Thursday, September 3, 2009

Strange Hurricane Season Continues...

Recalling the past couple of years, it seemed that every little swirl in the tropics developed into a tropical storm or hurricane. Despite having 4 named storms this year, it just appears that something is happening to depress tropical development coming off of Africa this summer...and I'm not complaining about that ! NHC this afternoon has downgraded Erika to a depression and says she's likely to just dissipate during the next 1-2 days. So we return our focus to the Gulf where we are likely to see showers & T-Storms increase over this weekend. An upper trough has dug way down to the Yucatan this afternoon and it is forecasted to retrograde (shift westward) back towards Texas by Saturday morning. This will place us on the "wet side" of the trough so this coming weekend doesn't look real promising for outdoor activities. At the moment, none of the computer models develops any areas of low pressure, but that's something for us to watch. Looking long range, another deeper trough next week will bring down yet another stronger cold front. Dare I say we're approaching sweater time ?

6 comments:

S.B.B. said...

Does El Nino affect the waves coming off of Africa - that is to suppress them? Whatever it is, we are grateful.

Thanks Bob!!

ONLYREAL said...

Bob,

The thing that is suppressing Tropical Development this year is sinking air. MJO has been below-normal worldwide this year. This is causing the most important ingredient in Tropical Cyclogenesis (Pre-Existing Disturbance) to be weaker then normal. That is what I think has happened this year.

Regarding the Tropics, The Westerlies are very strong right now in the Gulf and will remain strong till further notice. I can't wait for that deep trough to come in late next week and that will include a strong cold front. This front could bring the coolest weather we have had in Months. Hopefully it can knock the Gulf Waters down a degree or two.

Finally, looking at the Models all I generally see is Trough after Trough after Trough after trough. If those models are correct that pattern would steer any long tracking storm away from the Gulf Of Mexico, and all we would have to worry about is something popping in the Gulf.

ONLYREAL

J said...

How reliable is the GFS model? It seems to be indicating some development of the low over the weekend with it approaching the LA coast Sunday evening.

ONLYREAL said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ONLYREAL said...

J,

The GFS model has done poorly this year with Tropical Cyclogenesis developing many "Ghost" Storm's.

Now regarding the system there is a little model support for a surface low to develop at the tail end of the frontal boundary in the West-Central Gulf of Mexico in about 3-4 Days. The only Models that I could find that hint some kind of surface low to form in the Gulf is the NAM, GFS, and VIPER. But whether or not it will be tropical in nature is still unknown. As of now it just looks to be nothing more than a Rain Event. The bottom line is that its September in the Gulf of Mexico so we need to keep a close eye on it.

ONLYREAL

Caveman said...

I just let the pros at NHC do the hurricane forecasting, they never had Erika becoming a hurricane while others expected it to become one overnight not to long ago. Kudos to the NHC