Tuesday, September 8, 2009

VIPIR Brings Us Tropical Rains Saturday...

While we have the 2nd Hurricane of the season in Fred tonight, he is so far from land that I'm not gonna pay attention to him...no reason to. Our focus this week will be on the Gulf where our VIPIR model is bringing a weak low/trough northward surging tropical moisture into Louisiana late Friday into Saturday. Am I concerned? Not at the moment since we have such strong upper westerly (shearing) winds over the Gulf that will prevent any rapid development. However, it is September and even a weak system could bring us some flooding rains so, yes I will be paying attention...and so should you. We'll know more the closer we get to the weekend, but suffice to say, if you're planning an offshore trip this weekend...better change your plans!!!

Thanks to Bill R. for pointing out Hurricane Hilda coming onshore SE Louisiana in 1964 as a Cat. 2. A Hurricane doesn't have to be Major (Cat 3,4 5) to kill lots of people. My second year in TV in 1972 saw Hurricane Agnes move onshore in Florida as a Cat. 1. She would end up killing hundreds in inland flooding. My point stands regarding October Hurricanes. Only once (1893) have we seen a major storm cross our coastline. Does it mean we're out of the woods once we get to October? Of course not, but our odds of that big storm that requires evacuation goes way down.

This week...I see no cold fronts coming. In fact, it may be another 10-14 days before we see a front arrive that brings back that "good feel" air. Expect daily spotty T-Storms Wed-Fri before rain chances increase for Sat-Sunday.

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