Wednesday's Severe Threat Staying Far North, Another Cold Front Coming

It seems ever since Fat Tuesday we have seen a very fast progressive (west to east) flow across the nation. Storm after storm traverses the country first bringing rain & snows to California and then severe weather to the Plains & Southeast.  The latest system coming out of the Rockies has prompted SPC (Storm Prediction Center) to issue a level 2 severe outlook for areas north of us.

That's where the main dynamics will be.  The difference form the last severe system is the limited amount of Gulf moisture that is returning northward.  Remember we had dew points 70+ surging out of the Gulf?

With this system, dew points in south Texas are still in the 50s.  So with less fuel to work with, I expect us to barely squeeze out a few showers Wednesday evening as the cold front sweeps by us.  The upper system is over the Rockies this afternoon bringing extremely strong winds (50-70+ mph) ahead of it. Dust storm warnings are up for NM/TX & CO.  

Clearly what drives these Spring storms are the upper dynamics & the temperature contrasts.  Temps are in the 20s & 30s over the mountains while 80s are surging northward all the way up to St. Louis.  We'll still be warm on Wednesday, but will need sweaters and jackets for Thursday and Friday.

This up and down pattern is likely to continues as storms are lining up off the West Coast.  

More storms coming means more snow for the Sierras.  You can see how the snow pack stands out on this afternoon's satellite view..  Off the East Coast, NHC is no longing watching yesterday's swirl for development since another low moving off the coast has created strong wind shear over it.

The primary reason we don't see Tropical weather in March is the water temperatures are too cold.  Aside from the Gulf Stream moving up east of Florida, water temps are in the 60s & 70s.  To fuel tropical activity, temps need to be 80+.   We have to deal with Spring time severe threats in March & April.  We don't need to worry about the Tropics for several more months.  Finally, I read that 100 years ago today, the Great Tri-State (MO,IL,IN) tornado killed 695 people with 234 of them in Murphysboro, IL alone.   Back then, no TV, no cell phones & no warnings since NWS didn't start issuing warnings until the 1950s.  Thankfully, technology has come so far that we at least know a tornado is coming.  Still, if it's an EF3,4 or 5, survival might be impossible.  No such issues for us here tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Next Severe Threat Staying Well North, Not Done With Cold Fronts

I was driving around running errands this afternoon listening to the "Scoot on the air" radio program on WWL radio. He got into a discussion about how the last two severe weather events turned out to be nothing for those of us south of Lake Pontchartrain.  Scoot acknowledged that there was some severe damage & deaths farther to our north, but he felt all the local broadcasters just followed computer models and all looked the same.  Even mentioned how Nash would use his grease pen to draw arrows explaining what was going to happen and perhaps maybe somebody might try going back to that (Not going to happen!)  Let's just say, given the amount of sounding the Alert for this recent severe event, the weather under preformed the hype.  But not everywhere.  Here is a map showing a very destructive & deadly tornado that started in Louisiana.

The drone video showing trees snapped off like matchsticks certainly detail what was at least an EF-3 tornado strength around Tylertown.  For those folks, the severe threat was not over-hyped.  Still 3 died in Tylertown despite what I thought were excellent warnings that is was coming.  Reminds me of the Xenia tornado (April 1974) that killed 36 in ONE TOWN!  Warnings were out 15-20 minutes ahead of time, people sheltered in their basements, yet many died under the debris field that buried them.  Fortunately these super tornadoes don't happen that often despite what the media might say.  As a matter of fact, the last EF-5 strength tornado hit Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013 some 12 years ago. Yes there is another severe threat (level 2) coming for this Wednesday, but it's well to our north

The energy for this threat is hitting California today with more rain & snow.  It appears this will be three years in a row where their rainy season is above normal.  For us, Tuesday will be another delightful day before some clouds and a few showers arrive late on Wednesday.

Look at the warm-up coming on the back side of the surface high over us.  80s have soared into Kansas.

We should be 75-80 on Tuesday with lower 80s on Wednesday.  Behind the front, Thursday morning will be chilly.  Finally, can you believe the National Hurricane Center is watching a system in the Atlantic?

NHC says they don't expect this low center to develop since it is moving into upper-level shear.  So why mention it?

C'mon, don't make us nervous BEFORE the season even gets here!  Stay tuned!