TD 5 formed this afternoon well east of Barbados and is expected to become Trop. Storm Ernesto on Thursday. NHC has difficulty on forecasting intensity, but I must agree with them on keeping this system rather weak for the next 3-4 days. The GFS & ECMWF both strengthen Ernesto to a hurricane late Monday of next week and take him across the Yucatan into the southern Gulf making landfall in south Texas. Obviously, a track that far out is a pure guess and it's far too soon to know 1) if Ernesto will survive the shearing currently over the Caribbean and 2) how he might react to a track closer to the mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean. The next 5 days will be wait & see if we need to worry. Right now...NO! Stay tuned.
Little relief is likely from our current heat wave. Maybe a couple of stray PM storms???
No comments:
Post a Comment