FOX Weather Pushing Gulf Low, Stalled Front Means Soggy Weekend

Some computer models & the FOX Weather Channel continue to hint there will be a Gulf low forming late next week down in the Bay of Campeche.  NHC is having none of that as they do not highlight any area for development except way out in the Atlantic where the remains of Fay still linger.  There is a lot of disorganized storms over the Gulf, but the swirl down over the Bay of Campeche is an upper low.

An upper low typically makes for a hostile environment regarding tropical development.  But that low is moving westward taking the highest wind shear with it.

Gulf surface waters are still plenty warm, but the deeper Oceanic Heat Content has pushed into the southern Gulf and with the Gulf Stream eddy coming out of the Caribbean.  My only concern will be how will the weak fronts sagging southward interact with the deep tropical Moisture?  Here are the forecast positions from the WPC beginning with Saturday followed by Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

It's this front sagging into the southern Gulf that FOX Weather says something might develop.

Again, NHC isn't talking about this since it's still a week away.  IF something were to develop, I would have daily podcasts, but you have to be a subscriber to view those podcasts. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  I thought FOX Weather had an interesting graphic about what Hurricane letter has been retired the most?

It's the letter I.  The next named storm will be Isaias.  Coming so late in the season, it's highly unlikely it will become a major storm unless it developed down over the higher heat content.  Of course we want to see those Canadian fronts start coming and one is by Oct. 17th if models are correct.  It's certainly getting colder up over Alaska & much of Canada.

We have about another 10-14 days of summer-like warmth before we'll need sweaters and jackets for the second half of October.  The slow moving front that will make for a wet weekend here is not far away.

It is cooler behind this front (60s & 70s), but it's not the real cold fronts of October that will end our tropical threats.  They will come after the 15th.  The less hot temps this weekend will be due to clouds & rainfall.  Remember, 100% chance of rain does NOT mean it will rain 100% of the time. We will have many dry hours too.

Finally, it continues to be an active tropical season over the Pacific where we have 3 hurricanes/typhoons.

While the Atlantic has the second lowest ACE on record, the Pacific is 2 & 1/2 times above normal.  No signs of that changing.  Enjoy your weekend and keep the rain gear handy.  Stay tuned!

New Podcast Today, Gulf Low Unlikely, Rainy Weekend Probable

 Those of you who are subscribers to my podcast should have received an email notice telling you to log in for this week's edition.  It focuses on the next several weeks and what are our chances for a late October Tropical threat.  It talks about when will the "Fat Lady" finally sing "turn out the lights, the party is over!"  but you can't see it without becoming a subscriber for $2/month.   

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  Next week I'll review the history of the song "Turn out the lights", and when will we finally be able to not worry about a hurricane threat this year.  Come join us.  Locally, all the TV stations are hyping this coming wet weekend that has already canceled many fairs & fundraisers.  It's hard to go against model guidance, but there are several things that could happen to not make this weekend a total "washout".  Let's review what we know.

There is a surge of tropical moisture expected to rotate around the Bermuda High and interact with several frontal boundaries sagging down from the north.  WPC has shifted the heaviest (5-10") rainfall to our south and east keeping us in the 2-4+" amounts.  It all depends on the movement southward of these cold fronts.

My take is these fronts don't have much cooler air to force the lift to produce the heavy rainfall.  That lift will come from daytime heating, meaning there should be many dry hours both Saturday & Sunday.  As the fronts sag slowly into the Gulf, drier air should set in for next week.   So the next question is, could a low form along the front offshore in the Gulf?  I don't think so and here's why.

The Water Vapor view shows a huge upper low down over the Yucatan with dry air across thew northern and western Gulf.  That will not allow tropical development.  However, look into how the low leaves for next week. By Monday (Oct. 5) it's gone replaced by an upper high that would be favorable for development.

However, by the 10th, a big dip of strong winds dives across Texas into the Gulf bringing an end to any tropical threat.  I remember back in 1995, Hurricane Opal formed in the Bay of Campeche and became a major Hurricane the first week in October.

Opal made landfall over Pensacola giving them two direct hits in one season.  In fact, that year Pensacola and south Georgia west of Valdosta had two direct hits from storms.

Crazy things happen in weather so let's not be caught off guard by this weekend's heavy rain threat.

FOX 8 has issued a First Alert for Saturday & Sunday so I want you to pay attention if you plan outdoor functions this weekend.  Make sure you have your FOX 8 Weather App set up to receive all the severe weather warnings and notifications.  We need some good soakers since we have been dry.  Let's hope the heavy downpours space out and give the pumps time to catch up.  Stay tuned!