At the Hurricane Conference last week, Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State(Dr. Gray’s co-worker) said all of their predictors that they look at to forecast storm numbers hint at a below average/normal season. However, there is an unusual warm pool of water over the central & northern Gulf that could mean issues for Gulf coast states. In the short term, that warm pool is likely to mean we’ll see some heavy rain storms along late season cold fronts. Once we get into late May-early June when wind shear usually lessens, we’ll have to pay attention to any old frontal boundaries that sag off our coast. Hurricane Alicia formed that way in August of 1983 south of the LA/MS coast and moved west into Houston. Not saying something like that will happen again this year, but the set up is there.
Our Summer-like week will continue with little rain the next 1-2 days before a weak cold front nears Friday PM. Our VIPIR model takes the front off the coast bringing slightly cooler and drier air here on Saturday. NWS keeps rain chances 60% for Saturday as they believe the front will stall near us. Wherever the front stalls, there will be the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially with that warm pool of water just to our south. Stay tuned!
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