Another Super Typhoon, Dolly Coming to Atlantic

 The next 4-5 weeks are the heart (most active) of the Hurricane Season so it should come as no surprise that tropical activity Worldwide is picking up.  Let's begin in the Atlantic where NHC is highlighting 3 areas for development.  The least likely to receive a name would appear to be the most northerly one nearing Portugal that is above 40 north latitude.

This is definitely a strong low pressure, but it is near 45 degrees north latitude and is involved with a cold front.  Never in the past( Under Bob Simpson, Neil Frank, Bob Sheets & others) would NHC give this a name.  But times have changed.  The better chances for a name should come from a system coming off of Africa or one SE of Bermuda.

There still seems to be significant Saharan Dust coming off of Africa, but models are developing something next week.

Models and not developing this small swirl SE of Bermuda and NHC only gives it a 20% chance.  The Gulf has several clusters of storms that extend east of Florida, but there is no organization.  

The real tropical activity is in the Pacific where there are multiple named storms.

The strongest is Typhoon Saudel that is already a Cat. 3 storm and is expected to become a Super Typhoon soon.  We still have Hurricane Lala streaming northward away from Hawaii while a much weaker Tropical Storm Moke is heading well south of the Islands.

Models are indicating more named storms are coming in the EPAC next week.

That is exactly what is supposed to happen in a strong El Nino year.  Pacific is active while the upper shear makes the Atlantic less active.  Locally, we're hot and dry, but another upper system is dropping our way.

It should give us a better rain chance tomorrow, hopefully keeping us less hot.  The FOX 8 extended doesn't say that.

So I won't whine about this heat as August is always hot.  What I will complain about is the lack of traffic law enforcement in Jefferson Parish, specifically Causeway and Veterans.  The intersection is clearly marked.

Not one, not two, but three NO LEFT TURN signs.  This view is northbound.  There were 10 cars ahead of me and EIGHT of them made illegal left turns.  The next day, same story except only 6 made the illegal turn.  The Sheriff's office says they can't commit the manpower to enforce the laws and many motorists know that.  So I say to Sheriff Lopinto. Joe, take the signs down so those of us driving legally can also make the turn instead of going to the U-turn.  Same intersection has signs saying NO TURN ON RED.  Same story, no enforcement.  End of rant.  Stay tuned!

Tropics Worldwide Awaken, Something Coming To Atlantic? Local Storms Tonight

As we remain in the MJO phase 6 (sinking air), the part of the World that is in the favorable phase is the Western & Central Pacific.  However, the MJO is heading towards phases 7 & 8, which means our part of the world will enter the favorable phase as we head into September.  Let's look at the big picture.

There are 2 Typhoons in the Pacific along with a Tropical Depression SE of Hawaii.  The two areas in the Atlantic that NHC is following have little chance of developing, especially the one west of Portugal.

It would be a shame if NHC names this system that clearly is north of 40 degrees and associated with a cold front. The other SE of Bermuda at least has some warmer water around it.

CPC highlights an area out in the MDR that models indicate possible development next week. There are several waves out there just waiting for the MJO to move into the favorable (rising air) phase.

The Caribbean is quiet with a few clusters over the NE Gulf and east of Florida.

All storms remain disorganized, and no model hints of close in development.  We do have some storms moving down under a NW upper flow.

FOX 8 has been doing live cut-ins all afternoon regarding these severe storms.  Keep tuned to them for the latest.

You can see where it has rained as temps are less hot.  That's the only relief coming this weekend as temps will again be 95-100.

As we approach the anniversary of Katrina & Ida on August 29th, next week's podcast will look back on what we learned from those two storms.  To see that podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Thanks to the hundreds of you who have renewed for another year.  I appreciate your support and enjoy being your local Hurricane Authority.  Joining now will allow you to go back and view all past podcasts, including the most recent one explaining the MJO. Stay tuned!