Models Seeing Atlantic Activity Next Week, NHC Responds, Cristobal Coming Soon?

Yesterday I showed you three models that hinted at some kind of tropical development in the MDR (Main Development Region).  Today's model runs continue that same theme and NHC has responded by highlighting 2 areas in the Tropical Atlantic that will likely see development.  

Both these systems will be fighting the Saharan Dust layer to the north, but it appears they will stay far enough south so that the dust will have less influence. The Euro brings(Cristobal?) to the north east of the islands likely never threatening land areas.

The GFS has two systems taking a more southerly track.  The first heads into the strong wind shear across the Caribbean and dissipates, while the second tries to approach the Islands by 8-20.

I go back to what I've always said..."computer models struggle with weaker storms", so let's not read much into solutions 10-14 days away.  Remember the strong shear over the Caribbean.

So whatever tries to form out in the MDR will really struggle to get through the upper wind shear.  My concern is closer in formation, not coming from the Caribbean.

There are several clusters of disorganized T-Storms, but neither shows any signs of low level rotation.  With the MJO currently in phase 6 (sinking air), I really don't think anything will get started until the MJO goes back into phases 8/1 (rising air).  My podcast next week will focus on the influence of the MJO to tropical development and why that might be the most important reason/ingredient needed for formation.

If you want to see and hear about the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  Don't wait until we have another hurricane threat in the Gulf as we enter the most active period (Aug. 15 to Oct. 10th) of the 2026 season.  The season is about ready to explode in the Pacific.

The colors correspond to Yellow 20%, Orange 40% and Red 70%  There could be a threat for Hawaii later next week.  Stay tuned!

Dolphin Swipes Okinawa, Atlantic Setting To Get Active? Still Lots of Dust

In yesterday's post, I mentioned the 1983 Hurricane season but forgot to tell you the TOTAL number of storms was only FOUR!  None of the named storms came from the MDR, and all of them formed much closer to the U.S.  The first (Alicia) didn't form until Aug. 15th but turned out to be the biggest (Cat 3) system that year, slamming Houston.

I point that out because several computer models are hinting something will try to form coming off of Africa during the next week.  We have the Canadian on top, the Euro in the middle, with the GFS on the bottom.

The Canadian & European are more bullish with the GFS not seeing much.  However, the Canadian brings something towards the graveyard of upper Wind Shear (Caribbean) while the Euro will fight the lingering Saharan Dust layer.

With the extensive dust layer plus the MJO in phase 6 (sinking air), anything that does try to form will struggle and be short-lived.  The Water Vapor still has lots of upper TUTT Lows around, coupled with strong westerly shear over the Caribbean, and I think that might be why NHC still hasn't highlighted any areas to watch.

It doesn't mean there's nothing to look at.

There are several clusters of disorganized T-Storms along with a couple of mid level lows to watch, but no model has any development for the next 5-7 days.

Currently, the deepest atmospheric moisture is east of Florida, and that, to me, would be the most likely area to see any short-term development.  I'm thinking, for next week's podcast, I might try to explain what the MJO is and why it's so important during the Hurricane Season.  If you want to hear and see my thoughts, you have to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The cost is only $2/month, and I thank the hundreds of you who have already renewed for the rest of this year.  Tropical action remains below normal globally.  The Eastern Pacific (EPAC) has nothing right now.

There is a weak swirl SE of Hawaii (yellow circle), but it has no storms around it.  Only the WPAC (Western Pacific) is active with Typhoon Dolphin.

Dolphin's intensity has made a comeback (Cat. 3 120 mph) overnight as its eyewall brushed Okinawa.  It is now heading towards China, staying north of Taiwan.

Locally, it's been a day of slow moving strong storms with lots of lightning.  

Without any tropical activity, this will be a typical August weekend.  We may see some of that deeper Gulf moisture move over us by Monday.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!