As we approach mid October, historically we still can see several more named storm(2-3), but the threat to the northern Gulf is greatly diminished by the increasing winds aloft that steer storms well to our east. We have quickly added 2 new names this past weekend (Fay & Gonzalo) but neither will impact the U.S. I suspect that NHC will find another 2-3 names before the season wraps up with a grand total of 10+ named storms, right in the range of most early season forecasts. With cold fronts coming on a more frequent basis the next few weeks, our attention will now shift to our secondary severe weather season.
SPC has placed all of the Gulf South in the severe weather threat area for Monday PM into early Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will blow through pushed along by a vigorous dip in the jet stream that will be the trigger for the heavy storms. The good news is the air behind this front will bring back the good feel (low humidity) air and the need for sweaters and jackets, especially at night. North Shore will see some 40s with 50s on the South Shore. Did some yard work this past weekend and it was way too hot...even for me!
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