop. Storm Vance moving into Mexico and the hints of moisture spreading from Hawaii with the sub-tropical jet stream (Hawaiian Express).

                            

But where is the trigger to produce showers for us this weekend?  We have no fronts around.

We do have the surface high off the East Coast with a warm bubble of air all the way up to Green Bay.  70+ dew points are showing up over south Texas so low level moisture is on the increase.  But what will trigger our weekend showers?  Models show it.  NWS is forecasting it, so all local stations are calling for it.  I'm just tossing out the past issues of breaking out of dry spells.  I'd like to see something on satellite/Water Vapor loops to confirm what models are showing.  Aside from the remains of Vance, I don't see much to trigger 70% rain chances.  We'll see.

 

Right now, radar is seeing a few showers heading into Texas.  Compare that to the moisture with the remains of Vance moving into Mexico.  I believe that moisture from Vance moves into Texas & Oklahoma and stays to our north and west.  Just trying to figure out what will break our current drought.  When in drought, leave it out.

I think the only thing certain regarding this weekend is the TIME CHANGE. We set our clock back one hour before you go to sleep Saturday night (Fall Back).  Tomorrow's podcast is about my trip back to Orange Beach after Hurricane Isaias.

The beach looked great and you can watch it by going to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber. Stay tuned!

 

Slim Rain Chances This Weekend, Last Rains Oct. 3-4th, Next Podcast Thursday

There was a story in today's Advocate/Times-Picayune that was the classic example of bad luck.  A Louisiana couple decided to have a destination wedding on Grand Isle on Oct. 3rd. Sure enough, those were the only two days it rained this month so far.

It's a really cute story and all ended well even though it was wet.  After 23 dry days, we need some rain.  I'm not as convinced as the local broadcasters are (60% chance) for showers this Saturday on Halloween.  Here's why.

As I mentioned yesterday, the sub-tropical active jet stream is just starting to take shape.  I've outlined the disturbances in yellow with the main flow in blue.  The stronger systems are west of California and over the northern Rockies.  There are no fronts/triggers over the southern states.

The current showers over Texas are associated with a weakening upper disturbance.  Another weak disturbance will approach us on Saturday bringing a slight chance for a few stray showers.  Remember, when in drought, leave it out.  A stronger front will arrive late NEXT Tuesday giving us a better chance for rain.

Note that San Antonio & Dallas are still 80+.  Until we get a front moving through, I'm not getting excited about rain chances.

I think 20-30% this weekend seems more reasonable, meaning most of us stay dry.  Next Tuesday's front might bring 60-70% chances, but even then, that might be too high.  We will finish October way too warm. Finally, my next podcast will feature my trip to Orange Beach after Hurricane Isaias.  Coming up in early December will be my wedding podcast.  To see & hear both of them, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  Stay tuned!