TD 2 Struggling, Watches for LA/MS Coasts, New Podcast This PM

 The new weather word of the day is "meandering", replacing "wobbling that has been used for years.  NHC is describing the path of motion of T,D. # 2 as meandering over the eastern Gulf.  Perhaps some social scientists told them that is a clearer way to describe wobbling?!!! Either way, this system hasn't begun a definitive forward motion just yet.

So far TD 2 is walking like a drunken sailor trying to return from shore leave!

The 11 AM EDT advisory does NOT strengthen TD 2 because upper level wind shear is too strong not allowing storms to form around her center.

Clearly, most of the T-Storms are being blown south of the center and that's likely to continue.

The upper high over the central plains is building to the east and that should keep the strong NE shear over TD 2.  NHC will probably name it Bertha, but they have lowered the intensity forecast from 60 to 50 mph.  In fact, when it reaches (if it reaches) the Louisiana coast, it might barely be a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm.  The upper shear should also keep it very lopsided with the bulk of the rainfall staying offshore.

Radar has almost all of the rainfall offshore of Florida right now.

Wave heights have increased over the eastern Gulf, but buoy information around the center shows no tropical storm force winds.

So maybe the models can help us figure out where TD 2 is going?  Nope!

The Spaghetti plots are useless.  At least the NHC hurricane models give the feeling of a westward motion and not northward.  Because of that, NHC has issued a storm surge watch from the mouth of the River eastward to Florida.

In addition, they have issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Morgan City eastward into Florida.  Because of this, I will have a special afternoon podcast to tell you what I think & WHY it will NOT effect the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.

To see and hear my thoughts and opinions, you must subscribe to my podcast for $2/month.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up. Stay tuned for my next podcast update!

TD # 2 Struggling, Recon Plane On Way, New Podcast This Afternoon

 NHC at 10 AM upgraded Invest 91-L to Tropical Depression # 2 as her circulation is slowly becoming better defined.  However, recent satellite views continue to show a disorganize system that appears to be stationary.  T-Storms are trying to form around the center, but higher up drier air is limiting development.

The 1 PM NHC update indicates T.D. # 2 to be stationary (North at 1 mph) as they await data from the Recon aircraft.  Their track brings soon to be Bertha towards Louisiana, but the cone of error/uncertainty is rather large.

What if this storm goes on the far southern edge of the cone?  That would keep most impacts (wind, rain, surge) well off our coast.  I will be following that centerline track (as I have for 50+ years) to see which direction NHC is trending the path of the disturbance.  The spaghetti tracks have all shifted towards us with several remaining south of our coast.

That appears to be confirmed by the WPC & NHC rainfall forecasts. WPC is on top.

IF the southern track proves correct, the North Shore will receive little, if any rainfall.  The city south of Lake P. might get 1-2" with 4-6" along the coast.  The 10-15"+ stays well offshore.

There is a cluster of storms around Mobile this afternoon moving to thew south.  We should stay dry today with some storms reaching us as soon as late Monday.  I will have a new podcast coming up after the NHC's 4 pm update.

For you to see & hear me, you have to become a subscriber at $2/month.  I point out things that you won't find any other place.  To find out "What does Bob think?", go sign up now. I'll go over in detail what impacts we could expect depending on the track and what you should be doing tomorrow BEFORE this system arrives.  Stay tuned for next podcast!