The average date during the last 30 years for our 4th named storm is August 13 according to Prof. Peter Yaukey of UNO. Today NHC quickly went from TD #4 to Tropical Storm Danny within 6 hours & satellite loops tonight continue to show an organizing system. Danny could become the season’s 1st hurricane as soon as Wednesday PM. He currently is over 3,500+ miles away…that is more than 10 days even if he came straight to us! Anybody who believes computer models can predict accuracy beyond 4-5 days really doesn’t know much about meteorology, where the uncertainty increases dramatically with time. Years ago, the government forbid the release of the NHC model information to the general public since they believed many would not understand the uncertainty. With the freedom of information act + the internet, anybody can view any model without having any understanding how the models differ. What we now have is HURRICANE HYPE on the internet blogs every time a system forms. My goal is not to scare, but prepare my viewers IF a threat is coming. Tonight, in fact, even next week will be too soon to know IF Danny will ever be our problem. Get a grip folks.
Locally, we should see at least 2-3 more days of above normal clouds & showers before a weak upper high returns over the weekend bringing back the summer heat. Stay tuned!
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