New CSU Forecast Unchanged, Next Podcast Discusses Why, Daily Storms Return Here

Dr. Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issued their final 2026 hurricane predictions for the 2026 season today.  Surprisingly, He is keeping his July numbers unchanged despite the fact that models are indicating no activity for the next 7-10 days and this season is running out of time to get going.  However, the peak activity occurs around September 10th, so we still have 80%+ of the season to go. Here's their numbers.

Since we already have had 2 named storms, that means they expect only 7 more during the next 3 months. My next podcast will detail all the issues keeping this season quiet so far.  To subscribe to the podcast, go to bobbreck.com.

The cost is only $2/month to hear what does Bob think?  Or you can just go to the various internet sites, including NHC's to hear their thinking.  Thanks to all my subscribers who have renewed for another year, as you understand Knowledge + Experience = Trust. For now, we have nothing to track.

There is a boundary separating deep tropical moisture from the slightly drier air over us, but that will change later this week.

The Southeast is less hot due to clouds and showers from a departing upper low.  Already, our dew points have returned to 70+ and, coupled with daytime heating, we have popped some T-Storms.

These are slow moving storms with lots of lightning, very typical of an August afternoon.  Get a storm, you're not as hot.

The increase in rain chances on Monday is due to that deep tropical moisture spreading over us.  Remember, my next podcast is tomorrow, so go sign up to join the Breck crowd.  Stay tuned!

New CSU Forecast Wednesday, Next Podcast Thursday, Typhoon Dolphin Threatens Okinawa

The well-advertised Super El Niño is on schedule, and that, along with Saharan Dust, is killing any tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  Just found a great graphic on Facebook that says it all. It's from a site called SnowbirdBob Weather, based on the European model forecast for the next 6-10 days.

The Gulf and Caribbean have no cloud clusters as the upper shear will not allow anything to develop.  I will be shocked if Dr. Phil does not lower his named storm number of 9 down to 8 in his Wednesday update.  I will focus on what I think about the rest of this season in my next podcast on Thursday.  To become a subscriber, go to bobbreck.com.

The cost is $2/month to hear/see graphics and explanations that you won't find elsewhere.  Thanks to all of the subscribers that have renewed for another year.   So the Dust continues to keep the Atlantic quiet. Even the EPAC has shut down for this week.

Only the Western Pacific has active tropical activity with strong Typhoon Dolphin (120 mph) threatening to pass near Okinawa where the U.S. has a large airbase.  One wonders if this is one of those tropical years where activity worldwide stays below normal?  The only other story is our brief break from the summer muggies.

The cut off upper low has brought some relief from the summer heat especially east of the Mississippi River.

Dew points will slowly climb back above 70 for the rest of this week and that should allow for more daytime heating storms.

The extended has daily rain chances back which means typical summer time weather for SE LA/MS.  Don't forget the new CSU update is tomorrow and my next podcast is on Thursday.  Go sign up and join the Bob Breck Podcast.  Stay tuned!