Monday, June 8, 2015

Model on to Something?

A weak frontal boundary is staggering into north Louisiana tonight and will be in our neighborhood Tuesday night.  The WSI RPM model is bringing a line of storms down ahead of the front between noon & 3 PM.  These storms sag down to the coast and dissipate after dark.   However, the model appears to form a weak area of low pressure along the old boundary late on Wednesday and heads it into Mobile Bay for Thursday.   Let’s see if we see consistency in model runs on Tuesday.   We could just as easily see that weak area of low pressure develop  closer to us giving us heavy rainfall instead of Mobile.  Regardless, we’ll see much higher rain coverage for the rest of this week.  As that boundary “washes out/dissipates”, a deep southerly flow of tropical moisture will mean daily heavy/strong Late morning to afternoon storms with amounts of 1-2”/hour causing some minor street flooding.   The increased cloud cover & rain coverage should keep temps mainly below 90 before another upper high builds for next week.  That could mean our first real heat wave (92-96)…yikes!

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