Monday, July 22, 2013

Hurricane Numbers Keep Dropping

As we head toward August and the heart of Hurricane Season, it seem all the experts are lowering their early predictions a smidge.  Seems they are under estimating the dry air layer coming off of Africa keeping the main development region out in the Atlantic quiet.  There is a wave that NHC is giving a 30% chance of development, but most models don’t do much with it.  I really hate tracking stuff that far out since I feel after several days, the viewer gets storm tracking fatigue!  We still can reach double digit storm numbers, but I think 12-14 is more likely than the 16 + most are calling for right now.  Stay tuned!

 

In the short term, we should see fewer storms as we’ll be on the “drier side” of the upper east coast trough.  Heading west towards Texas?  Hot and Dry.   Heading east to the Florida beaches?  Higher rain chances.   We’re in between with our best chance late in the day after 4 PM.

1 comment:

Charles Plaisance said...


Over predicting + hype = higher insurance cost! Charles from Larose $1500 more per year for me.
Great job Bob! Thank you for all the years!