Sunday, August 26, 2012

Isaac heading more west...

After reading the comments on my blog, it's obvious many of you view the same info that I do. Rather than repeat what you already know, let me give you my take.  1) it has picked up forward speed (20 mph) which will make it very difficult to make a sharp turn to the north. 2) It is a tropical storm that could become a strong hurricane IF it goes over the loop current in the central Gulf. 3) Models have been and continue to be all over the place.  Remember the ECMWF had Isaac going to Pt. Arthur 2 days ago, now take him to MOB...as does this morning's run of VIPIR.  Models don't do well with weak storms. 4) Today is our "pay attention" day as Isaac enters the Gulf.  Will he strengthen as NHC predicts?  Remember they had predicted Gustav would become a Cat. 4 when he was coming off Cuba, but he never did get that strong.  Translation...don't get caught up in intensity numbers as NHC struggles with that aspect of prediction.   5)  Focus on center line...however, a hurricane has different effects depending on which side of that line you are.  Our concern is NHC keeps shifting that line closer to us.  If that trend continues today, we'll need to prepare for the worst (power outages, flooding outside levee system) on Tuesday-Wednesday.  If Isaac goes to MOB, we'll see little impacts on LA..  6) I'm getting on a plane and heading back to MSY.  FOX 8 will have an expanded 9-10:30 PM newscast tonight with updates thru out the day.  See you soon & stay tuned! I'll update this PM.

8 comments:

Rainbow68 said...

Gustav was a 2, but many trees were down here in Baton Rouge. I guess we'll know more tonight?

Mary and Derryl said...

Thank you Bob from Mary and Derryl in Destin. We must be in Metairie today. We hang on EVERY nuance from you for all our weather, especially now. We don't get your level of weather interpretation here in Florida. Ever. You are our weather anchor. Love you! and Thank you!

Celeste said...

Bob, I read your blog from Houston, to gauge whether I should be concerned about storms. Thanks for updating!

AlbanySnowMaker said...

Thanks bob we'll be looking forward to you being back on the air... Looks like Isaac has his eyes directly on crescent city...

"retired" weather pro said...

it's still way too early to call the location of the landfall in the gulf.
looks like anywhere from texas to the florida panhandle. I spoke with nash last night in a seance in the quarter and he thought it would be mobile. bob is correct in hedging his call.

Bourbon St. Blues said...

Last night at the Saints game, my friend next to me had just about all speghetti plots going straight to New Orleans and MS Gulf Coast. When I got home they still continued having this storm going to the panhandle of FL.

What gives, were the Speghetti plots wrong or outdated to have such a contrast with what live coverage was saying.



James Bell said...

Maybe you can shed some light, because I'm totally confused. The officials in the area seem completely lackadaisical about this storm maybe making landfall close to or in the metro area Wednesday morning. That is less than 72 hours! Remember all the finger pointing about Katrina that the citizens didn't get enough advanced warning. I stopped in Lowes on Vets and there were a lot of emergency supplies to be had, but no customers. Even the gas stations seem slow. Not sure I understand, but being a former Boy Scout I prepare for hurricane season on June 1st and stay ready till December 1st.

alsimmo1 said...

Can you please post ur opinion on the storm given all the new stuff about intensity has come out. Do u still feel it will be a cat 3 or 4?