Pay Attention to Southern Gulf...

Late last month I mentioned on my blog that the MJO would go favorable (rising air) during the 1st part of July.  So it should come as no surprise NHC is sending out the alert (10% chance) to watch the Yucatan & southern Gulf later this week.   Currently, very strong SW-S winds (shear) cover much of the Gulf, but you can clearly see an upper high developing (light winds) over the Yucatan.   We are now on the wet side of an unusually deep upper trough so look for our low level moisture and rain chances increase for the next 3-4 days.  Late Friday & on Saturday will be the best chance for heavy rainfall.  Tonight's VIPIR run hints at a small rotation forming south of the Louisiana coast by Saturday morning.  With many leaving for a long weekend at the beach, let's all pay attention to the Gulf so no one is surprised by tropical development this weekend.  Stay tuned!