Sunday, August 9, 2009

Hurricane Season about to get active?

We're only 4 weeks from reaching the historical peak (Sept. 10th) for hurricane activity and it appears the waves coming off of Africa are not developing...so why would I say the season is about to get active? I recall 2 previous years (1983,1992) where the "A" storm didn't come until mid August. Oh sure, Andrew did form out of a wave off of Africa, but Alicia was far difference. She formed from an old weak frontal boundary that waddled off our coast into the northern Gulf. This coming week, another east coast trough will try to form and that may bring down a weak front into the Gulf South. IF the upper trough is deep enough, the surface boundary could push offshore over the warm waters of the Gulf. That is something I will be watching for this week. My gut tells me, IF we are to get a storm in the Gulf this season, it will not come from the tropical Atlantic, but rather from a system like Alicia back in 1983...a distrubance forming along an old frontal boundary. Fortunately for us, Alicia moved westward to Houston. But despite only a short few days over the Gulf, she became a powerful Cat. 3 Hurricane. Keep your guard up my friends. We are entering the most active 8 weeks, historically speaking, of the Hurricane Season. Will the quiet trend continue? Let's hope so.

7 comments:

trabae123 said...

I saw Invest 99 on Wunderground.com, watching, and waiting. Hoping and praying we won't have to go on a Hurrication this year. Thanks for all the great expert advice over the years!

Baxter said...

Here's to Hoping. My Girlfriend Moved Here from New Jersey in May. It Has Been a Nice Welcome so Far.

nicolew said...

trabae: no kidding. I'm not a fan of the Hurrication.

Let us have a year without a storm in the Gulf...we need it.

ONLYREAL said...

I'm not too concerned about 99L, we should pay more attention to the Tropical Wave behind it, which is supposed to travel at a lower latitude and could become a strong Hurricane. But its early and very very far away and there is plenty of time to watch if it develops.

ONLYREAL

Basanti Daal said...

We prefer to use your site for the weather, even though the new radar is very interesting on Fox 8. Why? No bothersome commercials on your site, Bob. Thanks.
By the way, we think the reason Hammond has been so hot this year is due to the development that is going on here. Unfortunately, we don't have an enlightened city authority that protects the trees/environment here (like they do in St. Tammany). So many trees are being cut for the new mall and new housing--more concret/asphalt with no green space--and the now they are planting PALM trees instead of indigenous trees at the mall! Go figure. I guess they like the Sahara atmosphere.

Caveman said...

"By the way, we think the reason Hammond has been so hot this year is due to the development that is going on here."

???????? OK

ONLYREAL said...

We need to watch the Gulf of Mexico closely in about 4-6 Days. Right around the time the front you showed on TV this evening gets in the Gulf a Tropical Wave will be rolling in from the East. Could spell for some tropical mischief.

ONLYREAL