Sunday, August 16, 2009

Claudette a Surprise in Gulf?

NHC has made TD 4 tropical Storm Claudette as of the noon hour. Watching TWC this morning, their on camera "meteorologists" kept saying how surprised they were to see this system develop in the Gulf. Where were they last night? If you go read my 9:30 PM Saturday night blog, I indicated there was a well defined circulation west of Ft. Myers. None of our local stations picked up on it either in their 10 PM broadcasts. A surprise? Only if you weren't paying attention and just read what NHC was saying at the time.

T.S. Claudette will not last very long as she is moving NW at 14 mph. That should bring the center onshore sometime near dark. This is a small system and her effects will not reach westward over to us. The other two storms (Ana & Bill) remain very far away. T.S. Ana is forecasted to move into the Caribbean Sea tomorrow and then head over Dominican Republic/Haiti later in the week. If that happens, her circulation should not survive the high mountains (10,000'+) of that island and NHC weakens her into a depression or wave as she heads toward the Gulf late next week. Could Ana regenerate once in the Gulf? Sure, but that's still 5-6 days from now. Plenty of time to watch her.

T.S. Bill will soon be the season's first hurricane. His NHC track keep him well east of Florida recurving before he threatens the U.S. East coast. Bill should not be a concern for us. Next blog update this evening.

12 comments:

Caveman said...

Forecasting a tropical event to occur with just little over 14 hrs lead time is not really anything to be too proud of, now if it was forecasted say 24-36 prior yeah would then give some kuddos...

What's your forecast for landfall?

J said...

How about the fact that neither NHC nor the locals (except Bob) picked up on the event?

weatherwatcher said...

I think the point is that Bob was the first to notice a depression was most likely developing when everyone else was oblivious to the signs. Still trust Bob over the others.

Bourbon St. Blues said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bourbon St. Blues said...

I think TWC does things like that to make things more than they really are and to put that fear into people...that OMG a tropical system is so close to home and in the Gulf...and then those people start checking TWC more often...a ratings thing maybe.

Thanks Bob for keeping us well informed...

So I guess Danny is coming soon...

Caveman said...

Well the link to Bob's understudy giving the 10pm forecast does not say a word about the tropcial wave developing into a TS, matter of fact she says it's not showing much development with very little rotation. She never mentions it developing into a depression or anything near a tropical storm, Bob may have mentioned that possibility in his blog but nothing on air and why not? NHC has been discussing that wave in their discussions long before she turned into Claudette, do you really think they would not see a depression forming in their front yard? Many of the forecasters at the TWC are members of the same AMS that Bob belongs to.

Caveman said...

Uncle Bill's landfall prediction is Lake Charles area as a cat 3.

Bob Breck said...

In my early comments, perhaps you notice I put quotes around the title of METEOROLOGIST. The point being that if you want to use that title, then be one and not just a reporter of the weather given to you by NHC or NWS.

Everyone remember CAVEMAN's prediction for Bill...Lake Charles as a Cat. 3. Of course he doesn't say why but is radically different from NHC's prediction that takes Bill far east of Florida never getting into the Gulf. Maybe he's a brilliant forecaster that should be at NHC? Of course there are no consequences for his being wrong.

Caveman said...

Caveman just wanted to see your reaction to that prediction!

Why can't local meteoroglist issue weather warnings?

wewatchbreck said...

Lake Charles my latte. Don't worry, Bob, we are used to Mr. Stone Age. He shows up every season on your blog to stir things up a little... keep it hoppin' Good to see you again Cman. Glad to see you know where to come for the facts. Meteorologist is how you spell it, by the way.

Beans said...

Cha ching Bob and we watch breck!!
C man if you're not good out of the playground you go!!!Remember last year???

ONLYREAL said...

LOL @ Caveman!

Hey caveman, What caused you to think that Bill is going to Lake Charles? Did you actually analyze Maps, Model Data, and other info? Or did you ask the Magic 8 Ball?

Just Curious...