Friday, August 22, 2014

Pay Attention Gulf...

I'm a little concerned tonight that nothing has formed with this wave moving north of Puerto Rico.  Why?  Because the longer this system remain disorganized, the greater danger it becomes for Florida & the Gulf coast.  IF a tropical storm were to form overnight or on Saturday, it would most likely be caught up by a trough along the east coast and turned to the north.  However, if this system remains weak and ill defined, it is more likely to keep moving to the west across Florida and into the Gulf for next week.  That doesn't mean it would develop once in the Gulf, however, we would need to pay more attention just because it might come closer.   Remember, NHC models do not do well with weak systems.  Don't be snuckered by all the models that take this out to sea..   Until we have a well defined center,  we have nothing to track.  The Hurricane Hunters will be back out again tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

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