Models Nailed The Timing, Bark Worse Than Bite, Hail Endymion!

It was pretty impressive watching the computer models predict the timing of our weekend rains 4-5 days ahead of time.  Models shifted/delayed the rain threat slightly from their initial forecast, but all in all, they nailed it coming over night Friday and gone before Saturday's parades.  I attended Endymion, but this time it was down on the street.  For 30 years, I rode with the Grand Marshal's float and then enjoyed the festivities in the Super Dome. This year was a different experience being down in the crowds of people who were eating, drinking, and having a good time hours before the parade arrived.

I was with my new partner Valerie and she made sure the old Bob Breck was back.

If you have never been to a night parade, it's quite the experience as all the floats are now using LED lighting that is spectacular.  It begins with the horses but quickly picks up into the multi-decked floats, the first one saluting the late Ed Muniz, the founding Captain of the Krewe.

From there, it was all eye candy.

After 38 floats, I was exhausted but grateful for being there to see and experience Mardi Gras at its finest.  Hail Endymion!!!  Before I get into the coming weather, let me recap the past severe threat, which I consider was over hyped by SPC and local broadcasters.

 

I had mentioned the likelihood that the strong squall line would weaken as it approached us. It actually held together all the way into Florida, but there was only one storm report near Folsom, where some minor roof damage was reported.  The highest wind gust locally was 44 mph at Lakefront Airport.  My point being, if you cry wolf for every time a slight chance for severe weather approaches, and the "wolf" never comes. Then you lose the public's trust for future storm threats.  Just my opinion, but it's why you follow this blog.  Today we got hosed by lingering low clouds.

With the low cloud deck, temperatures have struggled to reach 60.  However, the winds are light, and these are not rain clouds.  Tonight's parade weather looks great IF you're dressed for it.

You can see the warming trend back to our west.  IF we can break out of the low clouds on Tuesday, temps will quickly climb into the 70s.  That's due to the pattern shift that now has the trough along the West Coast with an upper ridge moving over us.

This should keep us warm and dry for the rest of this week.

It's a different story for the West Coast and Rockies.  Much-needed rain & snow has returned with several more storms expected later this week.  For us, we stay warm through Saturday.  Winter is NOT over here as next week we'll need our coats & sweaters again.  Until then, Happy Mardi Gras !!! Stay tuned!

Parade Weather Timing Looks Great, Storms Overnight, Severe Threat?

On my podcast Thursday evening, I downplayed the possible severe threat coming late tonight and explained why.  All day yesterday and again this morning, local weathercasters were pushing the severe weather coming for tonight.   The local NWS office & even SPC (Storm Prediction Center) indicate such a threat as they have most of Louisiana under a level 2 risk tonight.

However, I don't feel like the current setup will bring severe storms HERE.  The timing would be great for all parades as the rain comes overnight. But let me explain the WHY of my thinking.  We have a well-defined upper trough that will drag a cold front into an increasingly moist air mass coming out of the Gulf.  But note, the trough is "positively (leaning forward) tilted".

Unlike a negatively tilted trough, a positively tilted trough USUALLY doesn't have the huge split in the jet stream that enhances upward motion.  That shows up in the Water Vapor images.

There is a slight split in the upper flow (red line), but that is mainly to our north.  WPC (Weather Prediction Center) confirms where the heaviest rains should fall.

In addition, I just feel the lack of any real cold air behind the cold front is a signal that any severe storms will be limited HERE. Denver is 50 degrees at 1 PM.

Is the severe threat zero?  Of course not, but to keep crying wolf day after day only increases anxiety when I don't feel the threat is very high.  Here's the timing of the "squall line" based on this morning's model run from Hannah Gard.

I guess because I'm old (and more experienced!), I've seen time after time where the line of strong storms weakens as it approaches us.  It arrives at a time of zero heating, making instability very limited.  Will we have gusty winds tonight & tomorrow?  Absolutely!  I'm taking my rain slicker to Endymion tonight just in case some stray showers develop.  But it appears the timing of the rain will NOT affect any of the parades tonight or Sunday.  Monday & Tuesday look great!

I will have my FOX 8 weather app ready in case any showers develop this evening.  Keep your phone by your bed overnight in case any warnings are issued.  The greater risk will occur between 2-4 AM for most of us, and we'll probably sleep through it all.  Remember to use sunscreen for the day parades as 6-8 hours in the sun can give you quite a burn.  Stay safe, be happy, and stay tuned!