Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Hurricane Season Predictions

I know, we still have nearly 2 ½ months to go, but the numbers are coming out.  Reading Jeff Masters’ (Weatherunderground) & Joe Bastardi’s (WeatherBell Analytics) blogs virtually agree that the 2015 season will be “below average” (7-9 named storms) with 1-2 major.   Joey B. says above normal central Gulf waters might focus early season activity on the Gulf of Mexico?  He believes our 10 year streak of no landfalling major (Cat.3 +) storm will end.   That is a fairly safe prediction since the law of averages starts to factor in.  Dr. Masters believes a strengthening El Nino will curtail the number of storms.  But does any of that matter?   I have always felt the early hurricane predictions are rather useless since they 1) have shown limited skill and 2) (more importantly) can’t tell where or when.   I like the idea of below average numbers, but we have to prepare regardless of numbers.  I’m too old to worry about the Hurricane Season until it arrives.


In the short term, our early Spring preview will continue with highs 80+ through Saturday.  A weak front will get close tomorrow giving us a slim shower chance.  The best rain chances will arrive Saturday night into Sunday with the possibility of some T-Storms.  That’s when another upper disturbance will approach.  Stay tuned!  The Spring Equinox occurs at 5:45 PM on Friday.

1 comment:

JetfireK said...

Thank you Bob. It's always good to jog our memory reminding us that we do still have hurricanes that may or may not disturb our style of living.

Delighted that you are doing so well. Take care and always best