Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Pay Attention Time

Not surprising that the Tropics are getting active as today marks the historic peak in activity.  Several clusters of T-Storms way out in the Atlantic could develop into our next named storms, however, much closer off the east coast of Florida is a small cluster of storms.  One computer model (Canadian) bring this into the Gulf and to the Louisiana coast by Sunday while no other model does that.  My take is 1) there is nothing there yet and 2) computer models don't do well with small, weak systems.    Do we blow it off?  Certainly not since whatever moves off Florida will drift over the Loop current providing it ample energy to strengthen.   This is pay attention time.   NHC has a plane scheduled out on Thursday.  I do not have high confidence in this weekend's forecast.   Stay tuned!

Egad, The Weather Channel had a feature on today that was trying to make us believe scientists have some skill forecasting 36 years in advance.   Need I say anything?   Read the paragraph above regarding the uncertainty about THIS WEEKEND.    What is TWC's agenda?  I'm clueless.

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