Friday, May 22, 2009

Getting close to TD # 1?

NHC tonight indicates that the chances for the Gulf Low to become Tropical Depression # 1 have increased from 30% (low) to 50% (Medium). That's because there has been a flare up of T-Storms just north of the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to fly into the system Saturday morning. It is surprising to me to see this flare up because the disturbance has left the warmer waters of the Loop Current and is moving into high 70s Sea Surface Temperatures. Motion appears to be mainly due north and that would bring the circulation center inland between BIX & MOB keeping us on the drier side. 5-10 inches of rain could fall east of GPT-BIX eastward to the Florida beaches tomorrow. We'll see some wrap around moisture (1-2" in isolated spots) during the day tomorrow & Sunday, but there should be many dry hours. Rain chances should return to basic daytime heating storms for next week as temperatures return to the upper 80s.

I'll be attending a wedding on Saturday so I won't be able to update the blog until Sunday. Enjoy your weekend here and feel badly for those who went to the Florida beaches for some sunshine!

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