Friday, November 27, 2020

Major Pattern Change Coming...

For most of November we have been enjoying temperatures above normal, which means highs generally in the 70s & nights in the 50s.  That is about to dramatically change as the upper trough over the west shifts to the east coast resulting in much colder air coming here for the next 2-3 weeks.

You can see why in these 2 graphics.  The top one is the current upper 500 mb (18,000') flow while the bottom is the forecast for Dec. 10th.  The deep trough over the east should result in freezing temperatures over the North Shore possibly reaching the South Shore once we get into December.

You can see how cold it is out west.  Once the upper trough shifts to the east, we'll be scrambling for the heavy weather gear.

In the short term, we're stuck under an extensive cloud cover associated with a stalled frontal boundary. Temps are in the 50s & 60s north of the front while we're 75-80 south.  Dew points around 70 give us a soupy, summer like feel to the air.  Most of the rains today should be north of the Lake shifting south towards dark.  The front may briefly sag southward on Saturday before jumping back to the north on Sunday.  Sunday looks to be the wettest day before the cold dry air plows in for next week.

There remains the potential for widespread heavy rainfall (4-6"+) to our west with locally 3-5"+ amount here during the next 2-3 days.

The upper low is back over New Mexico with lots of clouds hugging the Gulf from Texas to Florida.  Expect the rain shield to shift over us later this afternoon and evening.  This will not be a pretty weekend.  Stay tuned!

Thursday, November 26, 2020

Thankful Year of the Virus Almost Over...

2020 has not been a great year for most of us.  Some have lost loved ones, many have lost jobs.  The Hurricane Season was awful for Louisiana and, after a long hot summer, we look forward to colder air.
Some of you want to see snow like this scene from It's a Wonderful Life.  Believe it or not, some snow could fall as far south as the mountains of northern Georgia early next week.  Models still bring a freeze threat for the North Shore Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Right now, there are no major storms in the U.S.

In the short term, a weak front has stalled over us that will keep our rain chances high through Sunday.  Clouds show the SW upper flow across the northern Gulf with several disturbances triggering waves of rain.

Yesterday the South Shore got wacked.  Today it's the North Shore.  It will not rain all the time, but expect outdoor activities to be hampered by rainy periods.  Happy Thanksgiving Gang.  Stay tuned!