So Why Wasn't It Named? Tropical Surge Here Late Week, GFS Does It Again

 While I was up in Kentucky for Grandparent's Day last week, a massive Nor'easter stalled off of Long Island and made for a miserable weekend for millions.  I've seen many videos of the winds and flooding due to 8+" of rain coupled with coastal high tides.  Many on social media are wondering why NHC did not give this system a name when it was impacting so many?  Clearly, it has a burst of T-Storms around its center.  We start with where it is today and what it looked like on Saturday.

At the very least, it was briefly "sub-tropical" as the east & south sides were over the warmer waters from the Gulf stream.  So why wasn't this given a name since it impacted so many?  Messaging?  Not wanting to scare folks?   I've heard the damage estimate is in the neighborhood of $1-2 BILLION.  Here's my issue.  Look at 3 named storms and their locations.

Hanna is up far north, Fay is below it with Gonzalo way out to the east.  All named, but no land impacts.  I get it that the Nor'easter wasn't truly tropical, but the impacts were similar to a Hurricane.  Bryan Norcross says the U.S. should have a system in place that names all impacting storms that are not truly tropical.  The discussions will continue.  As we leave September and head into October, our focus shifts to the Gulf & NW Caribbean where we have a large area of disturbed weather.

Currently, the Gulf has an upper low that extends down into the NW Caribbean creating a hostile environment for any tropical development.  But conditions become more complicated later this week as tropical moisture from Polo shifts eastward along with an upper trough over the Rockies.

That will kick out the current upper low over the Gulf and allow a surge of moisture that could cause some flood issues along the northern Gulf for this weekend.  Here's what the WPC's rainfall forecast calls for the next 7 days.

If you look closely, the amounts across SE LA/MS are 4-8"+.  As the upper trough with Polo shifts to the east, it will bring a cold front close that will be the forcing trigger for the heavy rains. We begin with the forecast valid for Friday.

It appears the first front runs out of support and waits for a second front for early next week.

What I'll be watching for is any development down over the Gulf once the front pushes offshore.  No model does that with these fronts.  However, the GFS and the GFS AI have a storm in the Gulf for the following week.  The GFS AI is on top followed by the GFS valid out two weeks away.

Let's remember, this is the GFS that is rarely correct beyond several days.  Hurricane Opel did development in the same location back in October 1995 and ended up over Pensacola.  I'm pretty certain we'll see cold fronts before the 15th that should steer anything that might form and turn it to the east well south of the LA/MS/AL coasts.  I will hold off on the "Fat Lady" singing until after October 10th.

The short term looks dry for this week.  However, FOX 8 has a First Alert for Saturday into Monday for potential flooding rainfall.  We have plenty of time to watch how the approaching frontal boundaries interact with all the Gulf moisture.  My podcast this week will focus on what I think might happen.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up as a subscriber.  Stay tuned!

Nor'easter Pulling Away, Gulf Moisture Returns, Grandparent's Day In KY

While much of New England had a nightmare of a weekend due to a stationary Nor'easter, its rotation brought down drier air/lower humidity to all of the Gulf South, including us.  It made for a terrific weekend up in Bowling Green, Kentucky, where my fiancée, Valerie, and I attended Grandparents' Day at St. Joseph's school & Church.  When we left this morning, the temp. was 56 degrees!!! Here are some photos.

It was a long drive, but well worth spending quality time with family.  Valerie and I have purchased a "tiny house" for my son & daughter-in-law's farm outside Bowling Green so we'll be able to visit more often and have a place to stay.  A future podcast will be on the "tiny house" and how Kentucky will become part of our lives.  But you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com to view it.  Weather-wise. NHC keeps naming storms way out in the Atlantic, with the Pacific still very active with 3 hurricanes/typhoons.

 

Tropical Depression Fay & new Tropical Storm Hanna will bother no one.  We will get through all of September without a Hurricane.  That hasn't happened since 1907 & 1914.  As the Nor'easter pulls away, we'll see Gulf moisture return by late this week.

Grace Williams showed that moisture return coming for later this week.

The moisture from Polo should stay to our north and west, but it's the return of the Gulf moisture that arrives Friday & Saturday.

We need the rain since it's been dry all weekend.  

The increased rain chances will lower our highs, but the real cool air doesn't arrive until NEXT week.  I have put in a call to the "Fat Lady" to sing for us by Oct. 10th  No model shows anything developing in the Gulf so it's time to "turn out the lights"!  Stay tuned!