All right all you Bastardi bashers. I thought his logic was sound regarding the "hurricane frenzy" he predicted several days ago. Agree his alarmist 5-6 hurricanes hitting the U.S. might be a little over board, but then again the tropics sure look poised to explode tonight. TD 8 has formed in the Western Caribbean and, if it stays over water, should become T.S. Harvey on Friday. Several systems have come off of Africa and computer models are developing them. Trying to guess where either will go before they have formed is not what I do. I wait until NHC deems them a named storm and then we try to determine what the steering, or lack of, will be down the road. Several models have flipped flopped from Houston to east of FL up to the Carolinas on a possible track, but remember, for an accurate forecast we need an initialization point and so far we're just guessing. So instead of bashing other's thoughts/opinions, use this forum to discuss well thought out ideas. Way too soon for the Breckster to get nervous. Stay tuned!
In the short term, the upper ridge will slide over us for Fri-Sunday and a heat advisory will be in effect as highs approach 100. Only a stray shower will bring any relief from the heat. Shower chances increase next week as the ridge retreats back to the west.
15 comments:
BOY THE TROPIC'S ARE REALLY GETTING BUSY NOW
He may well be right about 5-6 storms happening in a row. It happened last year around this time. But I think saying 5-6 in a row would strike the US for sure is a bit irresponsible and dangerous whenever a forecaster hasn't even pinpointed what type of atmosphere and direction of the storms. Because all storms are not created equal.
I mean the one just off of Africa is a bad looking storm but it might well go out to sea or die off. The one in the central Atlantic is the only one that counts for now.
Getting really nervous about this cruise now.....Some models show a gulf system by the middle of next week! I know not to worry until Bob says to worry though....Just don't want to be confined to inside areas of a cruise ship!
I JUST HOPE THAT WE DO NOT HAVE TO LEAVE IF A STORM COMES BECAUSE I COULD NOT STAN BEING AWAY FOR 3 MONTH'S
As of now I think we'll be fine,even if 97L forms and gets into the gom we will be on the west side of the storm,unless something changes, the closest this storm would get to us, would probably be ms.
NEXT WEEKEND IS THE 6TH ANNIVERSARRY OF HURRICANE KATRINA
kingd:
I don't want a GOM storm at all... The cruise ship will not leave the port if there is a hurricane in GOM.
Let it go anywhere but and I'll be ok.... Don't wish bad luck on anyone else but just have to take this vacation!
yikes...forgot about the big "K" anniversary approaching. Monday August 29th, will be 6 years to the day since Katrina devistated our city. Now on the heels of that anniversary we have another possible threat to the central/eastern gulf coast!
Well I don't want it in Mississippi. Can't you pass it on to at least the Florida Panhandle as a weak storm.
I think interaction with land could hurt it especially if it hit the Dominican Republic and the length of Cuba. Fascinatingly the SHIPS model strength forecast is not liking it as much as it like what is now Harvey in the beginning.
Some people are mentioning a similarity to the track of Hurricane Charley.
C'mon Irene....
You heard it first from Caveman!
I never used to get worried about hurricanes until Katrina. Now since it is harder for me to get around I get down right scared, whenever this season comes around. I don't know, I have a feeling about this year. I know it may sound ridiculous but it goes like this. 2005 Katrina, three years later in 2008 Gustav, now three years later 2011 this year, what's next? Not to mention, has anyone looked at the calender? A week from this Monday is the 29th. Exactly 6 years since Katrina. I just hope we'll be safe this year and nothing comes. But like Bob says, we just have to wait and see. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Joe Bastardi is a well respected forecaster. He went to school and studied to become a long range weather forecaster. All of y'all who are bashing him probably don't have a degree in meteorology so you shouldn't talk about his forecasting methods, calling them "irrespondsible."
Just like we've heard a million other wrong predictions from Caveman, the Joe Bastardi of the comment section.
Right now the current models have a storm around? Tampa Bay (GFS and Euro I think) a week from Sunday, in the evening. Right NOW it could be "just" a Cat 1-2.
Again...they are just computer models, nothing more. Informed speculation at best.
Thanks for all that you do Mr. Breck.
Someone pointed out the 3 year cycle in the month of August. With Katrina hitting on the 29th and Gustav was around the same time, here we are exactly 3 years later. I think we are all just on edge cause it almost seems like a pattern. Hopefully things will be different this time around. On a humorous note, a friend of mine had a baby days before Katrina and was 7 mos pregnant with her second child when Gustav hit. Well, the good news is she is not pregnant nor did she just have a baby. Perhaps this will be our saving grace. We often tease her that as long as she is not pregnant, we are safe from storms. Relax and let's not worry til there is something to worry about.
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