Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Summer in the South...Models Useless...

I know the folks who develop all the computer models are very brilliant people, but lately all their short term models have been flip-flopping almost daily.   Last weekend the GFS had a storm coming into the Gulf, but on Monday's run, the models lost it.   Same story with a weak upper disturbance coming out of Mississippi.  Models stalled it off the mouth of the River for 2 days.  Reality?  It ended up east of Mobile today.  Another upper swirl north of Dallas is predicted to drop over east Texas & western LA. tomorrow.   That would keep us mostly dry.   But why should I believe the models?   Seems everyone is married to the models & no one wants to fail.  I try to interpret movement on satellite loops and predict from that motion.  The problem during summertime is motion becomes erratic and changes over night.  Sooo, we're back to trying to trust the computer models, or as they say..."the best science available".   When someone asks me "is it going to rain tomorrow, or this weekend?"  I've decided the best answer is...Yes, somewhere!

Models (here we go again) continue to hint that something (TD) might develop over western Caribbean or southern Gulf late next week.  Stay tuned!

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