Sunday, August 26, 2012
After reading the comments on my blog, it's obvious many of you view the same info that I do. Rather than repeat what you already know, let me give you my take. 1) it has picked up forward speed (20 mph) which will make it very difficult to make a sharp turn to the north. 2) It is a tropical storm that could become a strong hurricane IF it goes over the loop current in the central Gulf. 3) Models have been and continue to be all over the place. Remember the ECMWF had Isaac going to Pt. Arthur 2 days ago, now take him to MOB...as does this morning's run of VIPIR. Models don't do well with weak storms. 4) Today is our "pay attention" day as Isaac enters the Gulf. Will he strengthen as NHC predicts? Remember they had predicted Gustav would become a Cat. 4 when he was coming off Cuba, but he never did get that strong. Translation...don't get caught up in intensity numbers as NHC struggles with that aspect of prediction. 5) Focus on center line...however, a hurricane has different effects depending on which side of that line you are. Our concern is NHC keeps shifting that line closer to us. If that trend continues today, we'll need to prepare for the worst (power outages, flooding outside levee system) on Tuesday-Wednesday. If Isaac goes to MOB, we'll see little impacts on LA.. 6) I'm getting on a plane and heading back to MSY. FOX 8 will have an expanded 9-10:30 PM newscast tonight with updates thru out the day. See you soon & stay tuned! I'll update this PM.
Posted by Bob Breck at 7:16 AM