Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Computer Flip-Flop Brings Storm to Gulf...

Yea Yea, I saw the latest GFS run that now brings a strong Hurricane into the Central Gulf late NEXT weekend. That's still 12 days away! Am I concerned? not yet. Should we be complacent? Absolutely not! However, my good friend at NHC tells me... remember the GFS model is "notoriously unreliable"!!! Bottom line...let's see if day to day model runs show some consistency during the next 5-10 days. My motto...I don't worry until a storm gets into the Gulf.

A weak front has pushed into the Gulf bringing drier air that should keep any showers offshore thru Friday. With that frontal boundary over the Gulf and a tropical wave expected to enter the eastern Gulf on Sunday, we'll need to monitor that area for possible development Sunday night into Monday. In the short term, mostly dry(as VIPIR predicted on Monday) for Thursday & Friday before rain chances increase Sat-Monday.

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