Tuesday, August 4, 2009

New Hurricane Forecast...No Surprise

As I mentioned last week, Dr. Gray's Team lowered their forecast numbers down to an average season...10 named storms...4 hurricanes...2 major. A developing El Nino is the reason for the lower numbers...however... A British company (Tropical Storm Risk) came out today with HIGHER numbers (12,8,3) indicating warmer sea surface temperatures during the past 2 months will result in those higher numbers. So who's right? Dunno, but I do know at least we can verify these predictions come the end of November, unlike the alarmist predictions of computer modelers going out 50-100 years. Since I am not a researcher, I don't predict beyond 5-7 days, but my gut feeling is this...IF we can go past August 15th without a named storm, the likely total for the season will be between 6 & 8 storms. Doesn't really matter as we need to be ready for just ONE.

Hey, I was in Chadds Ford PA. this past weekend for my Mother-in-law's birthday. Had a great time, but I couldn't help notice that whether it was on radio or TV, EVERY weathercaster called themselves "Meteorologist". Can't help but feel that title has been used and misused throughout the country. Will go into what the AMS says are the requirements a broadcaster should have to use that title in my next blog tomorrow.

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